NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	100		Excitement	5.1 [801]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +20.6%
Milwaukee Bucks	93		Comeback	1.0 [631]		LVP	Kenyon Martin (DEN): -13.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.21	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.18	0.03	0.01	20	67%	0.25	1	-0.04	17	71%	0.01
Earl Boykins	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.06	-0.01	14	64%	0.18	3	-0.07	5	60%	0.00
Andre Miller	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.02	0.03	11	64%	0.08	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.02
DerMarr Johnson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	8	50%	0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.02	-0.02	7	31%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Francisco Elson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	-0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.16	-0.01	-0.03	11	36%	-0.03	6	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	8	52%	0.06	2	-0.04	9	56%	-0.02
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	0.01	7	72%	0.09	4	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00
Jermaine Jackson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Redd	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	0.01	0.05	22	51%	0.03	3	-0.06	5	100%	0.02
Bobby Simmons	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	0.03	17	42%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	-0.00
Jiri Welsch	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	5	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.10	0.00	-0.02	13	31%	-0.03	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.01
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	11	41%	-0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	1.8	31.0	16.5	29.0	1.8	36.3	141.4
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +48.0%

MIL -1.8%

MIL -4.3%

DEN +2.6%

DEN +5.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIL	NBA	DEN	MIL	NBA
this game	14.0	15.1	15.6	101.0	93.9	104.4
season	14.4	15.5		103.5	104.6
opponent	15.5	15.9		106.0	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.1	12.3	15.6	16.2	14.0
MIL	17.2	16.0	14.4	12.6	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kenyon Martin	69	67	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.23	11	-4	15	14.5	12.9	1.57	15.7	13.7	1.94
Eduardo Najera	77	77	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.15	13	-6	19	13.5	15.8	-2.30	14.6	16.8	-2.20
Andre Miller	73	75	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.22	10	-3	13	14.1	13.8	0.30	16.0	12.2	3.82
Carmelo Anthony	89	89	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.32	6	1	5	14.1	13.7	0.37	14.9	16.1	-1.16
Earl Boykins	64	63	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.32	-3	10	-13	14.6	12.9	1.68	12.6	19.3	-6.67
Earl Watson	62	62	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.14	3	4	-1	12.9	16.0	-3.15	16.0	13.5	2.56
DerMarr Johnson	14	14	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.06	5	2	3	13.2	14.2	-0.95	15.3	15.0	0.26
Linas Kleiza	6	5	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.00	1	6	-5	12.8	14.1	-1.27	10.8	15.3	-4.49
Francisco Elson	41	43	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	0.17	-11	18	-29	15.3	13.2	2.11	16.2	14.2	1.99

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jermaine Jackson	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-7	7	5.5	15.3	-9.76	2.0	14.3	-12.28
Toni Kukoc	16	16	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.01	-3	-4	1	14.7	15.1	-0.45	13.5	14.1	-0.63
Dan Gadzuric	16	16	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.01	-3	-4	1	14.7	15.1	-0.45	13.5	14.1	-0.63
Jiri Welsch	44	43	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.11	-5	-2	-3	15.8	14.5	1.32	11.4	16.1	-4.70
Mo Williams	56	56	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.26	0	-7	7	13.0	17.7	-4.70	14.1	14.0	0.14
Jamaal Magloire	74	74	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.30	1	-8	9	14.9	15.4	-0.51	14.8	11.8	2.98
T.J. Ford	82	84	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.20	-5	-2	-3	15.3	13.8	1.49	14.4	12.1	2.24
Michael Redd	89	88	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.33	-2	-5	3	15.2	14.0	1.18	14.1	13.5	0.55
Bobby Simmons	63	63	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.28	-4	-3	-1	14.8	15.5	-0.69	15.7	11.2	4.46
Andrew Bogut	53	53	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.03	-14	7	-21	17.1	12.7	4.34	13.3	14.9	-1.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.28,0.23,0.19,0.18,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.15,0.23,0.28,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.03,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 105, BOS 97	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.33,0.28,0.34,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.13,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.26,0.21,0.19,0.16,0.1,0.09,0.04,0.13,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0	95.1%
NYK 86, PHI 75	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.36,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.27,0.22,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.09,0.16,0.18,0.11,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0	95.0%
LAL 106, LAC 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.45,0.37,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.27,0.29,0.33,0.28,0.25,0.26,0.21,0.19,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.16,0.18,0.26,0.25,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.06,0.07,0.17,0.15,0.07,0.03,0.04,0,0,0	94.7%