NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	99		Excitement	6.0 [584]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +31.3%
San Antonio Spurs	110		Comeback	2.1 [764]		LVP	Jannero Pargo (NOH): -9.0%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Paul	0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.18	0.07	0.03	25	64%	0.25	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.03
Tyson Chandler	0.07	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	0.00	0.01	5	86%	0.10	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Julian Wright	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	4	60%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Peja Stojakovic	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	7	44%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
David West	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	19	52%	0.07	2	-0.05	6	50%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.02	-0.03	3	50%	0.04	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bonzi Wells	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	8	37%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Melvin Ely	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.03	0.02	5	40%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jannero Pargo	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	7	14%	-0.09	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.31	0.12	0.19	0.00	22	62%	0.37	3	-0.05	6	100%	0.04
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	-0.01	0.08	-0.03	13	48%	0.16	2	-0.06	7	57%	-0.04
Bruce Bowen	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.04	-0.03	11	55%	0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.05	0.01	24	55%	0.17	3	-0.08	8	87%	0.02
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	-0.02	0.00	7	79%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	1	150%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ime Udoka	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	3.5	32.3	19.8	35.1	3.6	29.4	149.6
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +43.4%

SAS +6.2%

SAS +5.4%

NOH -2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	SAS	NBA	NOH	SAS	NBA
this game	15.4	16.1	15.4	108.8	119.6	105.7
season	15.9	16.5		109.6	104.7
opponent	15.3	15.7		100.5	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	14.9	15.3	16.1	15.0	15.4
SAS	15.7	16.7	13.3	19.2	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Morris Peterson	45	45	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.01	2	-13	15	12.8	17.9	-5.14	17.2	15.1	2.03
Ryan Bowen	3	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-12	13	11.7	15.5	-3.81	19.3	16.0	3.32
Tyson Chandler	67	66	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.05	-4	-7	3	15.0	16.2	-1.22	17.5	12.7	4.78
Jannero Pargo	28	28	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.05	-5	-6	1	17.7	14.3	3.41	15.9	16.2	-0.38
Peja Stojakovic	70	70	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.03	-9	-2	-7	14.6	17.9	-3.32	15.9	16.9	-1.04
Bonzi Wells	30	32	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.08	-8	-3	-5	17.9	14.1	3.80	15.4	16.5	-1.09
Melvin Ely	24	26	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.13	-7	-4	-3	16.2	15.0	1.22	12.7	17.5	-4.78
Julian Wright	27	27	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.20	-6	-5	-1	17.7	14.4	3.34	17.0	15.8	1.25
Chris Paul	79	79	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.14	-8	-3	-5	15.4	15.1	0.31	16.4	14.3	2.11
David West	82	84	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.18	-11	0	-11	15.0	18.4	-3.43	15.5	23.1	-7.67

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	81	83	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.04	15	-4	19	16.3	15.1	1.17	15.2	17.2	-2.08
Tony Parker	77	76	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.15	10	1	9	16.2	15.8	0.38	15.4	14.9	0.58
Fabricio Oberto	50	46	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.13	9	2	7	14.1	18.5	-4.38	16.4	14.2	2.19
Michael Finley	44	43	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.13	8	3	5	15.2	17.0	-1.84	15.6	15.1	0.52
Bruce Bowen	77	77	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.09	9	2	7	16.6	13.5	3.09	15.2	16.1	-0.94
Manu Ginobili	79	79	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.14	5	6	-1	15.8	17.9	-2.10	15.0	17.8	-2.86
Kurt Thomas	40	39	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.09	1	10	-9	17.4	15.2	2.22	15.9	14.9	0.96
Robert Horry	2	3	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.07	0	11	-11	17.0	16.1	0.90	4.0	15.7	-11.74
Ime Udoka	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	12	-13	19.3	16.0	3.32	11.7	15.5	-3.81
Jacque Vaughn	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	12	-13	17.0	16.1	0.90	6.0	15.5	-9.46
Brent Barry	5	5	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.00	0	11	-11	25.6	15.6	10.03	19.4	15.1	4.28

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.43,0.41,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.37,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.7,0.57,0.71,0.57,0.72,0.86,0.96,0.98,1,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 102, GSW 111	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.48,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.38,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.62,0.52,0.73,0.83,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.94,1,1	92.9%
VAN 82, MIA 88	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.34,0.48,0.48,0.62,0.73,0.69,0.62,0.88,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.9,0.85,0.9,0.95,1	92.8%
LAC 101, TOR 109	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.53,0.54,0.62,0.56,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.62,0.68,0.83,0.92,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1	92.8%