NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	102		Excitement	6.5 [533]		MVP	Mike Dunleavy (GSW): +19.8%
Golden State Warriors	111		Comeback	2.0 [322]		LVP	Tony Parker (SAS): -13.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brent Barry	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04	0.05	-0.02	-0.01	7	71%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.02	6	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Michael Finley	0.03	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	-0.02	0.02	13	56%	0.03	0	0.00	6	100%	0.02
Beno Udrih	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	9	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Francisco Elson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	40%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Robert Horry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	18	52%	0.04	5	-0.13	6	67%	-0.01
Fabricio Oberto	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.05	-0.00	6	17%	-0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.14	0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14	0.00	-0.06	0.08	23	54%	-0.04	4	-0.09	6	100%	0.03

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2	0.20	0.10	0.10	0.01	13	67%	0.22	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Jason Richardson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.12	-0.01	-0.02	20	65%	0.19	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.00	15	56%	0.08	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	4	78%	0.07	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.03	0.01	11	50%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Anthony Roberson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Keith McLeod	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	4	57%	0.01	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.02
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	0.02	0.02	16	49%	0.03	4	-0.08	7	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	1.8	28.2	15.4	24.5	2.5	37.4	132.1
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +65.1%

SAS -9.0%

SAS -15.1%

GSW +6.9%

GSW +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	GSW	NBA	SAS	GSW	NBA
this game	15.8	13.6	15.4	105.2	112.1	104.5
season	16.2	13.5		107.5	105.7
opponent	15.2	15.4		105.7	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.5	14.3	18.2	15.6	15.8
GSW	13.9	14.0	14.5	12.3	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Beno Udrih	30	28	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.01	0	-9	9	14.9	16.2	-1.25	13.7	13.6	0.19
Eric Williams	10	9	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.02	0	-9	9	16.3	15.7	0.56	13.0	13.7	-0.68
Fabricio Oberto	35	35	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.07	-2	-7	5	16.7	15.3	1.44	14.2	13.3	0.86
Francisco Elson	20	21	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.03	-6	-3	-3	16.4	15.6	0.76	13.8	13.6	0.25
Robert Horry	10	11	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.07	-8	-1	-7	16.4	15.7	0.68	11.3	13.9	-2.64
Michael Finley	77	77	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.27	2	-11	13	15.3	17.5	-2.21	13.9	12.6	1.32
Tony Parker	76	80	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.28	-4	-5	1	16.0	15.2	0.77	13.8	12.9	0.89
Tim Duncan	79	81	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.33	-3	-6	3	16.4	13.2	3.23	13.7	13.4	0.28
Bruce Bowen	87	90	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.22	-9	0	-9	15.7	16.3	-0.56	13.7	13.0	0.68
Brent Barry	61	63	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.08	-15	6	-21	15.0	17.2	-2.18	13.0	14.8	-1.83

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Dunleavy	66	63	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.26	15	-6	21	13.0	14.9	-1.94	15.9	15.7	0.18
Jason Richardson	92	90	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.21	13	-4	17	13.4	16.1	-2.72	16.0	13.7	2.24
Andris Biedrins	83	82	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.29	10	-1	11	14.0	11.8	2.15	16.7	10.8	5.91
Monta Ellis	69	67	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.35	7	2	5	14.1	12.6	1.51	15.1	17.4	-2.28
Matt Barnes	93	91	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.22	7	2	5	13.8	11.3	2.43	15.8	15.3	0.49
Anthony Roberson	2	2	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.01	0	9	-9	12.5	13.6	-1.14	3.5	16.1	-12.55
Keith McLeod	54	53	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.17	5	4	1	12.5	15.0	-2.54	15.9	15.7	0.25
Troy Murphy	36	37	-0.32	0.82	-1.15	0.03	-12	21	-33	15.0	12.8	2.22	15.0	16.3	-1.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.48,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.38,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.62,0.52,0.73,0.83,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.94,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 99, SAS 110	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.43,0.41,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.37,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.7,0.57,0.71,0.57,0.72,0.86,0.96,0.98,1,0.99,1,1,1	92.9%
CLE 76, IND 91	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.66,0.57,0.68,0.79,0.81,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	92.7%
NYK 99, SAC 107	0.5,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.37,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.59,0.54,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.38,0.26,0.35,0.27,0.37,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.66,0.67,0.84,0.92,0.94,0.99,0.98,1,1,0.99,1	92.6%