NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	85		Excitement	5.3 [729]		MVP	Luc Mbah a Moute (MIL): +12.3%
Milwaukee Bucks	98		Comeback	1.0 [1184]		LVP	Tyreke Evans (SAC): -15.5%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Salmons	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.01	0.01	14	55%	0.08	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Thomas Robinson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	-0.00	-0.05	9	40%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Travis Outlaw	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	6	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
James Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jimmer Fredette	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.05	8	53%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Isaiah Thomas	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Francisco Garcia	-0.06	0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	5	25%	-0.06	1	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Aaron Brooks	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	11	40%	-0.03	4	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Jason Thompson	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.05	0.02	10	38%	-0.05	2	-0.07	1	0%	-0.01
Tyreke Evans	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.08	-0.03	0.04	15	49%	-0.06	5	-0.10	5	80%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.03	0.01	10	63%	0.12	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.01
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	2	62%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.09	-0.00	0.07	11	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
John Henson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	21	44%	0.03	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Tobias Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	7	44%	-0.01	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	13	38%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.02	0.01	17	45%	0.04	4	-0.11	4	25%	-0.03
Doron Lamb	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.14	0.00	-0.06	8	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	2.0	29.2	15.4	23.8	1.8	26.2	124.9
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +31.9%

SAC -9.7%

MIL +12.9%

MIL +13.1%

MIL +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	MIL	NBA	SAC	MIL	NBA
this game	15.0	15.6	15.4	90.4	104.3	104.1
season	15.0	14.7		104.7	101.6
opponent	15.3	15.2		103.9	109.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	13.4	16.2	16.5	14.1	15.0
MIL	15.4	13.8	15.5	17.8	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Johnson	20	19	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.04	3	-16	19	15.4	14.9	0.53	12.6	16.4	-3.73
Charles Hayes	27	25	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.03	1	-14	15	17.0	14.2	2.76	15.0	15.8	-0.77
Isaiah Thomas	21	22	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.07	0	-13	13	16.0	14.8	1.19	13.7	16.2	-2.51
Thomas Robinson	49	49	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.02	-7	-6	-1	15.2	14.8	0.44	15.4	15.8	-0.37
Jimmer Fredette	27	26	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.10	-3	-10	7	17.3	14.1	3.12	15.7	15.6	0.07
Travis Outlaw	32	32	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.02	-8	-5	-3	16.0	14.5	1.52	14.6	16.1	-1.49
Francisco Garcia	45	48	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.02	-11	-2	-9	14.4	15.6	-1.13	14.6	16.6	-2.01
Tyreke Evans	45	43	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.28	-3	-10	7	14.2	15.8	-1.68	17.0	14.5	2.48
John Salmons	70	70	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.02	-12	-1	-11	14.7	16.1	-1.41	16.3	13.6	2.66
Aaron Brooks	70	70	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.02	-14	1	-15	14.2	17.4	-3.20	16.3	13.7	2.55
Jason Thompson	64	66	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.14	-11	-2	-9	14.5	16.2	-1.72	16.3	13.9	2.44

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Monta Ellis	80	79	0.67	-0.17	0.83	-0.01	23	-10	33	15.4	16.7	-1.30	15.5	12.5	3.05
Ersan Ilyasova	48	48	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.03	17	-4	21	15.3	16.0	-0.69	15.1	15.0	0.11
Drew Gooden	45	44	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.05	10	3	7	16.1	15.1	0.97	14.2	15.7	-1.51
Brandon Jennings	81	81	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.04	9	4	5	15.6	15.5	0.17	15.6	11.5	4.14
Marquis Daniels	61	61	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.06	7	6	1	16.2	14.5	1.73	15.3	14.6	0.66
Luc Mbah a Moute	50	50	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.04	4	9	-5	15.1	16.2	-1.17	15.7	14.2	1.51
Doron Lamb	30	31	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.16	-2	15	-17	15.6	15.6	-0.06	14.8	15.1	-0.34
Samuel Dalembert	44	44	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.05	1	12	-11	15.7	15.6	0.10	16.1	14.1	1.95
Tobias Harris	27	28	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.11	-2	15	-17	14.6	16.0	-1.42	11.6	16.5	-4.93
John Henson	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	15	-17	21.5	15.3	6.16	4.2	15.5	-11.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.7,0.72,0.72,0.71,0.6,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.78,0.76,0.74,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.71,0.66,0.76,0.71,0.75,0.74,0.82,0.85,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 99, CHI 109	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.56,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.69,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.79,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	95.7%
DEN 91, POR 107	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.61,0.64,0.68,0.62,0.71,0.74,0.77,0.82,0.85,0.78,0.85,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.0%
DEN 100, PHX 113	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.57,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.79,0.78,0.76,0.76,0.71,0.67,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.85,0.81,0.79,0.78,0.68,0.7,0.82,0.82,0.86,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1	94.7%