NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	91		Excitement	6.8 [483]		MVP	Brandon Roy (POR): +22.2%
Portland Trail Blazers	100		Comeback	1.8 [440]		LVP	J.R. Smith (DEN): -17.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.09	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.09	0.10	0.02	0.04	25	56%	0.11	1	-0.02	9	100%	0.07
Eduardo Najera	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.04	0.00	3	67%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DerMarr Johnson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	1	67%	0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Steve Blake	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	5	42%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Marcus Camby	0.01	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.01	12	57%	0.08	3	-0.07	6	83%	0.01
Linas Kleiza	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yakhouba Diawara	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	3	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	8	58%	0.07	5	-0.15	8	50%	-0.05
Reggie Evans	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.15,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.11	-0.04	-0.01	5	42%	0.01	5	-0.16	2	50%	-0.01
J.R. Smith	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18	-0.10	-0.08	-0.00	10	45%	-0.01	5	-0.17	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Roy	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.11	0.14	0.03	17	62%	0.26	1	-0.04	6	100%	0.02
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.03	-0.02	8	61%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ime Udoka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.05	0.03	7	69%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Martell Webster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.05	-0.00	5	60%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	11	54%	0.06	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Sergio Rodriguez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	0.02	23	52%	0.09	4	-0.12	4	100%	0.02
Juan Dixon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	1	50%	0.01	3	-0.10	4	75%	0.01
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	3	29%	-0.04	3	-0.07	1	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	2.6	29.0	15.7	32.4	1.6	35.2	140.4
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +41.0%

DEN -9.8%

POR +14.4%

POR +4.7%

DEN -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	POR	NBA	DEN	POR	NBA
this game	14.7	16.1	15.4	97.8	106.4	104.5
season	14.0	16.7		105.8	103.1
opponent	15.4	15.3		108.3	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.9	12.7	17.0	13.3	14.7
POR	16.1	16.6	13.7	18.0	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Linas Kleiza	3	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-8	7	6.3	15.0	-8.63	1.0	16.6	-15.60
Reggie Evans	39	40	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.04	-2	-7	5	15.6	14.1	1.51	15.7	16.4	-0.75
DerMarr Johnson	21	20	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.08	-2	-7	5	15.8	14.4	1.45	15.8	16.2	-0.33
J.R. Smith	54	54	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.18	0	-9	9	12.8	17.3	-4.51	17.5	14.2	3.23
Eduardo Najera	30	29	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.18	-1	-8	7	15.2	14.4	0.76	18.0	15.2	2.79
Nene	45	46	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.19	-2	-7	5	14.4	14.9	-0.52	16.6	15.6	0.98
Carmelo Anthony	77	79	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.12	-8	-1	-7	14.7	14.7	0.00	15.9	17.1	-1.22
Yakhouba Diawara	52	53	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.16	-8	-1	-7	16.4	12.5	3.85	15.0	17.5	-2.49
Steve Blake	75	76	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.16	-9	0	-9	14.6	15.2	-0.66	16.2	15.9	0.27
Marcus Camby	69	70	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.08	-12	3	-15	14.5	15.2	-0.70	15.9	16.8	-0.92

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jarrett Jack	71	70	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.16	13	-4	17	16.3	15.4	0.89	14.7	14.7	-0.07
LaMarcus Aldridge	54	53	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.21	11	-2	13	16.0	16.3	-0.34	13.4	16.3	-2.92
Zach Randolph	77	74	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.16	12	-3	15	16.1	16.1	0.06	14.6	15.2	-0.59
Brandon Roy	74	74	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.12	12	-3	15	15.4	18.8	-3.42	14.5	15.4	-0.85
Ime Udoka	79	76	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.12	9	0	9	16.1	16.1	-0.03	14.7	14.8	-0.17
Martell Webster	22	23	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.20	-2	11	-13	17.0	15.8	1.11	15.1	14.6	0.53
Juan Dixon	16	16	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.06	-1	10	-11	17.3	15.9	1.45	16.2	14.4	1.89
Joel Przybilla	28	28	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.01	1	8	-7	16.1	16.1	-0.05	17.5	13.5	3.97
Sergio Rodriguez	20	20	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.05	-4	13	-17	16.1	16.1	0.06	13.8	14.9	-1.13
Jamaal Magloire	29	31	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.10	-6	15	-21	16.4	16.0	0.39	14.6	14.7	-0.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.44,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.56,0.64,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.71,0.77,0.79,0.85,0.9,0.9,0.84,0.97,0.93,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 76, POR 88	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.35,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.42,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.35,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.41,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.56,0.66,0.66,0.53,0.62,0.77,0.74,0.88,0.87,0.97,0.97,1,1,1	93.6%
SAS 89, MIN 95	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.44,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.42,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.57,0.54,0.48,0.39,0.45,0.44,0.41,0.56,0.44,0.52,0.56,0.46,0.43,0.57,0.67,0.85,0.82,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.98,1	93.4%
DEN 90, POR 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.49,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.62,0.55,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.67,0.81,0.92,0.88,0.86,0.85,0.9,0.97,0.92,1	93.0%