NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	85		Excitement	7.3 [375]		MVP	Jamal Crawford (ATL): +19.2%
Atlanta Hawks	88		Comeback	1.2 [653]		LVP	Hedo Turkoglu (ORL): -37.7%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gilbert Arenas	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.14	0.06	0.09	0.00	18	54%	0.18	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Brandon Bass	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	6	69%	0.06	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Dwight Howard	0.05	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,0,0.03,0.05,0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.03,0.08,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	14	66%	0.33	8	-0.28	16	69%	-0.07
Quentin Richardson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.01	5	70%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	6	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jameer Nelson	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	12	25%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	6	14%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.38	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.23,-0.23,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.38	-0.18	-0.20	0.00	12	21%	-0.26	3	-0.12	4	50%	-0.02

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19	0.19	0.10	0.09	-0.01	18	60%	0.22	1	-0.02	6	33%	-0.08
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.00	0.00	11	64%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.23,-0.23,-0.11,-0.12,-0.11,0.03	0.03	-0.07	0.11	0.01	15	53%	0.18	6	-0.16	8	87%	0.11
Josh Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	15	44%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Hilton Armstrong	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Collins	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.04	-0.00	10	37%	0.01	2	-0.04	4	25%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.8	32.2	18.4	27.1	2.8	46.0	155.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +32.2%

ATL +6.4%

ATL +5.9%

ATL +7.2%

ORL -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	ATL	NBA	ORL	ATL	NBA
this game	14.4	16.7	15.5	90.4	96.7	105.7
season	15.2	16.5		106.3	104.0
opponent	15.5	16.2		105.1	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.1	12.6	17.1	14.5	14.4
ATL	13.1	16.9	18.9	19.1	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Anderson	53	48	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.20	2	-5	7	13.2	16.0	-2.75	16.2	17.4	-1.18
Dwight Howard	79	79	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.40	6	-9	15	14.8	12.3	2.49	17.3	12.9	4.41
Quentin Richardson	52	53	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.14	-4	1	-5	15.2	13.4	1.85	17.9	15.1	2.77
JJ Redick	46	44	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.07	-7	4	-11	13.7	15.1	-1.43	16.3	17.1	-0.83
Gilbert Arenas	45	43	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.39	3	-6	9	13.2	15.6	-2.35	16.9	16.6	0.30
Hedo Turkoglu	77	73	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.41	3	-6	9	14.7	13.1	1.60	16.5	17.9	-1.49
Jameer Nelson	74	71	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.39	-1	-2	1	14.7	13.3	1.43	16.7	16.8	-0.07
Brandon Bass	44	44	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.07	-17	14	-31	15.2	13.8	1.42	15.7	17.7	-2.02

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Horford	77	79	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.40	5	-2	7	16.7	16.8	-0.05	15.4	9.2	6.22
Jamal Crawford	62	65	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.36	5	-2	7	17.1	16.0	1.10	13.6	16.2	-2.53
Joe Johnson	58	61	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.42	2	1	1	16.9	16.4	0.51	16.3	10.9	5.42
Kirk Hinrich	81	82	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.43	-1	4	-5	17.1	13.5	3.65	13.8	18.7	-4.86
Marvin Williams	33	35	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.01	10	-7	17	15.7	17.3	-1.65	12.1	15.8	-3.64
Jason Collins	36	35	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.23	-2	5	-7	15.9	17.3	-1.37	15.1	14.0	1.14
Josh Smith	71	75	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.20	-3	6	-9	16.2	18.7	-2.50	14.8	13.1	1.72
Josh Powell	23	23	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.02	2	1	1	17.6	16.5	1.15	11.3	15.4	-4.13
Hilton Armstrong	14	15	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.00	-3	6	-9	18.1	16.5	1.65	14.9	14.3	0.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.67,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.78,0.75,0.83,0.8,0.76,0.75,0.73,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.77,0.71,0.69,0.76,0.77,0.84,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.53,0.67,0.73,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.69,0.93,0.96,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 81, OKC 84	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.64,0.56,0.55,0.58,0.66,0.7,0.66,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.78,0.82,0.75,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.89,0.81,0.84,0.84,0.75,0.75,0.8,0.74,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.4,0.61,0.74,0.9,0.94,0.92,1	93.6%
DAL 107, IND 111	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.69,0.63,0.68,0.82,0.81,0.69,0.74,0.7,0.61,0.66,0.74,0.75,0.75,0.75,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.74,0.72,0.79,0.77,0.77,0.78,0.54,0.62,0.52,0.71,0.77,0.63,0.59,0.6,0.81,0.85,0.78,0.92,1	93.5%
MIA 99, PHI 104	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.7,0.72,0.74,0.76,0.75,0.81,0.87,0.82,0.79,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.86,0.8,0.78,0.73,0.79,0.81,0.86,0.77,0.71,0.75,0.66,0.62,0.71,0.67,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.72,0.85,0.9,0.95,0.99,1	93.1%