NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	83		Excitement	8.9 [121]		MVP	Quentin Richardson (LAC): +27.3%
Los Angeles Clippers	87		Comeback	3.2 [546]		LVP	LaPhonso Ellis (MIA): -29.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Mack	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.00	0.05	0.00	5	58%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Eddie House	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	5	25%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Alonzo Mourning	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09	0.00	-0.08	0.01	14	54%	-0.09	0	0.00	11	64%	-0.12
Brian Grant	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.03	-0.07	-0.00	11	36%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	6	44%	-0.09	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.02
Jim Jackson	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.2	-0.01	-0.19	0.00	14	50%	-0.14	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Chris Gatling	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.12	-0.11	-0.00	11	41%	-0.15	2	-0.07	10	70%	-0.02
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.21,-0.21,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3	-0.12	-0.16	0.01	12	29%	-0.22	1	-0.07	4	25%	-0.05

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Quentin Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.27	0.27	0.12	0.16	-0.00	13	68%	0.27	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Elton Brand	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	14	66%	0.17	5	-0.19	7	100%	0.05
Darius Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Corey Maggette	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	7	42%	-0.03	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.02
Sean Rooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	4	30%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.14,-0.15,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.24,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	0.02	0.00	12	48%	0.07	5	-0.15	3	100%	0.03
Michael Olowokandi	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.07	-0.00	9	50%	-0.07	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jeff McInnis	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	11	36%	-0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	1.8	30.3	15.6	28.0	1.8	37.2	141.9
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAC +77.3%

LAC +7.8%

LAC +7.7%

MIA -41.6%

MIA -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	LAC	NBA	MIA	LAC	NBA
this game	17.9	15.2	15.6	96.5	98.9	102.3
season	16.5	15.9		96.6	103.6
opponent	15.4	15.8		104.1	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	18.0	17.5	17.3	18.8	17.9
LAC	13.3	16.0	16.2	15.5	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Gatling	49	48	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.02	4	-8	12	17.9	17.8	0.08	16.1	14.3	1.79
Eddie House	17	18	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-4	4	19.1	17.6	1.54	11.6	16.2	-4.57
Sam Mack	34	35	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-7	10	17.7	18.0	-0.34	15.1	15.4	-0.32
Rod Strickland	46	46	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.18	2	-6	8	16.6	19.3	-2.74	15.9	14.5	1.39
Anthony Carter	40	42	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.26	1	-5	6	17.3	18.4	-1.14	16.4	14.2	2.25
Alonzo Mourning	58	59	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.37	5	-9	14	16.8	20.2	-3.40	14.7	16.3	-1.53
LaPhonso Ellis	56	60	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.19	-11	7	-18	18.9	16.0	2.94	15.2	15.3	-0.05
Jim Jackson	72	72	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.42	-10	6	-16	18.5	14.9	3.53	15.2	15.4	-0.23
Brian Grant	58	60	-0.79	0.29	-1.08	-0.38	-14	10	-24	18.4	16.7	1.73	15.0	15.7	-0.68

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lamar Odom	54	54	0.93	-0.43	1.36	0.43	17	-13	30	14.7	16.1	-1.46	19.2	15.6	3.65
Elton Brand	71	69	0.80	-0.30	1.11	0.39	14	-10	24	14.9	16.5	-1.59	18.8	14.2	4.55
Michael Olowokandi	56	57	0.75	-0.25	0.99	0.39	12	-8	20	15.1	15.4	-0.29	18.9	15.9	3.00
Jeff McInnis	77	74	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.33	4	0	4	15.0	17.1	-2.10	17.2	21.8	-4.59
Quentin Richardson	58	57	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.43	-2	6	-8	15.8	14.2	1.59	17.0	19.7	-2.72
Earl Boykins	11	12	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.06	0	4	-4	17.1	15.0	2.10	21.8	17.2	4.59
Corey Maggette	60	57	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	-0.06	-5	9	-14	15.1	15.6	-0.58	17.2	19.3	-2.15
Sean Rooks	29	26	-0.25	0.75	-1.01	-0.05	-7	11	-18	16.2	14.8	1.48	15.9	18.7	-2.81
Darius Miles	24	24	-0.39	0.89	-1.28	-0.01	-13	17	-30	15.6	15.1	0.52	15.9	18.7	-2.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.48,0.41,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.48,0.56,0.52,0.38,0.31,0.29,0.42,0.37,0.41,0.24,0.33,0.45,0.28,0.77,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 112, UTA 116	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.3,0.22,0.29,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.24,0.4,0.45,0.46,0.66,0.82,1	92.7%
LAL 95, NYK 99	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.28,0.42,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.48,0.38,0.47,0.27,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.31,0.21,0.68,0.99,1	92.0%
ORL 91, BOS 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.34,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.4,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.31,0.45,0.53,0.36,0.85,0.91,1	91.9%