NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	105		Excitement	5.8 [665]		MVP	Dan Gadzuric (MIL): +18.1%
Milwaukee Bucks	91		Comeback	1.5 [528]		LVP	Ben Gordon (CHI): -8.0%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andres Nocioni	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.08	0.06	-0.00	11	63%	0.18	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.03
Kirk Hinrich	0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.05	-0.03	13	56%	0.13	0	0.00	6	100%	0.05
Chris Duhon	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.08	0.05	10	70%	0.14	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Luol Deng	0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.02	0.01	6	68%	0.11	0	0.00	7	100%	0.03
Othella Harrington	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.03	0.01	8	68%	0.11	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Jannero Pargo	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Randy Holcomb	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Sweetney	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	25%	-0.04	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Darius Songaila	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	11	54%	0.03	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.03
Ben Gordon	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	12	38%	-0.02	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.10	0.09	0.00	5	100%	0.24	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.04	0.00	7	69%	0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Redd	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	-0.01	0.01	17	58%	0.10	1	-0.03	9	78%	0.01
Jermaine Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Simmons	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	11	41%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	30%	0.00	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	13	52%	0.07	5	-0.14	3	100%	0.02
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	0.00	11	37%	-0.03	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Jiri Welsch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	9	33%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	1.8	28.2	17.7	28.0	1.8	27.2	129.6
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +3.0%

CHI +24.5%

CHI +4.0%

CHI +14.3%

CHI +4.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIL	NBA	CHI	MIL	NBA
this game	16.3	16.6	15.6	119.3	104.6	104.4
season	14.4	15.5		102.6	104.6
opponent	15.5	16.1		106.0	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	12.3	18.8	15.3	19.1	16.3
MIL	19.0	15.5	17.5	14.3	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Gordon	44	44	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.05	21	-7	28	14.4	18.2	-3.73	18.4	14.8	3.66
Othella Harrington	67	65	0.64	-0.14	0.78	-0.12	26	-12	38	16.0	17.1	-1.05	17.1	15.1	1.99
Michael Sweetney	20	20	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.10	10	4	6	16.3	16.3	0.07	19.0	15.9	3.15
Andres Nocioni	45	44	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.29	-2	16	-18	17.9	14.6	3.26	16.2	17.0	-0.80
Darius Songaila	64	64	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.11	3	11	-8	16.4	16.1	0.29	15.2	20.7	-5.54
Chris Duhon	59	58	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.17	0	14	-14	18.0	12.9	5.12	15.5	18.9	-3.41
Kirk Hinrich	70	69	0.15	0.35	-0.19	-0.02	6	8	-2	15.9	17.7	-1.72	16.7	16.2	0.50
Luol Deng	65	65	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.16	8	6	2	15.1	19.7	-4.60	16.9	15.8	1.13
Jannero Pargo	3	3	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.02	1	13	-12	18.7	16.2	2.45	9.7	16.9	-7.20
Randy Holcomb	3	3	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.05	-3	17	-20	22.0	16.1	5.91	20.3	16.5	3.85

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jiri Welsch	49	49	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.06	6	-20	26	16.3	17.0	-0.72	17.2	15.2	2.00
Dan Gadzuric	22	23	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.17	6	-20	26	17.3	16.4	0.87	17.3	15.9	1.37
Toni Kukoc	28	29	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.17	0	-14	14	17.1	16.4	0.77	16.2	16.3	-0.13
Michael Redd	75	76	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	0.02	-9	-5	-4	16.9	14.7	2.17	16.1	17.3	-1.20
Jermaine Jackson	16	15	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.08	-6	-8	2	16.1	16.7	-0.68	17.2	16.1	1.09
Jamaal Magloire	55	54	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	0.14	-19	5	-24	16.5	16.9	-0.45	16.0	16.8	-0.81
Mo Williams	78	79	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.09	-13	-1	-12	16.3	19.7	-3.40	16.1	17.7	-1.53
Andrew Bogut	61	61	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.09	-14	0	-14	16.5	16.9	-0.38	15.8	17.3	-1.50
Bobby Simmons	51	54	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	0.04	-21	7	-28	16.9	16.2	0.77	16.1	16.5	-0.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.38,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.44,0.6,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.33,0.32,0.1,0.03,0.09,0.03,0.02,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 87, HOU 74	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.35,0.3,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.26,0.21,0.34,0.4,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.38,0.23,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.05,0,0,0,0	94.5%
UTA 95, IND 84	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.39,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.28,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.27,0.33,0.48,0.42,0.52,0.53,0.29,0.32,0.17,0.12,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	93.5%
POR 116, SEA 111	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.41,0.45,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.41,0.48,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.44,0.52,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.11,0.09,0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0	93.2%