NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	102		Excitement	5.8 [660]		MVP	Ike Diogu (GSW): +29.6%
Golden State Warriors	114		Comeback	2.4 [782]		LVP	Jason Terry (DAL): -9.3%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.11	0.02	0.03	22	58%	0.13	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Darrell Armstrong	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.01	-0.03	3	57%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Adrian Griffin	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Powell	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	0.02	0.06	4	80%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Rawle Marshall	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	25%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	12	57%	0.13	4	-0.13	4	75%	-0.01
Erick Dampier	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	14	50%	0.06	2	-0.09	8	87%	0.03
DJ Mbenga	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	-0.02	0.04	8	67%	0.04	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Jason Terry	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.15	-0.01	-0.07	17	29%	-0.07	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ike Diogu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.26,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.23	0.11	0.04	7	81%	0.30	0	0.00	13	92%	0.04
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.04	-0.01	10	73%	0.14	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.04	0.02	9	77%	0.17	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.11,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.02	0.05	-0.02	15	60%	0.17	6	-0.11	12	83%	0.03
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	58%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Will Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	4	25%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	7	21%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	8	55%	0.04	4	-0.10	4	75%	0.01
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	9	41%	-0.02	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	2.6	36.7	17.0	26.0	3.0	36.4	147.6
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +31.3%

GSW +6.2%

GSW +8.5%

GSW +4.7%

DAL -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	GSW	NBA	DAL	GSW	NBA
this game	15.7	14.3	15.6	106.2	118.8	104.4
season	16.4	14.8		109.0	102.9
opponent	15.5	15.6		104.0	102.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	16.7	18.2	14.4	13.5	15.7
GSW	14.6	11.8	15.6	15.3	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darrell Armstrong	23	23	0.08	-0.58	0.67	-0.12	7	-19	26	12.1	16.8	-4.73	12.4	14.9	-2.53
Rawle Marshall	7	7	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-16	20	9.1	16.2	-7.06	14.0	14.3	-0.34
DJ Mbenga	3	3	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.03	-3	-9	6	23.0	15.5	7.55	12.7	14.4	-1.70
Josh Howard	67	66	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.03	-2	-10	8	16.0	15.0	0.99	15.0	12.9	2.10
Dirk Nowitzki	71	70	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.05	-8	-4	-4	15.7	15.7	0.01	14.4	14.0	0.48
Erick Dampier	37	39	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.28	3	-15	18	16.4	15.3	1.12	15.5	13.5	2.02
DeSagana Diop	39	38	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.18	-13	1	-14	16.7	15.0	1.74	13.9	14.6	-0.74
Marquis Daniels	47	48	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.32	3	-15	18	15.5	15.9	-0.39	14.7	13.9	0.79
Adrian Griffin	19	21	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.07	-7	-5	-2	16.6	15.5	1.11	12.9	14.7	-1.86
Josh Powell	30	30	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.25	-4	-8	4	15.1	15.9	-0.81	15.3	13.9	1.44
Jerry Stackhouse	67	66	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	0.13	-21	9	-30	15.8	15.5	0.24	13.9	15.2	-1.29
Jason Terry	70	69	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	0.05	-19	7	-26	16.0	14.7	1.31	14.0	15.1	-1.16

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ike Diogu	44	45	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.12	17	-5	22	14.1	14.5	-0.33	16.5	15.0	1.47
Jason Richardson	70	70	0.57	-0.07	0.64	-0.10	23	-11	34	13.3	17.0	-3.63	16.3	14.2	2.10
Monta Ellis	56	56	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.12	14	-2	16	14.0	14.8	-0.84	16.3	14.8	1.48
Andris Biedrins	36	37	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.26	4	8	-4	16.5	13.0	3.46	17.1	14.8	2.31
Mike Dunleavy	74	74	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.05	10	2	8	14.2	14.6	-0.36	15.2	17.4	-2.17
Will Bynum	21	22	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.05	9	3	6	15.6	14.0	1.61	18.0	15.0	3.00
Derek Fisher	77	76	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.13	2	10	-8	13.9	15.9	-1.97	14.7	19.4	-4.69
Adonal Foyle	28	28	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.12	3	9	-6	14.7	14.1	0.57	15.3	15.8	-0.52
Troy Murphy	59	58	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.10	-8	20	-28	14.1	14.6	-0.46	14.4	17.7	-3.35
Mickael Pietrus	15	14	-0.26	0.76	-1.03	0.15	-14	26	-40	16.1	14.0	2.16	14.6	15.9	-1.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.63,0.59,0.62,0.53,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.52,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.85,0.96,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 80, LAL 93	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.35,0.4,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.44,0.47,0.41,0.48,0.58,0.56,0.5,0.6,0.54,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.77,0.83,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.89,0.95,1,1	93.8%
MIN 112, DAL 119	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.33,0.31,0.41,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.29,0.32,0.41,0.59,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.89,0.96,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.4%
OKC 84, BOS 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.43,0.34,0.37,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.28,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.7,0.7,0.86,0.8,0.94,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.3%