NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	75		Excitement	5.2 [755]		MVP	Joe Dumars (DET): +9.3%
Detroit Pistons	82		Comeback	2.6 [644]		LVP	Mookie Blaylock (ATL): -16.5%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Christian Laettner	0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.02	17	57%	0.03	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Steven Smith	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02	0.06	-0.05	0.03	13	73%	0.10	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.02	17	49%	-0.03	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Tyrone Corbin	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0.00	5	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Henry James	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Alan Henderson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	3	12%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jon Barry	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mookie Blaylock	-0.17	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17	-0.15	-0.02	-0.01	13	29%	-0.09	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Dumars	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.04	-0.00	14	67%	0.18	3	-0.08	5	100%	0.01
Otis Thorpe	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.04	-0.01	9	50%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Grant Hill	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0	0.00	-0.05	0.04	-0.02	19	51%	0.07	3	-0.07	7	71%	0.01
Michael Curry	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	5	64%	0.01	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Terry Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.01	-0.03	7	21%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron McKie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Long	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	12	42%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	1.8	24.2	17.4	23.6	2.6	36.0	128.9
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +34.0%

DET +7.1%

DET +0.6%

DET +5.5%

DET +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	DET	NBA	ATL	DET	NBA
this game	18.2	17.8	15.6	93.8	102.5	104.4
season	16.4	17.1		105.3	107.6
opponent	16.2	16.0		102.0	100.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	16.9	17.0	21.7	17.5	18.2
DET	19.1	15.7	17.1	19.4	17.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jon Barry	16	17	0.06	-0.56	0.63	-0.08	5	-12	17	18.5	18.2	0.33	20.7	17.0	3.74
Dikembe Mutombo	72	71	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.28	4	-11	15	18.1	19.6	-1.54	18.1	15.2	2.86
Alan Henderson	17	18	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.09	-3	-4	1	17.4	18.5	-1.05	15.9	18.3	-2.42
Tyrone Corbin	53	53	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.18	0	-7	7	17.7	19.4	-1.71	17.3	18.7	-1.42
Henry James	23	23	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.09	-7	0	-7	19.3	17.8	1.50	17.0	18.1	-1.01
Steven Smith	77	75	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.27	-7	0	-7	18.3	16.7	1.63	17.7	19.2	-1.53
Mookie Blaylock	71	72	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.27	-12	5	-17	18.2	18.6	-0.36	17.7	17.9	-0.12
Christian Laettner	71	71	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.22	-15	8	-23	18.6	15.4	3.15	17.9	16.6	1.36

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lindsey Hunter	72	71	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.27	12	-5	17	17.7	17.9	-0.12	18.2	18.6	-0.36
Terry Mills	48	48	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.27	10	-3	13	17.8	17.7	0.18	19.8	15.9	3.83
Otis Thorpe	72	73	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.28	9	-2	11	17.5	19.9	-2.35	18.1	20.1	-2.09
Joe Dumars	74	72	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.32	6	1	5	18.0	15.2	2.81	18.2	18.1	0.13
Grant Hill	69	71	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.27	6	1	5	17.9	17.1	0.78	18.2	18.6	-0.36
Grant Long	11	10	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.00	1	6	-5	17.1	17.9	-0.78	18.7	18.2	0.53
Michael Curry	7	7	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.01	-1	8	-9	17.3	17.8	-0.52	19.7	18.1	1.62
Theo Ratliff	28	28	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.03	-4	11	-15	18.1	17.6	0.53	15.8	19.5	-3.72
Aaron McKie	19	20	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.02	-4	11	-15	17.4	17.9	-0.52	18.1	18.3	-0.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.58,0.48,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.57,0.71,0.83,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.89,0.99,0.97,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 98, PHI 117	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.58,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.56,0.46,0.54,0.67,0.76,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.5%
WAS 99, ATL 114	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.51,0.58,0.67,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.42,0.36,0.3,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.56,0.53,0.64,0.54,0.44,0.67,0.86,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.5%
MIN 84, BOS 91	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.48,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.76,0.88,0.9,0.97,0.97,0.97,1,1,1,1	93.3%