NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	87		Excitement	7.9 [289]		MVP	Jamaal Tinsley (IND): +46.7%
New Orleans Hornets	90		Comeback	2.7 [743]		LVP	Jermaine O'Neal (IND): -31.2%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamaal Tinsley	0.47	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.47	0.06	0.41	0.00	18	67%	0.55	4	-0.09	6	83%	0.02
Fred Jones	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.00	6	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Foster	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.01	0.02	6	67%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	5	42%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
James Jones	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	3	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Miller	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	6	56%	-0.03	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.04
Michael Curry	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	3	25%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.06
Austin Croshere	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	6	33%	-0.04	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.31	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.19,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.26,-0.26,-0.31	-0.09	-0.20	0.01	23	45%	-0.18	3	-0.13	7	57%	-0.16

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lee Nailon	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.10	0.07	0.00	22	60%	0.17	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Junior Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	4	60%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	3	82%	0.07	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.01
P.J. Brown	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.04	-0.04	-0.08	0.04	-0.01	7	44%	0.06	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.11
J.R. Smith	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	8	35%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Matt Freije	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Rogers	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.08,-0.12,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.01	-0.00	8	60%	0.10	5	-0.16	4	100%	0.04
Dan Dickau	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.04	0.02	13	55%	-0.01	2	-0.06	5	60%	-0.06
Bostjan Nachbar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.05	-0.00	5	8%	-0.12	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.8	29.5	15.8	25.3	1.7	42.2	140.5
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND -21.1%

NOH +45.0%

NOH +23.8%

IND -2.2%

NOH +4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	NOH	NBA	IND	NOH	NBA
this game	16.6	15.2	15.5	96.7	98.9	104.0
season	16.8	16.5		101.9	97.7
opponent	15.7	15.5		105.2	101.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	15.3	16.8	19.5	15.1	16.6
NOH	14.1	15.9	14.8	16.2	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Jones	44	46	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-4	5	16.1	17.1	-1.02	15.0	15.4	-0.36
Jeff Foster	71	70	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.24	8	-11	19	16.4	17.3	-0.83	15.2	15.4	-0.27
Reggie Miller	61	62	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.34	8	-11	19	15.6	18.7	-3.12	15.1	15.4	-0.23
Jamaal Tinsley	68	70	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.37	5	-8	13	15.7	19.5	-3.88	15.3	14.9	0.41
Michael Curry	24	24	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.08	-6	3	-9	18.7	15.8	2.92	15.5	15.1	0.44
Anthony Johnson	22	21	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.04	-8	5	-13	19.5	15.7	3.88	14.9	15.3	-0.41
Jermaine O'Neal	72	74	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.44	-1	-2	1	15.9	19.6	-3.68	15.4	14.5	0.92
Austin Croshere	37	38	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.14	-13	10	-23	18.4	15.4	3.00	15.0	15.4	-0.38
Fred Jones	51	50	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.38	-9	6	-15	17.3	15.8	1.49	15.3	15.1	0.22

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lee Nailon	86	86	0.90	-0.40	1.30	0.58	11	-8	19	14.9	21.2	-6.33	16.8	12.5	4.30
Junior Harrington	24	24	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.29	6	-3	9	16.4	14.8	1.57	16.5	16.7	-0.15
Bostjan Nachbar	36	35	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.15	10	-7	17	14.4	15.8	-1.37	18.5	15.4	3.16
Chris Andersen	43	41	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.27	4	-1	5	14.4	15.9	-1.47	17.7	15.7	2.01
Rodney Rogers	71	69	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.41	-4	7	-11	15.6	13.8	1.76	15.7	19.8	-4.11
P.J. Brown	55	56	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.15	4	-1	5	15.2	15.3	-0.10	16.4	16.9	-0.44
Dan Dickau	69	68	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.23	-3	6	-9	14.7	16.9	-2.17	16.3	17.6	-1.36
Matt Freije	13	14	0.05	0.45	-0.41	-0.01	2	1	1	15.8	15.1	0.73	18.8	16.2	2.58
J.R. Smith	58	57	-0.45	0.95	-1.39	-0.01	-15	18	-33	16.4	13.2	3.25	15.6	18.4	-2.81

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.4,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.39,0.41,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.75,0.83,0.91,0.83,0.84,0.87,0.81,0.93,0.9,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 103, MIN 110	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.4,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.48,0.49,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.58,0.57,0.7,0.8,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.73,0.69,0.89,0.96,0.92,1	93.0%
VAN 82, MIA 88	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.34,0.48,0.48,0.62,0.73,0.69,0.62,0.88,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.9,0.85,0.9,0.95,1	92.9%
ATL 75, DET 82	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.58,0.48,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.57,0.71,0.83,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.89,0.99,0.97,1	92.9%