NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	91		Excitement	6.8 [484]		MVP	Eric Gordon (HOU): +35.9%
Houston Rockets	101		Comeback	6.1 [575]		LVP	James Harden (HOU): -15.5%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bradley Beal	0.12	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.02	0.02	18	67%	0.24	3	-0.13	4	100%	0.03
Markieff Morris	0.04	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	11	48%	0.06	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.04
Jason Smith	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	10	59%	0.06	4	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Trey Burke	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Thornton	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	8	44%	0.00	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Otto Porter	-0.07	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	12	33%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Oubre Jr.	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	4	0%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Wall	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	18	46%	-0.01	5	-0.11	3	67%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.24,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.36	0.36	0.19	0.19	0.01	18	77%	0.47	3	-0.11	4	75%	0.01
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.05	-0.00	6	56%	0.08	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.03
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.04	-0.01	10	50%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.02	0.00	7	57%	0.05	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Montrezl Harrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	0.03	11	56%	0.00	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Sam Dekker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Ennis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	4	25%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.23,-0.23,-0.19,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.14	-0.04	-0.03	24	40%	-0.00	6	-0.15	10	90%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.0	1.8	30.0	15.5	24.3	2.5	30.2	126.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +25.4%

HOU +10.8%

HOU +12.7%

HOU +2.9%

WAS -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	HOU	NBA	WAS	HOU	NBA
this game	14.5	14.1	14.8	90.1	101.0	107.7
season	14.4	13.7		109.9	113.2
opponent	14.9	14.9		108.1	108.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	16.7	13.3	14.9	13.6	14.5
HOU	14.6	11.6	15.1	15.8	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Trey Burke	23	24	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.01	3	-13	16	14.9	14.4	0.52	14.8	13.9	0.91
Jason Smith	19	20	0.07	-0.57	0.65	0.04	1	-11	12	15.2	14.4	0.86	13.2	14.4	-1.11
Markieff Morris	69	68	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.14	4	-14	18	14.2	15.2	-0.94	14.4	13.6	0.76
Bradley Beal	75	73	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.11	-3	-7	4	14.7	13.8	0.90	14.1	14.3	-0.16
Marcus Thornton	39	39	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.14	-5	-5	0	13.8	15.0	-1.17	14.6	13.9	0.70
Marcin Gortat	85	83	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.05	-13	3	-16	14.9	12.6	2.32	14.2	14.0	0.17
Kelly Oubre Jr.	48	49	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.22	-11	1	-12	14.3	14.7	-0.43	13.8	14.5	-0.75
John Wall	78	76	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.20	-13	3	-16	14.4	14.9	-0.52	13.9	14.8	-0.91
Otto Porter	69	68	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.21	-13	3	-16	14.5	14.6	-0.12	14.2	14.0	0.21

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Harden	86	87	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.34	14	-4	18	14.3	12.9	1.49	14.8	12.5	2.34
Trevor Ariza	89	91	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.23	10	0	10	14.2	13.4	0.87	14.6	13.7	0.90
Eric Gordon	78	79	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.18	11	-1	12	13.6	16.0	-2.44	14.1	16.1	-2.07
Montrezl Harrell	70	71	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.15	5	5	0	14.1	14.3	-0.28	14.2	15.2	-1.02
Ryan Anderson	68	69	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.12	5	5	0	14.0	14.5	-0.53	14.1	15.4	-1.26
Nene	28	28	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.04	7	3	4	14.3	14.1	0.25	15.4	14.2	1.26
Sam Dekker	34	34	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.10	3	7	-4	14.5	14.0	0.55	15.2	14.2	1.04
Corey Brewer	33	32	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.00	-1	11	-12	15.2	13.6	1.51	15.4	14.1	1.26
Tyler Ennis	14	14	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	-0.13	-4	14	-18	12.9	14.3	-1.49	12.5	14.8	-2.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.31,0.27,0.24,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.34,0.25,0.21,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.16,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.21,0.23,0.3,0.36,0.39,0.26,0.32,0.35,0.48,0.6,0.64,0.81,0.74,0.82,0.83,0.77,0.83,0.71,0.6,0.81,0.9,0.95,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 99, CLE 112	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.31,0.26,0.3,0.3,0.28,0.28,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.2,0.19,0.18,0.23,0.27,0.3,0.22,0.16,0.23,0.22,0.33,0.27,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.52,0.6,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.75,0.8,0.88,0.9,0.81,0.91,0.89,1,1,1,1	92.4%
TOR 99, DAL 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.34,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.25,0.26,0.18,0.18,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.16,0.17,0.16,0.14,0.19,0.21,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.3,0.44,0.6,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.71,0.85,0.87,0.84,0.74,0.86,0.89,0.91,0.98,1	92.1%
SAS 79, POR 82	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.39,0.32,0.36,0.32,0.27,0.26,0.27,0.25,0.28,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.2,0.25,0.29,0.25,0.39,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.73,0.83,0.85,0.82,0.89,0.9,0.94,0.96,1	91.8%