NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	97		Excitement	5.6 [672]		MVP	Kenneth Faried (DEN): +11.2%
Denver Nuggets	109		Comeback	1.4 [1175]		LVP	Brandon Knight (DET): -15.7%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Maxiell	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.02	0.00	4	90%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Andre Drummond	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.01	0.00	3	117%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.01	-0.03	8	61%	0.09	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Kim English	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	2	150%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Greg Monroe	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.02	0.03	20	57%	0.11	2	-0.05	7	100%	0.03
Kyle Singler	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.01	5	64%	0.06	1	-0.00	4	75%	0.01
Charlie Villanueva	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	8	25%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	-0.09	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	17	41%	-0.03	2	-0.05	7	71%	0.00
Will Bynum	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	5	38%	-0.02	2	-0.08	3	100%	0.02
Brandon Knight	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.14	-0.02	-0.01	6	17%	-0.06	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenneth Faried	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.02	0.00	10	65%	0.11	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.04
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	0.02	0.03	11	67%	0.11	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	8	58%	0.09	1	-0.02	10	80%	0.01
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	-0.03	11	50%	0.05	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	13	54%	0.04	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	5	53%	0.03	2	-0.02	5	80%	-0.01
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.00	15	53%	0.06	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	8	31%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.11	-0.00	-0.03	11	36%	-0.00	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	1.8	30.3	16.6	29.0	2.0	33.2	137.1
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +16.3%

DET -2.9%

DEN +27.1%

DEN +8.3%

DEN +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	DEN	NBA	DET	DEN	NBA
this game	15.0	15.6	15.4	103.2	116.0	104.1
season	15.7	14.4		102.3	108.4
opponent	15.4	15.5		104.0	106.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.5	17.5	14.3	13.0	15.0
DEN	17.2	15.2	13.9	16.3	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charlie Villanueva	1	0	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.02	0	-12	12	3.0	15.1	-12.14	0.0	15.6	-15.63
Kyle Singler	40	39	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.14	-2	-10	8	14.5	15.4	-0.93	14.7	16.3	-1.51
Brandon Knight	65	64	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.17	-1	-11	10	14.5	16.1	-1.53	16.1	14.5	1.61
Jason Maxiell	40	41	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.04	-8	-4	-4	17.2	13.4	3.90	16.1	15.2	0.92
Greg Monroe	68	68	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.17	-1	-11	10	14.5	16.4	-1.95	16.4	13.5	2.89
Kim English	20	19	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.03	-6	-6	0	15.1	15.0	0.18	13.6	16.1	-2.57
Andre Drummond	25	25	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.01	-8	-4	-4	17.0	14.3	2.66	13.2	16.5	-3.36
Jonas Jerebko	53	53	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.17	-4	-8	4	13.5	16.9	-3.36	15.2	16.1	-0.92
Will Bynum	29	30	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	0.02	-11	-1	-10	16.1	14.5	1.53	14.5	16.1	-1.61
Tayshaun Prince	54	55	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.01	-10	-2	-8	15.4	14.5	0.93	16.3	14.7	1.51
Rodney Stuckey	75	76	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.09	-9	-3	-6	14.8	15.8	-0.98	16.2	13.1	3.18

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ty Lawson	76	77	0.58	-0.08	0.66	-0.03	21	-9	30	15.5	16.0	-0.46	15.7	11.9	3.75
Corey Brewer	41	41	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.16	5	7	-2	15.2	16.0	-0.81	14.4	15.5	-1.10
JaVale McGee	36	36	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.01	9	3	6	13.9	16.7	-2.73	15.5	14.7	0.79
Danilo Gallinari	60	61	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.17	3	9	-6	16.2	14.6	1.58	15.2	14.6	0.58
Andre Miller	54	54	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.22	1	11	-10	15.4	15.9	-0.56	13.6	17.0	-3.42
Andre Iguodala	71	70	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.07	6	6	0	16.2	14.0	2.21	14.4	16.7	-2.22
Kenneth Faried	41	41	0.21	0.29	-0.07	-0.02	8	4	4	16.1	15.2	0.92	16.9	13.5	3.36
Wilson Chandler	34	33	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.00	7	5	2	14.2	16.4	-2.23	14.7	15.2	-0.48
Kosta Koufos	57	57	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.17	0	12	-12	16.6	14.2	2.37	14.9	15.2	-0.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.58,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.44,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.75,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.52,0.62,0.69,0.74,0.81,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.98,0.97,1,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.95,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 79, UTA 94	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.7,0.77,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.76,0.8,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,0.98,0.99,1,1,1	94.8%
CHI 99, DAL 111	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.65,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.83,0.91,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,0.96,1,1,1	94.7%
MIL 88, LAL 104	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.7,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.7,0.76,0.75,0.73,0.7,0.67,0.68,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.74,0.84,0.88,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%