NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	111		Excitement	2.3 [1271]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +12.1%
Orlando Magic	95		Comeback	1.0 [1150]		LVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): -8.3%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.24	0.00	0.12	17	75%	0.14	1	-0.02	10	90%	0.00
Josh Howard	0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.00	-0.00	18	61%	0.12	1	-0.01	5	100%	0.00
Devin Harris	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.02	8	65%	0.08	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.03	5	70%	0.05	1	0.01	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	3	86%	0.04	1	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01
Devean George	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	7	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DJ Mbenga	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	0.00	0.03	15	47%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.12	0.01	0.07	14	64%	0.07	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.00
Grant Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	0.00	0.03	8	56%	0.02	1	-0.01	11	82%	0.01
Travis Diener	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	150%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.12	0.00	0.11	10	77%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Bo Outlaw	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	6	44%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	0.00	0.01	10	44%	-0.04	3	-0.04	14	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.8	2.4	30.5	17.4	30.4	2.6	30.3	142.5
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +41.9%

ORL -4.3%

ORL -0.9%

DAL +13.3%

DAL +0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	ORL	NBA	DAL	ORL	NBA
this game	17.0	15.7	15.4	126.1	108.0	104.5
season	16.3	15.9		108.7	103.4
opponent	15.7	15.2		103.0	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.0	15.7	17.7	19.9	17.0
ORL	15.7	17.0	14.2	16.1	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	70	71	0.55	-0.05	0.59	-0.36	31	-15	46	17.4	15.6	1.82	15.6	16.3	-0.70
Josh Howard	72	74	0.49	0.01	0.48	-0.18	23	-7	30	17.1	16.7	0.31	16.0	14.5	1.46
Devean George	66	63	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.16	6	10	-4	16.5	18.5	-2.00	15.8	15.6	0.23
DeSagana Diop	46	45	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.13	6	10	-4	16.5	17.5	-1.00	16.6	14.9	1.70
Jason Terry	55	55	0.27	0.23	0.05	-0.17	15	1	14	16.7	17.4	-0.68	15.7	15.8	-0.10
Devin Harris	44	46	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.23	-2	18	-20	17.4	16.6	0.77	15.3	16.2	-0.84
Jerry Stackhouse	42	42	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.20	-1	17	-18	16.7	17.3	-0.59	15.8	15.6	0.20
DJ Mbenga	13	12	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.06	2	14	-12	16.6	17.1	-0.45	15.7	15.7	-0.07
Greg Buckner	14	13	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.07	4	12	-8	19.6	16.5	3.06	13.7	16.1	-2.39
Erick Dampier	18	19	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.14	-4	20	-24	17.2	16.9	0.28	15.4	15.8	-0.39

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bo Outlaw	17	16	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.03	-2	-14	12	18.8	15.0	3.76	16.6	17.1	-0.46
Darko Milicic	26	26	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.15	2	-18	20	14.9	16.1	-1.14	18.1	16.5	1.53
Travis Diener	21	21	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.01	-5	-11	6	18.8	14.8	3.99	17.1	17.0	0.13
Keith Bogans	22	24	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.06	-8	-8	0	17.9	15.0	2.91	16.7	17.1	-0.40
Hedo Turkoglu	51	50	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.05	-6	-10	4	14.9	16.9	-1.96	17.4	16.4	0.97
Keyon Dooling	57	58	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.18	-2	-14	12	16.0	15.2	0.77	17.6	15.9	1.67
Jameer Nelson	67	67	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.02	-11	-5	-6	14.8	18.8	-3.99	17.0	17.1	-0.13
Tony Battie	50	50	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	0.10	-16	0	-16	16.2	15.1	1.05	15.6	18.9	-3.29
Grant Hill	65	64	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.08	-16	0	-16	15.2	17.1	-1.84	16.9	17.2	-0.34
Dwight Howard	64	64	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.04	-16	0	-16	15.0	17.5	-2.49	17.1	16.7	0.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.29,0.25,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.13,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 113, SAC 100	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.26,0.29,0.22,0.19,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.12,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.5%
GSW 128, PHI 111	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.12,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,0,0	96.5%
DEN 98, LAC 86	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.33,0.36,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.31,0.3,0.31,0.24,0.22,0.24,0.18,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	96.4%