NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	111		Excitement	6.7 [523]		MVP	Mickael Pietrus (GSW): +12.1%
Dallas Mavericks	107		Comeback	1.1 [569]		LVP	Darrell Armstrong (DAL): -13.1%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mickael Pietrus	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.05	-0.02	10	77%	0.21	3	-0.09	6	67%	0.01
Clifford Robinson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.08	0.12	-0.01	0.03	14	76%	0.11	2	-0.03	5	80%	-0.01
Jason Richardson	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.06	-0.01	0.05	-0.02	14	50%	0.10	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.01	-0.04	3	62%	0.05	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Troy Murphy	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	16	56%	0.08	3	-0.07	4	75%	0.02
Ansu Sesay	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Speedy Claxton	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	15	53%	0.09	3	-0.11	4	100%	0.02
Mike Dunleavy	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.09	0.01	-0.03	11	32%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.13	-0.03	0.02	20	63%	0.07	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Michael Finley	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,0.08,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.05,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	21	55%	0.13	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.03	-0.00	3	60%	0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Alan Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	3	67%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Calvin Booth	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	1	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	13	39%	-0.06	0	0.00	7	100%	0.05
Josh Howard	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	10	50%	0.01	4	-0.10	4	100%	0.02
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	5	43%	-0.05	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.03
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.01,-0.13	-0.13	-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	10	32%	-0.13	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.0	1.7	34.1	19.7	25.8	1.5	35.4	140.2
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +64.3%

DAL -11.0%

GSW +13.2%

DAL -16.4%

DAL -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DAL	NBA	GSW	DAL	NBA
this game	14.8	14.6	15.5	112.1	110.3	104.0
season	15.0	14.9		102.3	108.2
opponent	15.5	15.2		103.4	104.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.9	16.1	14.7	14.7	14.8
DAL	16.1	15.9	13.0	13.6	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Clifford Robinson	77	76	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.22	10	-6	16	14.7	15.3	-0.66	15.2	12.1	3.11
Speedy Claxton	77	77	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.22	9	-5	14	14.7	15.3	-0.66	15.4	11.5	3.88
Troy Murphy	75	75	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.27	7	-3	10	15.2	13.5	1.73	13.9	17.0	-3.07
Mike Dunleavy	88	88	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.28	6	-2	8	14.3	19.2	-4.92	14.0	20.4	-6.47
Jason Richardson	75	76	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.18	8	-4	12	15.3	13.3	2.00	16.0	9.4	6.57
Ansu Sesay	2	0	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.05	0	4	-4	3.5	15.0	-11.54	0.0	14.6	-14.58
Eduardo Najera	19	17	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.16	-4	8	-12	13.8	15.0	-1.26	13.2	14.9	-1.63
Mickael Pietrus	45	43	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.38	-12	16	-28	15.0	14.7	0.31	13.3	15.6	-2.29
Adonal Foyle	11	10	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.05	-1	5	-6	18.0	14.4	3.59	14.6	14.6	0.03
Calbert Cheaney	26	23	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.10	-3	7	-10	14.9	14.8	0.10	12.9	15.1	-2.18

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Terry	25	25	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.25	12	-16	28	16.4	13.9	2.51	17.7	13.8	3.84
Shawn Bradley	21	22	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.33	11	-15	26	14.2	14.7	-0.49	17.3	14.1	3.17
Calvin Booth	10	10	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.05	1	-5	6	18.2	14.2	4.04	14.9	14.8	0.10
Erick Dampier	15	15	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.00	-2	-2	0	13.8	14.7	-0.92	16.4	14.5	1.88
Marquis Daniels	37	38	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.10	-2	-2	0	16.6	13.3	3.30	15.4	14.5	0.91
Alan Henderson	20	22	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.04	-8	4	-12	17.4	13.8	3.56	13.6	15.2	-1.56
Jerry Stackhouse	68	69	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.44	6	-10	16	13.5	17.2	-3.70	15.6	13.1	2.50
Josh Howard	72	72	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.11	-8	4	-12	14.7	14.2	0.45	14.2	16.5	-2.30
Darrell Armstrong	48	49	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.09	-11	7	-18	12.5	16.6	-4.11	13.1	16.4	-3.30
Michael Finley	85	86	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.30	-5	1	-6	14.5	15.2	-0.67	14.3	18.5	-4.21
Dirk Nowitzki	84	87	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.29	-14	10	-24	14.3	16.2	-1.91	14.5	16.7	-2.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.4,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.32,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.32,0.33,0.35,0.24,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.34,0.35,0.28,0.15,0.16,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.19,0.18,0.1,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.23,0.17,0.11,0.22,0.14,0.16,0.23,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 95, HOU 88	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.35,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.26,0.33,0.3,0.22,0.31,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.14,0.06,0.12,0.14,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.31,0.08,0	92.8%
CHI 94, TOR 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.31,0.31,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.22,0.23,0.27,0.34,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.12,0.18,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.18,0.19,0.13,0.21,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.04,0.28,0	92.8%
IND 113, PHX 110	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.21,0.23,0.31,0.24,0.27,0.34,0.25,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.28,0.15,0.17,0.1,0.13,0.09,0.16,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.17,0.24,0.23,0.04,0.07,0.17,0.15,0.16,0.1,0.27,0	92.8%