NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	105		Excitement	6.3 [548]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DEN): +32.4%
Denver Nuggets	114		Comeback	3.2 [570]		LVP	Carlos Boozer (UTA): -19.9%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Deron Williams	0.14	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.19,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.10	0.03	-0.01	15	74%	0.27	5	-0.14	8	100%	0.05
Kyrylo Fesenko	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	0.00	0.03	3	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Price	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Maynor	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Brewer	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.06	-0.02	0.04	9	59%	0.04	1	-0.04	9	78%	0.02
Mehmet Okur	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.05	-0.01	11	57%	0.06	2	-0.07	1	100%	-0.00
Wesley Matthews	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrei Kirilenko	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.04	-0.03	0.05	12	59%	0.03	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.01
Paul Millsap	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	11	45%	0.03	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	-0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.12	-0.04	0.04	14	33%	-0.13	2	-0.06	8	75%	-0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.18,0.25,0.2,0.28,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.15	0.16	-0.02	15	64%	0.36	1	-0.03	9	78%	0.03
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.05	-0.01	13	59%	0.15	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.01	-0.02	22	56%	0.14	2	-0.04	10	70%	-0.02
Joey Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.05	11	67%	0.07	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	4	33%	-0.02	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	0.03	14	50%	-0.01	3	-0.07	4	50%	-0.03
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	6	17%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.1	3.6	33.3	19.7	31.7	3.6	33.7	154.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +20.8%

DEN +10.0%

DEN +5.4%

DEN +13.8%

UTA -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	DEN	NBA	UTA	DEN	NBA
this game	14.6	14.4	15.3	107.1	112.9	106.0
season	15.3	14.4		109.5	110.3
opponent	15.5	15.0		106.4	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	15.0	15.2	13.2	15.0	14.6
DEN	15.0	14.8	13.0	15.0	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyrylo Fesenko	23	24	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.10	5	-14	19	13.7	14.9	-1.21	12.7	14.9	-2.12
Kosta Koufos	1	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-9	9	14.0	14.6	-0.59	15.5	14.3	1.16
Andrei Kirilenko	79	79	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.20	6	-15	21	14.1	16.4	-2.28	15.1	11.8	3.32
Deron Williams	83	86	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.22	4	-13	17	13.9	18.4	-4.51	14.7	12.7	1.92
Wesley Matthews	10	11	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.05	-6	-3	-3	16.9	14.3	2.58	14.0	14.4	-0.41
Carlos Boozer	64	64	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.10	-2	-7	5	14.4	15.0	-0.64	15.4	12.6	2.80
Eric Maynor	6	6	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.10	-8	-1	-7	14.0	14.6	-0.62	14.2	14.4	-0.21
Mehmet Okur	60	63	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.20	-5	-4	-1	14.9	14.0	0.91	15.5	12.4	3.08
Ronnie Brewer	72	74	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.10	-12	3	-15	15.5	11.9	3.62	14.1	15.0	-0.86
Ronnie Price	43	45	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.14	-11	2	-13	14.7	14.5	0.17	13.0	15.5	-2.46
Paul Millsap	49	51	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.07	-16	7	-23	14.9	14.3	0.59	12.4	16.4	-3.95

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Arron Afflalo	47	46	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.22	13	-4	17	14.2	14.5	-0.37	15.4	13.9	1.53
Ty Lawson	54	53	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.20	12	-3	15	13.8	15.0	-1.15	15.1	14.0	1.12
Chris Andersen	50	47	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.09	14	-5	19	13.2	15.5	-2.39	14.8	14.4	0.35
Chauncey Billups	70	67	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.22	2	7	-5	14.7	13.6	1.09	14.1	15.7	-1.65
Kenyon Martin	77	76	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.26	0	9	-9	14.9	12.8	2.07	14.6	14.7	-0.13
Nene	71	69	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.03	7	2	5	14.1	14.9	-0.76	14.6	14.7	-0.10
Joey Graham	15	14	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.06	5	4	1	14.7	14.3	0.35	17.7	14.1	3.65
Carmelo Anthony	82	81	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.22	-7	16	-23	14.9	11.9	3.04	14.0	17.2	-3.14
Anthony Carter	39	37	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.01	-1	10	-11	14.4	14.3	0.07	13.7	15.1	-1.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.35,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.58,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.43,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.26,0.35,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.58,0.7,0.85,0.9,0.88,0.92,0.95,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 97, CHI 104	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.45,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.87,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.8%
OKC 84, BOS 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.43,0.34,0.37,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.28,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.7,0.7,0.86,0.8,0.94,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.1%
HOU 100, POR 105	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.5,0.55,0.51,0.46,0.39,0.3,0.35,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.56,0.52,0.74,0.84,0.75,0.76,0.85,0.86,0.81,0.96,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.96,1	93.1%