NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	93		Excitement	8.5 [206]		MVP	Ruben Patterson (MIL): +17.7%
Milwaukee Bucks	94		Comeback	5.2 [354]		LVP	Luke Ridnour (SEA): -50.7%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Wilcox	0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.08	0.07	0.01	11	64%	0.16	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.00
Johan Petro	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.01	0.00	6	100%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.04,0.1,0.17,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.12	-0.02	0.02	20	60%	0.15	1	-0.07	3	100%	0.05
Damien Wilkins	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	9	65%	0.23	5	-0.21	5	100%	0.06
Andreas Glyniadakis	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Gelabale	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Wilks	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.06
Earl Watson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	-0.35	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.21,-0.21,-0.35	-0.09	-0.26	0.01	13	40%	-0.17	3	-0.19	4	50%	-0.07
Luke Ridnour	-0.51	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.19,-0.35,-0.51	-0.13	-0.38	-0.00	14	43%	-0.13	6	-0.38	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.14	0.05	0.01	10	84%	0.25	2	-0.07	5	80%	0.05
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17	0.17	-0.04	0.16	-0.04	13	52%	0.26	4	-0.09	3	100%	0.02
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.01	0.00	8	84%	0.16	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.07
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brian Skinner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
David Noel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	3	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	8	12%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.03	-0.09	-0.00	9	60%	0.02	4	-0.14	2	100%	0.01
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.1,0.1,-0.11,-0.2,-0.29	-0.29	-0.03	-0.26	-0.00	16	52%	-0.01	4	-0.28	10	100%	0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.3	25.5	15.5	25.3	2.5	35.2	130.5
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +12.1%

MIL +13.8%

SEA -8.5%

MIL +25.4%

MIL +7.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	MIL	NBA	SEA	MIL	NBA
this game	16.1	15.8	15.4	103.3	103.3	104.5
season	15.4	15.2		105.5	105.3
opponent	15.5	15.4		109.9	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	15.4	16.7	16.3	15.8	16.1
MIL	15.2	16.0	16.4	15.5	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mickael Gelabale	38	39	0.20	-0.70	0.90	-0.04	8	-9	17	16.3	15.9	0.45	19.0	13.4	5.61
Earl Watson	16	15	0.15	-0.65	0.80	-0.06	7	-8	15	16.7	15.9	0.77	19.8	15.0	4.83
Johan Petro	24	22	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.01	2	-3	5	15.0	16.4	-1.38	16.0	15.7	0.24
Mike Wilks	3	3	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.01	1	-2	3	15.3	16.1	-0.75	24.3	15.5	8.86
Andreas Glyniadakis	4	3	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.01	-2	1	-3	20.2	15.9	4.39	13.7	15.8	-2.17
Nick Collison	62	64	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.47	0	-1	1	16.1	15.9	0.24	16.1	15.0	1.15
Chris Wilcox	76	78	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.44	-2	1	-3	15.5	18.9	-3.40	15.4	18.2	-2.78
Damien Wilkins	81	82	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.44	-6	5	-11	16.5	12.0	4.51	15.4	18.9	-3.46
Rashard Lewis	75	76	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.51	-4	3	-7	16.0	16.3	-0.25	14.6	21.5	-6.82
Luke Ridnour	71	73	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.41	-9	8	-17	15.9	16.5	-0.53	14.6	20.6	-5.97

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ruben Patterson	74	72	0.86	-0.36	1.22	0.51	12	-11	23	15.2	18.4	-3.18	15.7	17.3	-1.53
Michael Redd	76	75	0.72	-0.22	0.93	0.51	7	-6	13	14.6	21.9	-7.38	16.2	15.5	0.71
Charlie Villanueva	66	67	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.60	3	-2	5	15.1	17.4	-2.30	16.0	16.3	-0.28
Mo Williams	61	62	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.54	5	-4	9	15.5	16.4	-0.89	15.9	16.5	-0.59
Andrew Bogut	76	74	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.43	7	-6	13	15.0	19.5	-4.51	15.9	16.8	-0.92
Dan Gadzuric	12	13	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.04	-5	6	-11	18.3	15.4	2.95	17.2	15.9	1.28
Steve Blake	30	28	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	-0.07	-4	5	-9	16.4	15.5	0.89	16.5	15.9	0.59
David Noel	12	11	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.04	-6	7	-13	22.2	14.8	7.47	16.1	16.1	0.04
Brian Skinner	12	12	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	-0.10	-6	7	-13	21.1	15.0	6.12	16.4	16.0	0.42
Charlie Bell	36	36	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	-0.05	-8	9	-17	17.5	14.6	2.86	16.4	15.9	0.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.48,0.53,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.33,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.31,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.29,0.32,0.31,0.2,0.46,0.45,0.54,0.69,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 112, UTA 116	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.3,0.22,0.29,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.24,0.4,0.45,0.46,0.66,0.82,1	92.3%
LAC 103, POR 109	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.4,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.48,0.5,0.34,0.33,0.37,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.6,0.55,0.45,0.68,0.95,1	91.9%
UTA 94, OKC 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.5,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.33,0.39,0.37,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.34,0.35,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.29,0.23,0.26,0.2,0.26,0.2,0.55,0.77,0.72,1	91.7%