NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	112		Excitement	10.6 [52]		MVP	Deron Williams (UTA): +32.1%
Utah Jazz	116		Comeback	4.3 [394]		LVP	Stephen Jackson (GSW): -34.8%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Harrington	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.14,0.23	0.16	0.09	0.02	15	68%	0.23	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jason Richardson	0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.14,0.06,0.23,0.23,0.12,0.19	0.01	0.13	-0.05	19	51%	0.30	2	-0.10	3	100%	0.08
Matt Barnes	0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.14	0.02	0.10	-0.01	15	62%	0.23	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.06
Baron Davis	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	-0.01	17	56%	0.11	3	-0.06	9	78%	-0.01
Mickael Pietrus	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.04	-0.00	5	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	-0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.05	0.00	4	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	25%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Stephen Jackson	-0.35	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.22,-0.22,-0.35	-0.10	-0.24	-0.00	14	44%	-0.20	5	-0.15	8	62%	-0.02

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Deron Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.36,0.32	0.32	0.08	0.23	-0.01	21	63%	0.51	6	-0.19	7	71%	-0.02
Matt Harpring	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.05,0.05,0.08	0.08	0.09	-0.00	0.01	11	68%	0.15	1	-0.07	9	78%	-0.00
Dee Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.06	-0.00	5	60%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,0.05	0.05	-0.11	0.14	-0.02	15	45%	0.20	5	-0.15	8	62%	-0.06
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Brewer	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mehmet Okur	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.07	-0.07	0.07	-0.13	0.01	17	62%	-0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Gordan Giricek	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.03	-0.04	10	25%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.02	-0.17	0.01	8	54%	-0.01	3	-0.19	8	87%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.0	2.7	33.4	19.4	27.4	2.7	36.4	152.9
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +20.9%

UTA +5.7%

UTA +53.1%

GSW -29.3%

GSW -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	UTA	NBA	GSW	UTA	NBA
this game	13.7	14.3	15.4	109.8	111.5	104.5
season	13.5	15.9		105.7	107.4
opponent	15.0	15.2		104.9	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	11.1	13.0	15.0	16.3	13.7
UTA	13.3	15.8	13.8	14.4	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mickael Pietrus	37	40	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.07	-1	-3	2	14.6	13.2	1.45	14.0	14.4	-0.42
Monta Ellis	14	13	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.03	2	-6	8	11.9	14.0	-2.05	11.5	14.7	-3.20
Al Harrington	57	59	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.19	1	-5	6	13.6	13.8	-0.19	14.0	14.6	-0.52
Andris Biedrins	44	45	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.15	-1	-3	2	13.1	14.1	-0.98	15.4	13.4	2.05
Stephen Jackson	98	99	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.37	5	-9	14	13.4	20.2	-6.82	14.1	17.2	-3.09
Jason Richardson	87	89	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.44	3	-7	10	13.7	13.8	-0.12	15.1	9.5	5.60
Baron Davis	80	82	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	-0.44	-11	7	-18	14.0	12.7	1.29	14.8	12.4	2.40
Matt Barnes	93	93	-0.89	0.39	-1.28	-0.36	-18	14	-32	14.0	10.9	3.08	13.3	22.5	-9.27

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrei Kirilenko	86	86	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.40	9	-5	14	13.8	16.4	-2.57	13.7	13.4	0.31
Mehmet Okur	85	85	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.40	8	-4	12	14.3	13.9	0.45	13.4	14.9	-1.49
Dee Brown	27	26	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.27	10	-6	16	13.1	14.7	-1.60	15.7	13.0	2.63
Carlos Boozer	89	87	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.47	2	2	0	15.0	9.8	5.21	13.8	13.2	0.58
Matt Harpring	67	65	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.41	4	0	4	14.1	14.6	-0.56	14.5	12.3	2.20
Deron Williams	91	90	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.05	2	2	0	14.2	14.9	-0.76	13.4	16.2	-2.80
Gordan Giricek	59	56	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.07	-3	7	-10	15.0	13.3	1.63	13.1	14.5	-1.39
Ronnie Brewer	4	4	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.01	-6	10	-16	9.5	14.4	-4.95	13.0	13.7	-0.72
Paul Millsap	12	11	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	-0.03	-6	10	-16	13.9	14.3	-0.39	11.4	14.0	-2.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.3,0.22,0.29,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.24,0.4,0.45,0.46,0.66,0.82,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 100, ORL 107	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.36,0.39,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.33,0.51,0.42,0.19,0.29,0.28,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.22,0.32,0.46,0.55,0.73,1	92.8%
MIA 83, LAC 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.48,0.41,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.48,0.56,0.52,0.38,0.31,0.29,0.42,0.37,0.41,0.24,0.33,0.45,0.28,0.77,0.73,1	92.7%
SAS 95, CLE 97	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.31,0.32,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.41,0.3,0.36,0.34,0.22,0.25,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.46,0.32,0.37,0.55,0.58,1	92.3%