NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	91		Excitement	6.0 [480]		MVP	Kevin Garnett (BOS): +7.3%
Boston Celtics	95		Comeback	1.0 [559]		LVP	CJ Watson (CHI): -20.1%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joakim Noah	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	-0.00	0.02	10	67%	0.07	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.01
Carlos Boozer	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.02	16	61%	0.08	4	-0.09	4	100%	0.02
John Lucas III	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	9	44%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Omer Asik	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Brewer	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Taj Gibson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	6	21%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kyle Korver	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	30%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	0.00	-0.01	12	33%	-0.05	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.02
CJ Watson	-0.20	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.2	-0.08	-0.12	0.01	23	42%	-0.12	3	-0.08	6	50%	-0.03

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.04	-0.02	8	65%	0.12	3	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.02	22	56%	0.16	5	-0.10	13	77%	-0.01
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	75%	0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	0.00
Chris Wilcox	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	6	73%	0.06	2	-0.02	3	33%	-0.01
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.00	9	50%	0.06	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Avery Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Stiemsma	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JaJuan Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	0.00	13	46%	-0.00	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	10	45%	0.05	4	-0.16	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.1	2.7	29.5	18.4	28.5	3.4	40.6	152.1
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +55.2%

BOS +5.6%

BOS +1.2%

CHI -13.4%

BOS +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	BOS	NBA	CHI	BOS	NBA
this game	15.5	14.3	15.6	92.9	100.0	102.8
season	16.0	15.5		104.7	99.4
opponent	16.2	15.9		97.1	97.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.9	16.4	17.4	12.7	15.5
BOS	12.9	14.2	16.0	14.5	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Omer Asik	18	16	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.07	-2	-2	0	17.9	15.0	2.93	17.0	13.8	3.22
Ronnie Brewer	64	64	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.20	1	-5	6	15.2	16.0	-0.72	14.1	14.8	-0.71
Taj Gibson	25	22	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.03	-5	1	-6	16.6	15.1	1.48	16.0	13.8	2.24
John Lucas III	24	21	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.12	-4	0	-4	15.3	15.6	-0.22	15.0	14.1	0.93
Kyle Korver	41	37	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.31	2	-6	8	14.6	16.2	-1.61	14.9	14.0	0.88
Joakim Noah	71	71	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.07	-8	4	-12	16.1	14.0	2.12	14.3	14.5	-0.23
Carlos Boozer	72	72	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.41	1	-5	6	15.1	16.6	-1.47	13.7	16.2	-2.44
CJ Watson	86	85	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.39	-1	-3	2	15.6	14.7	0.95	14.0	17.1	-3.10
Luol Deng	89	87	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.33	-4	0	-4	15.1	19.4	-4.34	14.0	17.6	-3.60

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Garnett	55	56	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.18	16	-12	28	13.7	15.1	-1.42	16.9	13.7	3.21
Rajon Rondo	81	83	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.34	8	-4	12	13.8	17.6	-3.81	15.2	16.9	-1.69
Paul Pierce	76	76	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.19	9	-5	14	13.7	16.9	-3.21	15.2	16.6	-1.47
Ray Allen	72	73	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.34	3	1	2	14.5	13.8	0.66	15.2	16.2	-0.99
JaJuan Johnson	63	64	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.32	-1	5	-6	15.2	12.6	2.57	15.9	14.7	1.17
Chris Wilcox	54	54	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.03	4	0	4	14.4	14.2	0.23	16.0	14.8	1.20
Mickael Pietrus	37	41	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.26	-4	8	-12	14.1	14.5	-0.45	13.7	16.8	-3.17
Greg Stiemsma	9	10	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.11	-5	9	-14	15.1	14.2	0.87	13.8	15.7	-1.89
Avery Bradley	14	15	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.04	-4	8	-12	17.6	13.8	3.81	16.9	15.2	1.69
Keyon Dooling	14	18	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.10	-6	10	-16	15.3	14.2	1.13	15.7	15.4	0.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.59,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.63,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.72,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.84,0.85,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.94,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 86, MIA 92	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.71,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.61,0.59,0.66,0.71,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.7,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.95,0.95,0.98,1,0.99,1,1	94.7%
CHH 90, UTA 96	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.6,0.56,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.65,0.71,0.67,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.74,0.74,0.85,0.87,0.88,0.82,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.96,1	94.7%
CHI 99, DAL 111	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.65,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.83,0.91,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,0.96,1,1,1	94.6%