NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	90		Excitement	6.4 [524]		MVP	Rasheed Wallace (POR): +19.8%
Portland Trail Blazers	97		Comeback	2.5 [811]		LVP	James Posey (DEN): -11.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raef LaFrentz	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.09	0.03	-0.01	11	68%	0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.03	0.06	-0.02	7	57%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nick Van Exel	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.18,0.16,0.09,0.06,0.01	0.03	-0.05	-0.03	25	51%	0.01	0	0.00	7	86%	0.01
Chris Andersen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George McCloud	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	10	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Avery Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.01	9	64%	0.03	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.03
Scott Williams	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	-0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	7	50%	0.00	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.2	0.20	0.12	0.08	-0.00	16	70%	0.25	1	-0.05	11	73%	-0.01
Shawn Kemp	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.05	-0.00	8	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
Dale Davis	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	69%	0.04	1	-0.03	6	50%	-0.03
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	8	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Kerr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	3	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	15	44%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Rick Brunson	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	6	42%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Derek Anderson	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.12	0.01	-0.04	13	35%	-0.04	1	-0.03	8	62%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	1.6	25.7	15.5	24.4	2.4	31.1	126.5
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN -1.8%

POR +19.8%

POR +23.4%

POR +6.3%

POR +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	POR	NBA	DEN	POR	NBA
this game	17.7	16.8	15.6	105.9	118.3	102.3
season	16.1	16.0		99.7	105.0
opponent	15.6	15.2		102.2	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	17.9	16.9	19.6	16.5	17.7
POR	16.3	20.1	14.7	16.3	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Bowen	32	30	0.28	-0.78	1.06	-0.04	11	-18	29	17.1	18.1	-1.03	19.2	15.4	3.83
Chris Andersen	2	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-6	5	3.0	18.1	-15.06	0.0	17.0	-16.98
Calbert Cheaney	6	6	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.04	-3	-4	1	23.3	17.3	6.05	18.3	16.6	1.69
Scott Williams	35	33	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.12	-1	-6	5	16.3	18.7	-2.41	17.0	16.6	0.34
Voshon Lenard	33	32	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.22	-1	-6	5	16.6	18.4	-1.85	18.0	16.0	2.07
Avery Johnson	75	73	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.42	4	-11	15	18.0	15.6	2.39	17.8	8.8	8.98
James Posey	60	58	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.16	-11	4	-15	18.0	17.0	0.94	15.9	18.8	-2.92
Raef LaFrentz	60	58	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.14	-12	5	-17	18.4	16.1	2.25	15.9	18.7	-2.80
Nick Van Exel	67	63	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.09	-14	7	-21	18.0	16.6	1.46	15.5	21.0	-5.51
George McCloud	55	56	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.35	-7	0	-7	17.8	17.5	0.27	16.6	17.0	-0.40

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ruben Patterson	75	78	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.24	14	-7	21	16.5	19.9	-3.38	18.2	12.7	5.44
Rasheed Wallace	78	80	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.26	11	-4	15	16.4	23.5	-7.08	17.8	16.0	1.81
Damon Stoudamire	49	50	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.23	8	-1	9	16.7	16.8	-0.13	17.0	18.7	-1.71
Steve Kerr	34	37	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.26	4	3	1	16.9	16.7	0.19	15.5	19.4	-3.88
Dale Davis	38	40	0.22	0.28	-0.07	-0.05	9	-2	11	16.7	16.8	-0.11	18.9	16.6	2.26
Shawn Kemp	23	23	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.14	2	5	-3	16.8	16.7	0.08	18.1	17.5	0.58
Derek Anderson	70	71	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.27	-4	11	-15	16.8	16.8	-0.08	17.8	17.0	0.85
Rick Brunson	33	35	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.06	-1	8	-9	16.8	16.7	0.13	18.7	17.0	1.71
Zach Randolph	10	11	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	0.06	-8	15	-23	21.4	16.1	5.27	15.0	18.1	-3.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.49,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.62,0.55,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.67,0.81,0.92,0.88,0.86,0.85,0.9,0.97,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 116, CHI 124	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.38,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.29,0.31,0.25,0.39,0.52,0.52,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.67,0.85,0.9,0.88,0.83,0.9,0.99,0.95,0.85,1	94.4%
NOH 76, POR 88	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.35,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.42,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.35,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.41,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.56,0.66,0.66,0.53,0.62,0.77,0.74,0.88,0.87,0.97,0.97,1,1,1	94.2%
LAC 85, ORL 101	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.34,0.33,0.42,0.52,0.69,0.76,0.77,0.68,0.54,0.66,0.62,0.61,0.81,0.96,0.94,0.91,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.2%