NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	99		Excitement	5.3 [768]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +16.9%
Dallas Mavericks	111		Comeback	1.3 [874]		LVP	Thabo Sefolosha (CHI): -6.1%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luol Deng	0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.14	0.01	0.02	13	77%	0.16	2	-0.02	5	80%	-0.00
Andres Nocioni	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.01	0.03	7	69%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Malik Allen	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.01	0.03	17	60%	0.08	5	-0.11	8	62%	-0.02
Ben Gordon	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	18	40%	0.00	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.01
Ben Wallace	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	6	35%	-0.04	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.02
Chris Duhon	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	6	17%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	1	25%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
P.J. Brown	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	9	35%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.13	0.04	0.00	19	63%	0.21	2	-0.04	11	100%	0.03
Erick Dampier	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.12	0.02	0.01	8	87%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.11	0.11	0.11	0.02	0.03	14	62%	0.11	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	4	37%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.02	14	52%	0.10	2	-0.07	5	100%	0.03
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	75%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.02	7	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Maurice Ager	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.02	0.01	8	56%	0.04	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	2.5	32.2	15.5	27.4	2.5	35.6	136.8
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +48.8%

DAL +8.1%

CHI -2.4%

CHI -3.8%

CHI -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	DAL	NBA	CHI	DAL	NBA
this game	14.8	17.0	15.4	111.2	120.7	104.5
season	14.5	16.3		103.1	108.7
opponent	15.2	15.9		102.3	98.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.1	16.9	15.5	12.4	14.8
DAL	18.3	17.4	18.8	14.2	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Thabo Sefolosha	11	11	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.02	0	-12	12	13.6	15.0	-1.36	19.5	16.6	2.84
Tyrus Thomas	5	4	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.04	-4	-8	4	17.0	14.7	2.30	14.7	17.1	-2.31
Chris Duhon	41	41	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.10	0	-12	12	17.0	13.0	3.98	15.3	18.3	-2.96
Malik Allen	18	18	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.07	-2	-10	8	15.1	14.8	0.28	18.6	16.6	2.06
P.J. Brown	33	33	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.11	-5	-7	2	16.6	13.8	2.77	16.7	17.1	-0.45
Luol Deng	77	80	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.20	-5	-7	2	14.5	16.9	-2.41	17.0	16.7	0.33
Andres Nocioni	51	55	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.06	-10	-2	-8	14.6	15.1	-0.43	17.6	16.0	1.55
Ben Gordon	66	68	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.10	-9	-3	-6	13.4	18.9	-5.45	17.4	15.7	1.69
Ben Wallace	65	68	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.06	-12	0	-12	15.0	14.4	0.57	16.4	18.6	-2.26
Kirk Hinrich	78	82	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.12	-13	1	-14	14.4	17.5	-3.10	17.0	16.9	0.06

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Buckner	51	49	0.52	-0.02	0.55	-0.06	20	-8	28	16.7	17.2	-0.47	15.3	14.3	0.97
Dirk Nowitzki	74	70	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.04	15	-3	18	16.6	18.3	-1.64	14.7	15.4	-0.75
Erick Dampier	69	65	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.06	14	-2	16	17.7	14.8	2.90	14.7	15.2	-0.52
Jason Terry	70	68	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.10	9	3	6	17.1	16.4	0.72	15.0	14.2	0.84
Anthony Johnson	33	33	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.04	9	3	6	18.9	15.8	3.09	15.4	14.5	0.94
Jerry Stackhouse	53	52	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.08	4	8	-4	16.0	18.3	-2.30	14.2	15.7	-1.49
Devin Harris	57	54	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.23	-1	13	-14	16.4	17.9	-1.45	14.7	15.0	-0.28
Jose Juan Barea	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	12	-12	7.0	17.1	-10.07	8.0	14.9	-6.91
DeSagana Diop	19	20	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.17	-6	18	-24	17.5	16.8	0.65	15.7	14.6	1.18
Maurice Ager	8	7	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.04	-2	14	-16	19.6	16.7	2.92	11.3	15.1	-3.85
Devean George	25	26	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	14	-16	15.7	17.4	-1.70	15.5	14.6	0.94

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.65,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.83,0.91,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,0.96,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 99, CHI 109	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.56,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.69,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.79,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	94.7%
DET 97, DEN 109	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.58,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.44,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.75,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.52,0.62,0.69,0.74,0.81,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.98,0.97,1,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.95,1,1,1	94.7%
CHI 91, BOS 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.59,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.63,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.72,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.84,0.85,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.94,0.84,1	94.6%