NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	112		Excitement	5.5 [693]		MVP	Michael Finley (DAL): +31.6%
Dallas Mavericks	119		Comeback	3.1 [650]		LVP	Antoine Walker (DAL): -19.5%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Cassell	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.16	0.01	0.04	20	77%	0.22	4	-0.10	4	75%	0.01
Gary Trent	0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.13	0.01	0.05	8	85%	0.09	0	0.00	10	80%	0.02
Mark Madsen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Oliver Miller	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trenton Hassell	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith McLeod	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	2	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Fred Hoiberg	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	6	25%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Latrell Sprewell	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12	-0.03	-0.03	0.06	21	50%	-0.01	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	-0.14	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.08	-0.05	0.00	28	44%	-0.09	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.21	0.14	0.03	15	80%	0.32	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.17	0.03	-0.03	15	77%	0.26	1	-0.03	10	80%	-0.01
Steve Nash	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.02	16	54%	0.05	1	-0.00	5	100%	0.04
Josh Howard	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	10	65%	0.09	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	78%	0.05	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.08	0.01	-0.03	10	38%	-0.04	1	-0.00	6	67%	0.01
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.14	-0.06	-0.01	14	37%	-0.09	4	-0.10	4	25%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.3	28.5	16.4	23.5	2.2	34.7	129.8
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +59.8%

MIN -2.3%

MIN -13.9%

DAL +5.5%

DAL +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	DAL	NBA	MIN	DAL	NBA
this game	14.8	15.1	15.7	116.7	122.7	100.5
season	15.6	14.6		103.2	109.2
opponent	15.6	16.1		105.0	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.2	16.0	16.9	12.5	14.8
DAL	14.6	14.7	15.1	15.8	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ervin Johnson	0	1	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.03	0	-7	7	0.0	14.8	-14.79	16.0	15.0	0.96
Sam Cassell	85	86	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.28	6	-13	19	14.1	20.2	-6.09	15.3	12.9	2.42
Gary Trent	74	73	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.07	-2	-5	3	14.6	15.5	-0.98	15.5	13.5	2.01
Latrell Sprewell	84	85	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.31	6	-13	19	14.1	19.7	-5.57	15.2	14.2	1.01
Oliver Miller	6	6	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.02	-6	-1	-5	22.2	14.3	7.87	18.5	14.8	3.68
Mark Madsen	19	20	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.15	-4	-3	-1	14.6	14.8	-0.27	13.1	15.6	-2.46
Keith McLeod	8	8	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.03	-12	5	-17	19.6	14.4	5.27	11.9	15.3	-3.46
Kevin Garnett	93	94	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.36	-2	-5	3	14.5	22.7	-8.13	14.9	21.3	-6.48
Fred Hoiberg	47	49	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.21	-8	1	-9	14.6	15.0	-0.34	15.3	14.8	0.51
Trenton Hassell	64	63	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.11	-13	6	-19	16.2	12.1	4.09	14.7	15.7	-0.96

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antawn Jamison	61	59	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.21	14	-7	21	14.9	15.4	-0.54	14.7	15.0	-0.34
Danny Fortson	20	19	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.07	17	-10	27	14.1	15.3	-1.14	20.1	13.5	6.62
Michael Finley	83	83	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.35	2	5	-3	15.6	11.9	3.65	14.9	14.1	0.83
Steve Nash	81	81	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.31	0	7	-7	14.9	15.9	-0.99	14.2	18.0	-3.80
Travis Best	12	12	0.29	0.21	0.07	-0.09	13	-6	19	13.8	15.2	-1.39	19.3	14.1	5.19
Dirk Nowitzki	86	84	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.30	-4	11	-15	15.0	15.1	-0.04	14.0	20.3	-6.33
Antoine Walker	82	82	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.31	-7	14	-21	15.2	14.3	0.93	13.8	20.4	-6.52
Josh Howard	60	60	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.02	0	7	-7	15.1	15.0	0.13	15.4	13.8	1.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.33,0.31,0.41,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.29,0.32,0.41,0.59,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.89,0.96,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 102, GSW 114	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.63,0.59,0.62,0.53,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.52,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.85,0.96,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	93.4%
TOR 97, CHI 104	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.45,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.87,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.2%
UTA 105, DEN 114	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.35,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.58,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.43,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.26,0.35,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.58,0.7,0.85,0.9,0.88,0.92,0.95,1,1,1,1,1,1	92.8%