NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	102		Excitement	6.5 [522]		MVP	Charlie Bell (MIL): +17.4%
Milwaukee Bucks	119		Comeback	2.7 [634]		LVP	Gilbert Arenas (WAS): -12.1%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antawn Jamison	0.13	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.05	0.09	0.01	15	53%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Caron Butler	0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.00	0.01	25	57%	0.11	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	-0.00	6	57%	0.09	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Andray Blatche	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.01	0.02	6	75%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
James Lang	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	1	150%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donell Taylor	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarvis Hayes	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	0.00	8	48%	-0.00	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Calvin Booth	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	5	42%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Gilbert Arenas	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.16,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.24,-0.27,-0.27,-0.24,-0.27,-0.2,-0.2,-0.16,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.14	-0.00	-0.02	22	38%	0.04	5	-0.16	6	50%	-0.03

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.12	0.06	0.01	13	73%	0.21	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.12	0.07	0.05	23	56%	0.13	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Brian Skinner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.06	0.01	8	63%	0.12	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.14	0.04	0.09	13	68%	0.11	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.02
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.01	12	54%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Damir Markota	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Noel	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	8	44%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	17	46%	0.04	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.00	4	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.5	27.4	14.7	27.7	2.0	27.3	126.0
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +29.3%

WAS -1.7%

MIL +15.9%

MIL +7.2%

WAS -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	MIL	NBA	WAS	MIL	NBA
this game	14.9	15.4	15.4	108.5	124.0	104.5
season	14.8	15.2		107.8	105.3
opponent	15.5	15.3		109.9	108.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	16.6	13.3	13.4	17.1	14.9
MIL	15.4	14.4	13.3	19.8	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio Daniels	41	42	0.15	-0.65	0.81	-0.11	9	-26	35	15.7	14.2	1.41	15.8	15.2	0.56
Andray Blatche	23	23	0.10	-0.60	0.70	0.07	1	-18	19	14.0	15.1	-1.08	18.3	14.6	3.70
James Lang	3	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-17	17	19.7	14.7	4.96	29.5	14.8	14.66
Roger Mason Jr.	2	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-20	23	18.5	14.8	3.72	26.0	15.1	10.89
Donell Taylor	2	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-20	23	18.5	14.8	3.72	26.0	15.1	10.89
Jarvis Hayes	46	48	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.03	-10	-7	-3	14.4	15.3	-0.88	15.8	15.1	0.65
Antawn Jamison	72	70	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	0.23	-19	2	-21	14.8	15.1	-0.30	15.1	16.3	-1.23
Calvin Booth	57	60	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.31	-4	-13	9	14.3	15.7	-1.34	14.1	17.7	-3.59
Caron Butler	89	92	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.05	-14	-3	-11	15.0	12.6	2.39	15.5	15.2	0.21
Gilbert Arenas	84	85	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	0.09	-21	4	-25	14.8	15.7	-0.94	15.0	18.5	-3.50
DeShawn Stevenson	51	50	-0.75	0.25	-0.99	0.22	-33	16	-49	15.1	14.6	0.43	13.9	17.1	-3.15

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Skinner	57	57	0.81	-0.31	1.12	-0.16	33	-16	49	15.4	15.6	-0.24	15.6	13.7	1.91
Michael Redd	90	88	0.75	-0.25	1.00	-0.04	27	-10	37	15.0	21.8	-6.81	15.1	11.5	3.59
Charlie Bell	64	64	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.01	14	3	11	16.0	14.3	1.70	14.8	15.0	-0.15
Ruben Patterson	57	55	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.01	9	8	1	15.8	14.9	0.84	14.4	15.5	-1.16
Mo Williams	72	71	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.34	19	-2	21	15.0	16.9	-1.90	14.6	15.7	-1.16
Steve Blake	59	57	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.31	-6	23	-29	15.5	15.3	0.20	14.8	15.0	-0.18
Andrew Bogut	65	65	0.13	0.37	-0.23	-0.10	8	9	-1	14.1	18.3	-4.15	14.5	15.6	-1.10
Damir Markota	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	20	-23	26.0	15.1	10.89	18.5	14.8	3.72
Ersan Ilyasova	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	20	-23	26.0	15.1	10.89	18.5	14.8	3.72
David Noel	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	20	-23	26.0	15.1	10.89	18.5	14.8	3.72
Charlie Villanueva	7	7	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.09	-10	27	-37	16.9	15.3	1.52	13.6	15.0	-1.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.5,0.42,0.4,0.29,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.45,0.52,0.73,0.74,0.65,0.69,0.56,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.52,0.71,0.67,0.8,0.9,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 103, NJN 116	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.56,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.59,0.63,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.48,0.43,0.67,0.81,0.83,0.94,0.91,0.89,0.96,1,1,1	93.0%
MEM 94, WAS 107	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.54,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.39,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.57,0.64,0.73,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.49,0.67,0.67,0.77,0.79,0.94,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.94,1,1	92.6%
GSW 98, UTA 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.33,0.22,0.32,0.3,0.29,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.5,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.52,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.66,0.75,0.72,0.77,0.84,0.85,0.95,0.96,0.89,0.96,0.98,1	91.9%