NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	99		Excitement	5.4 [695]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +42.5%
Dallas Mavericks	105		Comeback	21.0 [233]		LVP	Jerry Stackhouse (DAL): -10.8%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.07	0.08	0.01	0.02	22	57%	0.13	3	-0.06	10	70%	-0.02
Anthony Parker	0.07	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.01	10	46%	0.07	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Andrea Bargnani	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.11	-0.06	0.02	14	67%	0.04	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.02
Jason Kapono	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.02	3	83%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.01	0.03	10	64%	0.07	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
T.J. Ford	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	12	45%	0.03	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.02
Jamario Moon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kris Humphries	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.13,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.27,0.32,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.42	0.42	0.21	0.23	0.01	19	76%	0.46	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Trenton Hassell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.02	0.00	3	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.09	0.04	0.06	11	63%	0.08	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.00
Josh Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	9	58%	0.12	2	-0.06	8	87%	0.03
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	4	75%	0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.07	0.01	0.06	14	56%	0.02	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Maurice Ager	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.02	6	0%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	1.7	24.8	15.8	22.0	2.4	34.6	126.4
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +40.5%

TOR -1.5%

TOR -1.7%

DAL +12.2%

DAL +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	DAL	NBA	TOR	DAL	NBA
this game	17.5	15.0	15.4	112.5	118.0	105.7
season	15.6	16.1		108.5	108.9
opponent	15.4	15.7		105.0	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	17.5	18.7	18.0	16.1	17.5
DAL	15.3	16.5	14.0	14.6	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carlos Delfino	25	24	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.08	4	-10	14	17.0	17.7	-0.77	15.2	15.0	0.17
T.J. Ford	39	39	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.11	-3	-3	0	18.9	16.4	2.58	16.1	14.2	1.84
Jamario Moon	61	61	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.21	1	-7	8	18.2	15.9	2.39	16.4	12.0	4.39
Kris Humphries	27	26	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.09	-5	-1	-4	17.5	17.5	-0.04	14.6	15.2	-0.61
Andrea Bargnani	59	59	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.22	-1	-5	4	18.0	16.6	1.43	15.0	15.1	-0.08
Anthony Parker	60	62	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.27	-5	-1	-4	17.7	17.0	0.70	15.3	14.4	0.92
Chris Bosh	82	85	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.28	-6	0	-6	17.4	18.7	-1.24	15.1	13.5	1.62
Jason Kapono	38	39	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.15	-12	6	-18	15.8	18.8	-2.98	12.5	17.0	-4.46
Jose Calderon	49	50	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.43	-3	-3	0	16.4	18.9	-2.58	14.2	16.1	-1.84

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Trenton Hassell	40	40	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.05	22	-16	38	14.5	15.5	-0.94	17.5	17.5	0.07
Josh Howard	68	68	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.29	8	-2	10	14.9	15.7	-0.81	17.8	16.4	1.44
Jason Terry	49	47	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.29	4	2	2	14.2	16.0	-1.83	17.1	18.0	-0.91
DeSagana Diop	49	47	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.18	7	-1	8	15.7	14.2	1.44	17.5	17.6	-0.09
Dirk Nowitzki	67	68	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.39	-2	8	-10	15.5	13.7	1.81	17.3	18.1	-0.76
Erick Dampier	28	29	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.13	5	1	4	14.8	15.1	-0.33	18.9	16.8	2.01
Devin Harris	58	57	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.07	6	0	6	15.5	14.1	1.41	18.0	16.6	1.34
Juwan Howard	11	10	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.18	9	-3	12	14.4	15.1	-0.78	20.0	17.2	2.81
Brandon Bass	20	19	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.15	-8	14	-22	14.6	15.2	-0.51	15.9	18.0	-2.06
Maurice Ager	8	7	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.21	-11	17	-28	12.2	15.3	-3.07	13.0	17.9	-4.90
Jose Juan Barea	7	9	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.05	-6	12	-18	13.7	15.2	-1.44	15.3	17.8	-2.43
Jerry Stackhouse	40	39	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	-0.02	-4	10	-14	16.0	14.3	1.69	17.5	17.5	0.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.34,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.25,0.26,0.18,0.18,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.16,0.17,0.16,0.14,0.19,0.21,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.3,0.44,0.6,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.71,0.85,0.87,0.84,0.74,0.86,0.89,0.91,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 106, DAL 116	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.43,0.51,0.45,0.35,0.31,0.24,0.2,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.21,0.2,0.14,0.19,0.27,0.26,0.17,0.18,0.16,0.19,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.21,0.32,0.35,0.27,0.36,0.4,0.48,0.62,0.78,0.79,0.71,0.81,0.89,0.91,0.88,0.97,1,1,1,1	92.5%
WAS 91, HOU 101	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.31,0.27,0.24,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.34,0.25,0.21,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.16,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.21,0.23,0.3,0.36,0.39,0.26,0.32,0.35,0.48,0.6,0.64,0.81,0.74,0.82,0.83,0.77,0.83,0.71,0.6,0.81,0.9,0.95,1,1	92.1%
NOP 111, IND 126	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.27,0.21,0.28,0.22,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.2,0.16,0.15,0.19,0.09,0.1,0.16,0.11,0.21,0.17,0.28,0.38,0.48,0.35,0.31,0.27,0.4,0.52,0.62,0.81,0.9,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.95,1,1,1,1	91.7%