NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	92		Excitement	7.1 [429]		MVP	Joe Smith (MIL): +20.7%
Milwaukee Bucks	99		Comeback	1.1 [1067]		LVP	Luol Deng (CHI): -23.0%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Othella Harrington	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.05	0.01	5	100%	0.14	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Antonio Davis	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.02	-0.00	8	75%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.11,0.13,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.08,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	16	53%	0.12	2	-0.11	4	75%	0.01
Eric Piatkowski	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.07	-0.07	0.02	14	58%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Chris Duhon	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	4	33%	-0.02	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	6	33%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eddy Curry	-0.13	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13	-0.04	-0.06	0.03	12	50%	-0.09	2	-0.04	6	83%	-0.01
Andres Nocioni	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.11	-0.05	-0.01	3	0%	-0.09	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.23,-0.23	-0.13	-0.09	0.01	10	41%	-0.05	5	-0.18	2	100%	0.02

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.21	0.21	0.11	0.12	0.02	12	75%	0.24	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Michael Redd	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.08	0.05	27	63%	0.22	4	-0.12	8	100%	0.03
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.05	-0.01	8	37%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.09	0.05	-0.02	12	46%	0.06	4	-0.09	4	75%	-0.01
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.02	0.00	10	48%	0.01	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Marcus Fizer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kendall Gill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	3	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.03	-0.01	6	21%	-0.08	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.4	27.2	15.4	25.6	2.3	33.3	131.6
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +42.7%

CHI -8.3%

CHI -1.1%

MIL +13.8%

MIL +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIL	NBA	CHI	MIL	NBA
this game	15.4	16.1	15.5	100.0	108.8	104.0
season	15.1	16.0		100.1	104.4
opponent	15.0	15.4		107.4	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.4	14.6	17.4	15.3	15.4
MIL	14.4	17.5	15.4	17.4	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Othella Harrington	29	29	0.23	-0.73	0.96	-0.09	11	-18	29	16.0	15.1	0.90	17.4	15.5	1.88
Luol Deng	59	59	0.17	-0.67	0.83	-0.16	11	-18	29	15.1	15.9	-0.78	16.0	16.3	-0.28
Antonio Davis	55	55	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.15	6	-13	19	15.7	14.9	0.77	16.5	15.4	1.13
Kirk Hinrich	71	71	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.32	8	-15	23	15.8	14.0	1.79	16.8	13.7	3.07
Chris Duhon	44	43	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.01	-5	-2	-3	15.5	15.2	0.27	15.9	16.2	-0.32
Eric Piatkowski	15	13	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.12	-12	5	-17	13.0	15.8	-2.84	10.8	17.0	-6.13
Tyson Chandler	48	47	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.23	-8	1	-9	16.0	14.7	1.38	16.3	15.9	0.46
Ben Gordon	56	57	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.35	-6	-1	-5	15.2	15.7	-0.52	16.0	16.2	-0.17
Andres Nocioni	33	32	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.14	-18	11	-29	15.9	15.1	0.78	16.3	16.0	0.28
Eddy Curry	50	49	-0.78	0.28	-1.07	-0.14	-22	15	-37	14.3	16.7	-2.41	15.3	17.1	-1.81

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Smith	60	62	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.28	11	-4	15	16.1	16.2	-0.09	15.6	14.9	0.71
Michael Redd	76	77	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.26	11	-4	15	15.6	18.6	-2.99	15.3	15.9	-0.66
Zaza Pachulia	68	69	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.18	10	-3	13	16.0	16.4	-0.45	15.3	15.6	-0.30
Desmond Mason	83	84	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.24	5	2	3	16.1	16.2	-0.17	15.2	17.6	-2.46
Mike James	44	44	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.34	-1	8	-9	16.9	15.3	1.61	15.6	15.2	0.40
Mo Williams	49	50	0.20	0.30	-0.11	-0.07	9	-2	11	14.7	17.7	-3.00	15.0	15.9	-0.92
Kendall Gill	23	23	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.09	-2	9	-11	17.8	15.5	2.25	16.5	15.0	1.52
Dan Gadzuric	23	23	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.11	-3	10	-13	16.4	16.0	0.45	15.6	15.3	0.30
Marcus Fizer	29	28	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.04	-5	12	-17	17.2	15.6	1.68	15.3	15.4	-0.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.57,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.76,0.82,0.85,0.85,0.8,0.82,0.77,0.69,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.75,0.71,0.74,0.8,0.78,0.74,0.74,0.71,0.62,0.73,0.63,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.67,0.58,0.59,0.53,0.61,0.62,0.85,0.9,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 85, ATL 88	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.67,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.78,0.75,0.83,0.8,0.76,0.75,0.73,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.77,0.71,0.69,0.76,0.77,0.84,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.53,0.67,0.73,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.69,0.93,0.96,0.92,1	91.6%
CHA 81, OKC 84	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.64,0.56,0.55,0.58,0.66,0.7,0.66,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.78,0.82,0.75,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.89,0.81,0.84,0.84,0.75,0.75,0.8,0.74,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.4,0.61,0.74,0.9,0.94,0.92,1	91.5%
CHI 92, IND 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.68,0.73,0.72,0.74,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.73,0.65,0.68,0.75,0.8,0.78,0.71,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.71,0.68,0.53,0.59,0.72,0.62,0.85,0.84,0.83,1	91.4%