NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	100		Excitement	6.1 [602]		MVP	Michael Redd (MIL): +18.0%
Portland Trail Blazers	93		Comeback	1.4 [506]		LVP	Darius Miles (POR): -7.1%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.09	0.08	-0.01	17	59%	0.20	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.02
Bobby Simmons	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.18	0.06	0.12	0.01	12	57%	0.18	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
T.J. Ford	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09	0.01	0.05	-0.03	11	66%	0.25	5	-0.16	7	100%	0.04
Charlie Bell	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	7	81%	0.12	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	7	50%	0.02	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.05
Jiri Welsch	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jermaine Jackson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	1	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Andrew Bogut	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	0.02	10	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.04	0.10	0.00	5	64%	0.13	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Zach Randolph	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.08	0.08	0.04	-0.00	-0.05	19	52%	0.14	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.06
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.01	8	72%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Brian Skinner	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	7	43%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Viktor Khryapa	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Martell Webster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06	-0.06	0.03	-0.07	0.01	11	48%	-0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Juan Dixon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.03,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	11	37%	-0.06	0	0.00	5	100%	0.04
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	12	37%	-0.06	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Darius Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	1.8	28.8	14.8	27.1	1.0	37.2	136.4
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +66.7%

POR -1.1%

POR -8.0%

POR -9.9%

MIL +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	POR	NBA	MIL	POR	NBA
this game	15.5	17.5	15.6	116.3	105.7	104.4
season	15.5	16.6		104.6	99.4
opponent	15.7	15.5		109.8	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	17.5	14.7	14.8	15.4	15.5
POR	19.4	16.6	18.6	15.9	17.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bobby Simmons	70	71	0.77	-0.27	1.03	0.09	23	-16	39	14.3	21.1	-6.85	17.9	15.8	2.12
T.J. Ford	78	80	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.17	17	-10	27	15.0	20.9	-5.87	17.5	17.7	-0.24
Andrew Bogut	63	65	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.33	3	4	-1	16.0	14.2	1.81	17.7	17.0	0.66
Michael Redd	71	73	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.26	4	3	1	15.7	14.9	0.74	16.8	20.9	-4.02
Jamaal Magloire	59	61	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.37	-3	10	-13	16.7	13.0	3.71	18.1	16.2	1.89
Joe Smith	27	26	0.20	0.30	-0.11	-0.04	8	-1	9	13.0	16.7	-3.71	16.8	17.8	-0.98
Dan Gadzuric	15	14	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.03	2	5	-3	15.4	15.6	-0.18	18.7	17.3	1.40
Charlie Bell	35	37	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	13	-19	16.7	14.7	1.97	17.8	17.3	0.52
Jiri Welsch	4	5	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.03	-3	10	-13	18.2	15.4	2.84	10.4	18.0	-7.56
Jermaine Jackson	8	8	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.12	-10	17	-27	20.9	15.0	5.87	17.7	17.5	0.24

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jarrett Jack	31	29	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.12	5	-12	17	16.4	18.2	-1.77	16.3	15.1	1.20
Martell Webster	36	37	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.24	6	-13	19	16.7	18.1	-1.42	15.3	15.8	-0.48
Brian Skinner	23	22	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.07	0	-7	7	17.3	17.6	-0.31	15.2	15.7	-0.49
Travis Outlaw	18	16	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.08	-3	-4	1	16.1	17.9	-1.79	16.1	15.4	0.71
Juan Dixon	44	43	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.26	3	-10	13	17.4	17.7	-0.30	15.3	15.7	-0.40
Darius Miles	27	27	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.06	-5	-2	-3	20.0	16.4	3.61	16.1	15.3	0.82
Zach Randolph	64	63	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.27	2	-9	11	17.2	18.3	-1.04	15.6	15.4	0.15
Sebastian Telfair	42	41	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.02	-10	3	-13	18.5	16.7	1.80	15.4	15.6	-0.21
Viktor Khryapa	32	30	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.06	-14	7	-21	17.4	17.6	-0.20	14.7	16.0	-1.25
Joel Przybilla	64	63	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.23	-7	0	-7	17.8	16.9	0.91	15.8	14.9	0.92
Steve Blake	59	59	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.19	-12	5	-17	17.6	17.4	0.13	15.4	15.9	-0.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.42,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.44,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.3,0.31,0.28,0.25,0.17,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 93, CHI 86	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.41,0.38,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.14,0.15,0.1,0.12,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.08,0	93.2%
CHA 114, NYK 105	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.39,0.41,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.21,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0,0	92.9%
MIN 112, SAC 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.41,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.54,0.63,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.5,0.4,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.35,0.28,0.34,0.24,0.12,0.13,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.07,0,0.04,0,0,0	92.8%