NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Vancouver Grizzlies	82		Excitement	6.5 [490]		MVP	Voshon Lenard (MIA): +19.8%
Miami Heat	88		Comeback	2.3 [999]		LVP	Anthony Peeler (VAN): -31.2%

Vancouver Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron Williams	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	-0.01	0.01	6	83%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lawrence Moten	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Blue Edwards	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chris Robinson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Reeves	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05	0.04	-0.07	0.02	21	56%	-0.03	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.08
Roy Rogers	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.12	-0.04	-0.02	6	17%	-0.08	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.09	-0.05	0.01	12	56%	-0.02	5	-0.13	10	90%	0.02
Greg Anthony	-0.24	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.24,-0.24	-0.16	-0.10	-0.02	10	33%	-0.13	4	-0.11	4	50%	-0.04
Anthony Peeler	-0.31	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.26,-0.3,-0.31	-0.15	-0.18	-0.02	18	31%	-0.24	2	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.10	0.11	0.01	9	85%	0.26	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Keith Askins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.03	0.00	8	81%	0.14	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	8	61%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Ed Pinckney	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Crotty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	13	47%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Willie Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.03	-0.04	22	43%	0.04	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Ike Austin	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.22,-0.22,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.13	-0.09	-0.00	11	42%	-0.05	5	-0.16	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.6	2.4	22.5	15.7	24.2	2.7	35.3	124.4
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +70.1%

VAN -4.2%

VAN -28.0%

MIA +11.9%

MIA +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	VAN	MIA	NBA	VAN	MIA	NBA
this game	17.0	15.4	15.6	93.2	97.8	104.4
season	16.3	15.8		97.9	103.1
opponent	16.3	15.5		98.3	109.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
VAN	16.5	17.6	16.9	17.2	17.0
MIA	13.5	19.3	13.8	15.5	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Vancouver Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lawrence Moten	2	2	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.06	-6	0	-6	22.5	16.9	5.64	3.5	15.7	-12.16
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	68	69	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.18	0	-6	6	17.1	16.4	0.70	14.8	17.3	-2.54
Bryant Reeves	75	77	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.27	1	-7	8	17.2	15.5	1.70	15.3	15.8	-0.53
Anthony Peeler	69	69	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.30	2	-8	10	16.6	18.4	-1.76	15.6	14.8	0.76
Roy Rogers	56	56	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.17	-3	-3	0	16.8	17.4	-0.61	15.4	15.4	-0.08
Chris Robinson	19	21	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.03	-8	2	-10	18.4	16.6	1.76	14.8	15.6	-0.76
Blue Edwards	20	21	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.14	-6	0	-6	16.4	17.1	-0.70	17.3	14.8	2.54
Greg Anthony	86	88	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.38	0	-6	6	16.9	22.5	-5.64	15.7	3.5	12.16
Aaron Williams	45	47	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.22	-10	4	-14	16.8	17.1	-0.30	15.6	15.2	0.34

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keith Askins	58	56	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.30	12	-6	18	15.6	15.1	0.51	17.4	16.3	1.11
P.J. Brown	84	80	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.34	8	-2	10	15.4	14.7	0.77	17.1	15.4	1.78
Tim Hardaway	82	81	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.29	7	-1	8	14.4	25.7	-11.37	16.8	18.7	-1.87
Voshon Lenard	71	69	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.30	-1	7	-8	15.2	16.1	-0.84	16.6	18.3	-1.63
Willie Anderson	19	19	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.03	7	-1	8	16.1	15.2	0.84	18.3	16.6	1.63
Ike Austin	60	60	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.23	-1	7	-8	15.6	14.9	0.73	17.0	17.0	-0.02
Jamal Mashburn	54	54	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.10	0	6	-6	14.7	16.4	-1.76	16.5	17.8	-1.26
John Crotty	12	12	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	7	-8	22.0	14.4	7.63	16.2	17.1	-0.95
Ed Pinckney	10	9	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.01	-1	7	-8	16.6	15.2	1.36	18.4	16.8	1.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.34,0.48,0.48,0.62,0.73,0.69,0.62,0.88,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.9,0.85,0.9,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 84, BOS 91	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.48,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.76,0.88,0.9,0.97,0.97,0.97,1,1,1,1	93.8%
UTA 80, IND 94	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.56,0.55,0.45,0.37,0.39,0.4,0.54,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.73,0.9,0.95,0.96,0.97,1,1,1,1	93.0%
IND 87, NOH 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.4,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.39,0.41,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.75,0.83,0.91,0.83,0.84,0.87,0.81,0.93,0.9,0.92,1	92.9%