NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	97		Excitement	4.1 [996]		MVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): +31.0%
Boston Celtics	117		Comeback	4.2 [612]		LVP	Brian Skinner (MIL): -6.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mo Williams	0.10	0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	-0.01	-0.01	25	57%	0.13	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Charlie Bell	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.13	-0.02	0.02	18	67%	0.10	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.01	1	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jared Reiner	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Boykins	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lynn Greer	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Noel	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	7	53%	-0.02	3	-0.04	3	33%	-0.04
Ruben Patterson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.02	-0.03	8	56%	0.05	5	-0.11	2	0%	-0.04
Brian Skinner	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	8	50%	0.01	4	-0.08	10	50%	-0.04

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.3,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.31	0.23	0.07	-0.01	19	76%	0.31	1	-0.00	4	75%	0.01
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.24	0.01	0.06	9	117%	0.19	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.00	0.02	12	58%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Jefferson	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	0.01	0.03	12	61%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.02
Ryan Gomes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.01	9	55%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Sebastian Telfair	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Leon Powe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	7	53%	0.02	2	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	1	25%	-0.00	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Brian Scalabrine	0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	4	75%	0.04	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Delonte West	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	0.01	8	37%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	0.8	27.2	15.8	26.3	3.3	30.6	126.8
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +31.4%

BOS +4.9%

MIL -5.0%

BOS +18.0%

BOS +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	BOS	NBA	MIL	BOS	NBA
this game	17.3	14.7	15.4	107.8	130.0	104.5
season	15.2	15.5		105.3	101.7
opponent	15.3	15.5		105.2	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.7	19.4	16.8	16.5	17.3
BOS	16.8	13.3	13.7	14.8	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jared Reiner	9	10	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.09	6	-26	32	21.6	16.9	4.68	13.0	14.9	-1.86
Lynn Greer	10	10	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.20	-7	-13	6	16.3	17.5	-1.18	14.0	14.7	-0.74
Ersan Ilyasova	29	29	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.15	4	-24	28	17.7	17.2	0.46	14.4	14.8	-0.36
Earl Boykins	20	19	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.05	-6	-14	8	17.9	17.2	0.78	14.1	14.8	-0.76
David Noel	7	5	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	0.09	-9	-11	2	13.6	17.7	-4.09	15.0	14.6	0.36
Mo Williams	82	83	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.01	-11	-9	-2	17.4	17.2	0.10	14.6	15.0	-0.37
Brian Skinner	78	80	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.10	-15	-5	-10	17.8	14.4	3.38	14.3	17.2	-2.86
Ruben Patterson	58	58	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	0.03	-18	-2	-16	17.4	17.2	0.15	15.1	13.8	1.26
Charlie Bell	81	81	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	0.07	-21	1	-22	17.1	19.2	-2.09	15.0	11.4	3.57
Andrew Bogut	76	75	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	0.12	-23	3	-26	16.8	20.5	-3.74	14.8	13.8	1.03

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Pierce	68	68	0.59	-0.09	0.68	-0.11	24	-4	28	14.5	15.2	-0.76	17.4	17.3	0.09
Gerald Green	36	35	0.37	0.13	0.23	-0.04	14	6	8	14.4	14.8	-0.40	18.3	16.7	1.59
Wally Szczerbiak	51	50	0.35	0.15	0.19	-0.33	23	-3	26	13.9	15.7	-1.83	17.8	16.8	0.94
Rajon Rondo	52	52	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.23	19	1	18	14.1	15.4	-1.32	17.7	16.9	0.73
Kendrick Perkins	37	37	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.05	12	8	4	14.0	15.1	-1.07	18.0	16.9	1.07
Al Jefferson	51	51	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.09	10	10	0	14.9	14.3	0.66	17.0	17.8	-0.84
Brian Scalabrine	38	38	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.14	1	19	-18	15.4	14.1	1.32	16.9	17.7	-0.73
Delonte West	54	55	0.13	0.37	-0.23	-0.04	6	14	-8	14.8	14.4	0.40	16.7	18.3	-1.59
Ryan Gomes	59	60	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.21	-5	25	-30	15.4	13.2	2.18	17.0	17.9	-0.88
Sebastian Telfair	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	22	-24	19.0	14.6	4.44	15.0	17.4	-2.40
Leon Powe	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	22	-24	19.0	14.6	4.44	15.0	17.4	-2.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.25,0.32,0.32,0.23,0.23,0.33,0.24,0.25,0.31,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.7,0.73,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 102, IND 117	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.28,0.2,0.19,0.25,0.35,0.39,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.46,0.54,0.5,0.43,0.48,0.64,0.67,0.79,0.77,0.81,0.84,0.87,0.91,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.93,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
PHX 93, NJN 106	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.3,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.54,0.52,0.64,0.78,0.79,0.89,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
WAS 87, IND 111	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.23,0.26,0.28,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.39,0.5,0.54,0.48,0.61,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.78,0.79,0.85,0.9,0.89,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.1%