NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	99		Excitement	4.9 [860]		MVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): +20.9%
Chicago Bulls	109		Comeback	1.2 [822]		LVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): -9.1%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Neal	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.13	0.02	0.05	9	89%	0.14	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.01	-0.00	5	71%	0.10	0	0.00	7	43%	-0.03
Tim Duncan	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	12	58%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.10	-0.01	0.06	21	57%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Chris Quinn	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Novak	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
George Hill	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	7	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
DeJuan Blair	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	4	60%	0.01	2	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Antonio McDyess	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.02	0.02	18	40%	-0.06	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.18,0.21,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.26	0.05	0.10	28	68%	0.24	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.04
Luol Deng	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.03	-0.02	12	63%	0.15	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Ronnie Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.02	0.00	5	64%	0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Keith Bogans	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	4	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	5	60%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	3	62%	0.06	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Omer Asik	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	2	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	14	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.8	35.0	18.8	25.2	2.7	31.0	140.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +30.5%

CHI +5.1%

CHI +18.9%

SAS -3.1%

SAS -1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	CHI	NBA	SAS	CHI	NBA
this game	16.0	16.7	15.5	112.5	123.9	105.7
season	15.5	15.7		109.3	106.5
opponent	15.9	15.2		99.2	103.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.3	16.9	17.9	14.1	16.0
CHI	16.0	14.4	18.1	18.6	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Quinn	2	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-10	10	11.0	16.1	-5.14	15.3	16.8	-1.42
Steve Novak	2	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-10	10	11.0	16.1	-5.14	15.3	16.8	-1.42
DeJuan Blair	37	39	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.04	-6	-4	-2	16.0	16.0	0.01	15.1	18.0	-2.88
George Hill	31	31	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.08	-2	-8	6	16.5	15.8	0.66	16.9	16.6	0.36
Tim Duncan	64	61	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.16	-1	-9	8	15.5	17.5	-1.97	16.2	17.7	-1.49
Gary Neal	39	40	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.13	-4	-6	2	16.7	15.4	1.29	16.2	17.1	-0.97
Antonio McDyess	28	28	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.14	-6	-4	-2	16.4	15.8	0.60	18.5	15.8	2.69
Manu Ginobili	59	58	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.06	-10	0	-10	15.6	16.9	-1.35	16.7	16.7	0.06
Matt Bonner	45	45	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.15	-7	-3	-4	16.8	15.3	1.50	17.7	15.7	1.97
Tony Parker	65	64	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.11	-9	-1	-8	16.3	15.2	1.09	16.8	16.5	0.28
Richard Jefferson	68	68	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.23	-5	-5	0	15.7	17.2	-1.52	16.9	16.1	0.78

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luol Deng	73	74	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.10	18	-8	26	16.8	16.1	0.69	16.0	16.2	-0.23
Derrick Rose	69	70	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.12	15	-5	20	17.0	15.6	1.37	16.1	15.7	0.38
Taj Gibson	51	51	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.18	5	5	0	17.4	15.8	1.64	16.3	15.6	0.69
Omer Asik	26	25	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.08	7	3	4	16.6	16.8	-0.18	16.5	15.8	0.69
Carlos Boozer	55	55	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.11	4	6	-2	16.3	17.4	-1.05	15.6	16.7	-1.08
Kurt Thomas	44	45	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.05	4	6	-2	16.5	16.9	-0.45	15.9	16.1	-0.23
Keith Bogans	33	33	0.15	0.35	-0.21	-0.03	6	4	2	16.4	16.9	-0.50	16.1	16.0	0.11
Ronnie Brewer	34	34	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.16	-1	11	-12	17.0	16.5	0.48	17.0	15.4	1.64
Kyle Korver	36	35	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.18	-3	13	-16	16.5	16.9	-0.39	15.1	16.7	-1.60
CJ Watson	19	18	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.09	-5	15	-20	15.6	17.0	-1.37	15.7	16.1	-0.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.56,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.69,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.79,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 85, MIL 98	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.7,0.72,0.72,0.71,0.6,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.78,0.76,0.74,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.71,0.66,0.76,0.71,0.75,0.74,0.82,0.85,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%
DEN 91, POR 107	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.61,0.64,0.68,0.62,0.71,0.74,0.77,0.82,0.85,0.78,0.85,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%
MIN 83, HOU 89	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.69,0.68,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.78,0.72,0.78,0.71,0.71,0.68,0.72,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.93,0.96,0.99,1,1	95.4%