NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	89		Excitement	4.7 [892]		MVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): +8.7%
Orlando Magic	104		Comeback	2.1 [834]		LVP	Zach Randolph (POR): -20.6%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joel Przybilla	0.08	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.11	0.01	0.03	8	75%	0.08	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Jarrett Jack	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.08	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Travis Outlaw	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	3	71%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Juan Dixon	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	3	50%	0.04	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Sebastian Telfair	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.08	-0.01	0.09	15	51%	-0.02	0	0.00	9	78%	-0.00
Martell Webster	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.01	0.03	2	75%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Darius Miles	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	0.03	20	52%	0.03	3	-0.09	4	25%	-0.04
Sergei Monia	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	9	20%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Zach Randolph	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.18	-0.06	-0.03	14	29%	-0.06	5	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.11	0.01	0.04	16	69%	0.12	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	-0.00	12	60%	0.08	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.09	0.01	0.04	10	70%	0.08	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Steve Francis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.03	9	63%	0.08	3	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.03	19	54%	0.05	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.02	5	60%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Stacey Augmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.01	-0.03	6	29%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Kelvin Cato	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	6	50%	0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.6	28.6	16.8	25.2	2.6	28.0	126.1
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +36.5%

POR -5.8%

ORL +8.9%

ORL +8.4%

ORL +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	ORL	NBA	POR	ORL	NBA
this game	16.1	17.4	15.6	104.7	119.5	104.4
season	16.6	16.4		99.4	104.4
opponent	15.7	15.7		105.9	109.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	17.1	15.7	17.7	13.8	16.1
ORL	18.0	14.3	15.0	22.9	17.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Travis Outlaw	34	37	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.22	4	-19	23	15.9	16.2	-0.32	19.6	15.7	3.92
Martell Webster	12	13	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.02	-7	-8	1	14.3	16.4	-2.06	16.3	17.6	-1.25
Sergei Monia	49	48	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.08	-5	-10	5	16.3	15.8	0.47	15.9	19.2	-3.28
Jarrett Jack	22	24	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.02	-9	-6	-3	18.0	15.4	2.62	16.8	17.6	-0.74
Sebastian Telfair	63	63	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.08	-6	-9	3	15.4	18.0	-2.62	17.6	16.8	0.74
Juan Dixon	30	33	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.04	-11	-4	-7	16.8	15.7	1.02	18.5	16.6	1.90
Darius Miles	76	77	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.01	-12	-3	-9	16.2	15.4	0.74	17.2	18.4	-1.17
Joel Przybilla	77	78	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.11	-9	-6	-3	15.8	18.9	-3.06	16.8	22.0	-5.17
Zach Randolph	62	62	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.11	-20	5	-25	16.3	15.5	0.86	17.6	16.8	0.80

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stacey Augmon	33	31	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.02	17	-2	19	15.7	18.4	-2.69	17.0	15.6	1.46
Jameer Nelson	57	55	0.32	0.18	0.13	-0.04	12	3	9	17.0	18.0	-1.02	15.5	17.3	-1.79
Dwight Howard	68	68	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.13	6	9	-3	17.9	15.5	2.42	16.2	15.7	0.50
Steve Francis	59	57	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.00	10	5	5	17.3	17.4	-0.09	15.8	16.7	-0.96
Tony Battie	58	56	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.19	2	13	-11	18.2	15.8	2.36	16.1	16.0	0.11
Kelvin Cato	23	22	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.08	11	4	7	17.6	17.3	0.27	16.2	16.1	0.10
Pat Garrity	24	24	0.19	0.31	-0.13	-0.14	11	4	7	14.5	18.5	-3.96	15.7	16.3	-0.61
Hedo Turkoglu	41	40	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.18	0	15	-15	17.7	17.1	0.64	17.2	15.1	2.07
DeShawn Stevenson	60	60	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.10	1	14	-13	18.4	15.0	3.49	15.6	17.3	-1.72
Keyon Dooling	12	12	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.04	5	10	-5	15.7	17.6	-1.88	17.0	16.0	1.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.68,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.67,0.68,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.84,0.86,0.9,0.89,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.94,0.95,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 87, MIA 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.33,0.36,0.37,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.5,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.7,0.7,0.77,0.83,0.89,0.85,0.9,0.93,0.9,0.86,0.94,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.7%
NJN 89, MIA 101	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.59,0.69,0.72,0.7,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.84,0.82,0.86,0.9,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%
CHI 88, SAC 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.47,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.67,0.7,0.63,0.57,0.66,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.74,0.78,0.88,0.95,0.87,0.92,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.91,0.9,0.98,1,1,1,1	94.4%