NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	87		Excitement	4.3 [593]		MVP	P.J. Brown (MIA): +15.7%
Miami Heat	93		Comeback	2.1 [629]		LVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): -9.9%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shawn Bradley	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.10	-0.00	0.03	10	73%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chris Anstey	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	23	54%	0.08	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.00
Erick Strickland	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
A.C. Green	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	-0.02	0.04	5	64%	-0.02	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Hubert Davis	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	8	37%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	3	12%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Gary Trent	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.02	-0.02	0.05	19	53%	-0.07	1	-0.03	13	69%	-0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16	0.16	0.14	0.05	0.04	12	77%	0.16	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.04	0.01	9	83%	0.17	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	7	37%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	6	60%	0.03	3	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Keith Askins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	7	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	8	37%	-0.04
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	10	40%	-0.04	1	-0.03	5	40%	-0.04
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.02	0.01	21	41%	-0.08	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	2.5	26.2	14.8	24.1	1.7	38.2	132.3
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +40.9%

DAL -8.1%

MIA +8.6%

MIA +7.8%

MIA +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	MIA	NBA	DAL	MIA	NBA
this game	19.0	15.9	15.8	104.8	113.4	99.6
season	15.9	16.6		99.7	101.3
opponent	16.7	15.6		96.8	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	16.8	22.0	19.8	18.0	19.0
MIA	15.1	17.1	18.1	13.9	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	6	6	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.02	-1	-5	4	15.0	19.3	-4.27	18.2	15.7	2.42
Chris Anstey	14	13	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.07	0	-6	6	21.7	18.4	3.31	15.6	16.0	-0.37
Erick Strickland	15	15	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.03	-5	-1	-4	14.9	19.9	-5.00	13.4	16.5	-3.09
A.C. Green	8	8	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.04	-7	1	-8	26.5	18.2	8.34	20.6	15.4	5.21
Samaki Walker	14	12	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.03	-8	2	-10	24.7	17.8	6.92	12.6	16.5	-3.92
Shawn Bradley	55	56	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.23	-3	-3	0	18.5	19.9	-1.46	16.2	15.3	0.96
Gary Trent	69	69	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.33	0	-6	6	18.1	23.2	-5.11	15.9	15.8	0.10
Michael Finley	81	80	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.34	-1	-5	4	18.9	20.5	-1.57	16.1	10.0	6.08
Steve Nash	73	72	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.42	1	-7	8	18.9	19.2	-0.27	16.3	13.2	3.11
Hubert Davis	80	79	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.29	-6	0	-6	18.9	19.7	-0.73	15.6	24.7	-9.07

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
P.J. Brown	60	59	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.24	10	-4	14	15.6	16.9	-1.28	19.1	18.6	0.54
Alonzo Mourning	57	59	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.24	8	-2	10	17.4	12.6	4.73	20.1	16.3	3.76
Tim Hardaway	67	66	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.31	5	1	4	15.5	17.9	-2.46	18.8	19.4	-0.56
Dan Majerle	74	75	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.30	2	4	-2	16.1	13.9	2.27	18.1	26.9	-8.75
Jamal Mashburn	55	57	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.29	1	5	-4	15.1	17.6	-2.48	17.7	21.8	-4.09
Terry Porter	54	56	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.19	4	2	2	16.0	15.9	0.11	19.5	17.8	1.76
Keith Askins	5	5	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.02	2	4	-2	19.2	15.7	3.49	30.2	18.2	11.96
Clar. Weatherspoon	38	38	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.06	-2	8	-10	15.4	16.4	-1.04	18.5	19.4	-0.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.33,0.36,0.37,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.5,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.7,0.7,0.77,0.83,0.89,0.85,0.9,0.93,0.9,0.86,0.94,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 89, ORL 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.68,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.67,0.68,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.84,0.86,0.9,0.89,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.94,0.95,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%
DAL 102, DET 115	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.49,0.37,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.79,0.77,0.84,0.82,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%
NJN 71, MIN 82	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.28,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.35,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.51,0.59,0.64,0.69,0.72,0.64,0.59,0.51,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.73,0.81,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.76,0.88,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,1,1,0.99,0.98,0.99,1	94.8%