NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	103		Excitement	5.0 [824]		MVP	Josh Howard (DAL): +16.8%
Miami Heat	90		Comeback	1.3 [461]		LVP	Antoine Walker (MIA): -22.2%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Howard	0.17	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.13	0.07	0.04	19	62%	0.17	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.12	0.03	0.03	16	61%	0.13	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.01
Keith Van Horn	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	-0.00	7	57%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.09	-0.01	0.04	9	71%	0.07	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.00
Josh Powell	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.01	-0.03	6	43%	0.02	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jason Terry	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	7	62%	0.05	4	-0.08	2	50%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.02	0.01	10	54%	0.06	6	-0.13	6	100%	0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Posey	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.03	-0.01	5	67%	0.11	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.10	0.01	0.04	8	78%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	8	52%	0.04	0	0.00	9	33%	-0.06
Jason Kapono	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Simien	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	0.07	20	56%	0.01	4	-0.08	3	67%	0.00
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	19	48%	-0.01	5	-0.11	10	90%	0.02
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.19	-0.05	-0.02	13	8%	-0.20	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	3.7	35.5	16.6	26.4	3.5	30.2	141.6
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +56.1%

DAL +1.0%

MIA -5.5%

DAL +0.9%

MIA -2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	MIA	NBA	DAL	MIA	NBA
this game	14.8	16.0	15.6	112.0	94.7	104.4
season	16.4	15.5		109.0	106.1
opponent	15.5	15.6		102.3	102.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	12.8	14.5	17.8	14.7	14.8
MIA	15.4	15.5	19.2	14.7	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marquis Daniels	77	81	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.07	19	-6	25	14.2	18.0	-3.82	16.3	13.9	2.40
Josh Howard	79	78	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.12	15	-2	17	14.7	15.4	-0.68	16.4	13.9	2.55
Jason Terry	60	61	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.10	6	7	-1	14.8	14.9	-0.11	15.3	17.2	-1.96
Erick Dampier	64	64	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.22	1	12	-11	14.7	15.0	-0.33	16.0	15.8	0.21
DeSagana Diop	23	25	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.02	8	5	3	15.7	14.5	1.25	17.5	15.4	2.09
Devin Harris	40	43	0.20	0.30	-0.09	-0.03	8	5	3	15.0	14.7	0.35	15.7	16.2	-0.51
Dirk Nowitzki	78	80	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.14	2	11	-9	14.8	14.6	0.19	15.4	19.3	-3.90
Keith Van Horn	38	41	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.00	6	7	-1	15.4	14.4	1.05	16.4	15.6	0.77
Josh Powell	1	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	13	-13	24.0	14.7	9.30	5.5	16.2	-10.70

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shandon Anderson	10	7	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.02	-1	-12	11	18.8	15.6	3.15	13.3	14.9	-1.64
James Posey	76	77	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.16	1	-14	15	15.4	18.4	-2.99	15.4	11.5	3.91
Jason Kapono	7	6	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.10	-9	-4	-5	17.3	15.9	1.41	10.2	15.1	-4.96
Alonzo Mourning	55	54	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.24	2	-15	17	16.2	15.7	0.44	14.5	15.2	-0.74
Wayne Simien	20	17	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.01	-7	-6	-1	20.0	14.9	5.09	15.0	14.8	0.24
Antoine Walker	43	42	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.10	-11	-2	-9	15.0	16.8	-1.87	15.0	14.6	0.36
Dwyane Wade	76	76	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.21	-2	-11	9	15.4	18.4	-3.05	15.1	13.2	1.88
Jason Williams	82	78	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.04	-10	-3	-7	15.2	20.9	-5.73	14.5	16.4	-1.83
Udonis Haslem	72	71	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.10	-10	-3	-7	15.3	18.0	-2.67	14.9	14.6	0.30
Gary Payton	34	32	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.03	-18	5	-23	19.5	14.0	5.44	14.4	15.0	-0.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.42,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.29,0.25,0.21,0.22,0.2,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.26,0.26,0.28,0.22,0.3,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.28,0.33,0.18,0.26,0.18,0.24,0.38,0.19,0.1,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 105, SAC 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.22,0.23,0.17,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.25,0.3,0.39,0.42,0.32,0.28,0.23,0.19,0.21,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.33,0.27,0.17,0.09,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.8%
CHH 92, DET 86	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.32,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.27,0.21,0.25,0.2,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.23,0.3,0.28,0.27,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.48,0.37,0.33,0.21,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.13,0.15,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0	93.9%
UTA 104, DAL 89	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.45,0.44,0.35,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.23,0.33,0.26,0.23,0.2,0.28,0.33,0.27,0.2,0.19,0.28,0.3,0.42,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.38,0.3,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.38,0.2,0.12,0.08,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.6%