NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	117		Excitement	5.8 [699]		MVP	Baron Davis (GSW): +27.0%
Golden State Warriors	122		Comeback	1.0 [1178]		LVP	David Wesley (HOU): -11.7%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Yao Ming	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.02	12	74%	0.14	2	-0.05	7	100%	0.04
Bob Sura	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	11	68%	0.12	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0.05	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	0.04	0.06	34	59%	0.14	5	-0.10	6	100%	0.02
Mike James	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.04	0.05	10	59%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.00	2	100%	0.08	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Ryan Bowen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scott Padgett	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	4	37%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
David Wesley	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	13	30%	-0.08	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Baron Davis	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.13	0.07	-0.06	20	71%	0.32	3	-0.05	16	94%	0.06
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.02	5	83%	0.08	3	-0.02	8	100%	0.03
Zarko Cabarkapa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.09	-0.04	0.00	4	100%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.01	5	60%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	12	60%	0.07	1	-0.02	1	100%	-0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.05	-0.01	10	41%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	16	53%	0.06	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.03
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	0.03	-0.02	7	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.03
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	0.8	29.5	16.8	24.3	2.8	34.3	130.6
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +27.5%

HOU -3.7%

HOU -1.4%

GSW +19.9%

GSW +7.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	GSW	NBA	HOU	GSW	NBA
this game	15.4	13.9	15.5	119.4	123.2	104.0
season	16.0	15.0		104.2	102.3
opponent	15.2	15.8		104.7	100.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	17.1	15.3	15.2	13.9	15.4
GSW	12.9	14.7	14.8	13.3	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Bowen	9	9	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.11	-4	-1	-3	13.6	15.5	-1.98	11.4	14.1	-2.69
Dikembe Mutombo	21	19	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.06	-9	4	-13	17.2	14.8	2.39	14.1	13.8	0.20
Clar. Weatherspoon	36	38	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.04	-6	1	-7	17.2	14.3	2.95	13.6	14.1	-0.55
Scott Padgett	53	53	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.31	2	-7	9	14.4	16.5	-2.09	14.3	13.4	0.93
Mike James	52	52	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.37	3	-8	11	14.7	16.1	-1.38	14.1	13.7	0.36
Yao Ming	77	79	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.47	6	-11	17	14.8	17.2	-2.39	14.0	13.4	0.55
Bob Sura	68	71	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.14	-7	2	-9	16.7	12.4	4.31	14.3	12.9	1.44
Tracy McGrady	87	88	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.32	-2	-3	1	15.2	16.6	-1.44	13.7	15.2	-1.45
David Wesley	87	86	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.29	-8	3	-11	14.9	19.2	-4.31	13.6	15.7	-2.08

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derek Fisher	52	54	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.24	12	-7	19	13.2	14.7	-1.47	15.4	15.3	0.07
Zarko Cabarkapa	38	39	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.09	9	-4	13	14.9	13.3	1.63	14.9	15.6	-0.72
Adonal Foyle	55	56	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.40	-4	9	-13	13.9	13.9	-0.04	15.6	15.0	0.58
Mike Dunleavy	75	74	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.18	3	2	1	13.9	13.8	0.13	15.9	13.7	2.13
Mickael Pietrus	27	29	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.27	0	5	-5	13.6	14.0	-0.46	16.0	15.1	0.96
Baron Davis	81	79	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.14	4	1	3	13.9	13.9	0.00	14.8	17.5	-2.69
Andris Biedrins	20	19	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.09	3	2	1	15.1	13.6	1.58	17.2	14.9	2.30
Jason Richardson	82	78	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.27	-4	9	-13	13.6	15.4	-1.84	14.4	18.9	-4.51
Troy Murphy	65	62	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.09	2	3	-1	14.0	13.7	0.28	15.7	14.8	0.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.67,0.71,0.78,0.72,0.68,0.66,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.64,0.71,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.7,0.66,0.7,0.87,0.88,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.97,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 94, DAL 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.69,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.72,0.71,0.64,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.73,0.63,0.56,0.64,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.9,0.96,0.94,0.91,0.9,0.98,1,1,1,1	94.1%
PHI 86, POR 96	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.71,0.63,0.71,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.56,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.71,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.72,0.7,0.78,0.88,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.9%
PHX 73, TOR 83	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.5,0.44,0.47,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.68,0.72,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.72,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.55,0.45,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.67,0.6,0.62,0.52,0.67,0.76,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.8%