NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	94		Excitement	8.1 [233]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +40.9%
Oklahoma City Thunder	99		Comeback	6.0 [458]		LVP	Derrick Favors (UTA): -16.6%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trey Burke	0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.17,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.08	0.00	15	62%	0.18	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.05
Elijah Millsap	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	6	75%	0.08	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Gordon Hayward	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.19,0.14,0.01,0.01,0	0.06	-0.07	-0.01	18	64%	0.26	5	-0.26	6	67%	-0.03
Trevor Booker	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	8	40%	0.04	1	-0.05	4	50%	-0.04
Dante Exum	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gobert	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	2	67%	0.01	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Joe Ingles	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	0.00	5	8%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Derrick Favors	-0.17	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.17	-0.01	-0.15	0.01	17	55%	0.01	4	-0.18	6	67%	-0.05

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.25,0.32,0.41,0.41,0.41	0.41	0.19	0.22	0.00	21	73%	0.46	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Dion Waiters	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.01,0.2	0.20	0.01	0.19	-0.01	14	52%	0.24	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.04	-0.00	4	50%	0.06	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	14	43%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Roberson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.01,0.01,-0.06	-0.06	0.07	-0.09	0.03	17	62%	0.03	3	-0.09	6	100%	0.03
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	6	42%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Steven Adams	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Morrow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	6	17%	-0.07	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.5	27.4	15.7	25.2	2.5	34.4	130.1
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +22.3%

UTA -12.8%

OKC +4.8%

OKC +33.3%

OKC +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	OKC	NBA	UTA	OKC	NBA
this game	16.3	13.7	15.1	97.9	103.1	104.2
season	16.2	14.5		103.8	105.7
opponent	15.0	15.3		103.5	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	15.4	15.8	18.0	16.0	16.3
OKC	12.3	16.2	13.3	13.4	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dante Exum	36	36	0.39	-0.89	1.28	0.04	12	-17	29	14.8	17.2	-2.41	12.7	14.3	-1.59
Trevor Booker	41	42	0.23	-0.73	0.96	-0.09	11	-16	27	15.5	16.8	-1.30	13.7	13.8	-0.09
Elijah Millsap	59	60	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.38	2	-7	9	15.7	17.2	-1.57	14.1	13.1	1.02
Derrick Favors	75	74	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.29	-1	-4	3	16.0	17.2	-1.16	14.2	12.0	2.29
Trey Burke	74	73	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.30	-2	-3	1	16.3	16.1	0.19	14.6	10.9	3.75
Joe Ingles	46	47	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.03	-13	8	-21	17.9	14.8	3.13	13.2	14.2	-1.03
Gordon Hayward	73	72	-0.80	0.30	-1.10	-0.39	-14	9	-23	16.4	15.8	0.66	13.3	14.9	-1.54
Rudy Gobert	76	76	-0.91	0.41	-1.32	-0.32	-20	15	-35	16.9	13.8	3.13	13.2	15.5	-2.31

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Durant	72	71	1.07	-0.57	1.63	0.39	23	-18	41	13.7	13.8	-0.15	17.0	14.4	2.60
Serge Ibaka	63	62	0.97	-0.47	1.43	0.38	20	-15	35	13.6	13.9	-0.24	17.3	14.4	2.94
Russell Westbrook	74	74	0.96	-0.46	1.42	0.31	22	-17	39	13.5	14.4	-0.84	17.0	14.0	2.96
Steven Adams	42	43	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.47	10	-5	15	14.3	13.2	1.09	16.7	16.0	0.71
Dion Waiters	53	55	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.39	-2	7	-9	13.6	13.8	-0.21	15.5	17.4	-1.94
Andre Roberson	28	27	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.06	1	4	-3	13.9	13.6	0.25	17.4	15.8	1.62
Kendrick Perkins	52	52	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	-0.13	-6	11	-17	13.6	13.9	-0.27	16.2	16.4	-0.24
Reggie Jackson	32	32	-0.43	0.93	-1.35	0.01	-15	20	-35	14.5	13.3	1.12	14.8	17.0	-2.20
Anthony Morrow	35	34	-0.46	0.96	-1.41	-0.05	-14	19	-33	13.5	13.8	-0.32	14.4	17.3	-2.99
Nick Collison	29	30	-0.49	0.99	-1.48	-0.08	-14	19	-33	13.2	13.9	-0.68	14.7	17.0	-2.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.5,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.33,0.39,0.37,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.34,0.35,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.29,0.23,0.26,0.2,0.26,0.2,0.55,0.77,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 93, MIL 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.48,0.53,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.33,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.31,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.29,0.32,0.31,0.2,0.46,0.45,0.54,0.69,0.74,1	91.7%
OKC 99, GSW 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.31,0.41,0.55,0.52,0.39,0.48,0.62,0.62,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.17,0.15,0.17,0.24,0.26,0.31,0.64,0.77,0.92,1	91.5%
VAN 99, ORL 103	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.47,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.24,0.24,0.27,0.36,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.3,0.27,0.36,0.34,0.22,0.15,0.37,0.66,0.85,1	91.3%