NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	94		Excitement	6.4 [536]		MVP	Kirk Hinrich (CHI): +19.1%
Toronto Raptors	92		Comeback	1.1 [608]		LVP	DeMar DeRozan (TOR): -40.4%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kirk Hinrich	0.19	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19	0.11	0.09	0.01	11	86%	0.26	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.08	0.04	-0.02	13	61%	0.16	1	-0.01	7	86%	0.02
D.J. Augustin	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,0,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.04	0.09	-0.00	15	61%	0.22	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.00	8	56%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Nazr Mohammed	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,-0.01	0.06	-0.03	0.04	11	57%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Tony Snell	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	7	44%	0.02	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.01
Mike Dunleavy	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.14	-0.01	-0.01	6	17%	-0.07	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.13	0.13	0.01	0.12	-0.00	6	60%	0.17	2	-0.04	3	33%	0.00
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.03	9	47%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.05	0.02	13	48%	0.06	2	-0.05	7	100%	0.03
Tyler Hansbrough	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	7	53%	0.02	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Steve Novak	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Julyan Stone	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	6	42%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greivis Vasquez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	8	44%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.4	-0.40	0.04	-0.39	0.05	25	52%	-0.35	2	-0.05	11	91%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.8	1.7	30.3	15.5	28.4	1.8	40.0	144.5
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +88.1%

TOR -17.1%

CHI +8.9%

TOR -31.6%

CHI +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	TOR	NBA	CHI	TOR	NBA
this game	17.2	16.1	15.1	108.0	107.0	105.2
season	16.3	15.9		101.1	107.2
opponent	15.1	15.3		104.2	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	16.1	15.1	16.2	21.6	17.2
TOR	16.6	18.5	15.1	14.3	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Dunleavy	71	70	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.39	8	-6	14	16.8	18.6	-1.79	15.5	18.7	-3.22
Jimmy Butler	83	82	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.41	7	-5	12	17.1	18.7	-1.67	16.3	12.0	4.33
Joakim Noah	67	66	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.39	5	-3	8	17.6	15.5	2.09	15.7	17.4	-1.72
Carlos Boozer	55	53	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.15	12	-10	22	15.4	20.2	-4.74	16.0	16.3	-0.23
Kirk Hinrich	52	51	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.26	7	-5	12	16.6	17.9	-1.31	15.8	16.6	-0.80
Tony Snell	10	11	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.13	-1	3	-4	16.1	17.3	-1.20	19.3	15.7	3.61
Nazr Mohammed	6	6	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	2	-2	16.7	17.2	-0.53	26.3	15.4	10.97
Taj Gibson	46	46	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.27	-13	15	-28	18.6	15.5	3.07	15.8	16.5	-0.74
D.J. Augustin	45	45	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.21	-15	17	-32	18.7	15.5	3.12	16.0	16.3	-0.31

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Julyan Stone	0	1	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-2	2	0.0	16.1	-16.13	0.0	17.4	-17.36
Steve Novak	1	0	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.07	0	-2	2	2.0	16.3	-14.29	0.0	17.2	-17.16
Terrence Ross	48	47	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.03	-4	2	-6	15.4	17.0	-1.56	17.1	17.2	-0.07
Tyler Hansbrough	42	44	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.38	9	-11	20	16.4	15.8	0.59	18.7	15.6	3.08
Kyle Lowry	62	64	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.40	9	-11	20	15.1	18.9	-3.81	17.5	16.1	1.46
Amir Johnson	48	47	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.51	12	-14	26	15.4	17.1	-1.66	18.3	15.9	2.38
Patrick Patterson	40	41	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.04	-12	10	-22	16.9	15.5	1.44	15.9	18.3	-2.38
Jonas Valanciunas	41	42	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.03	-13	11	-24	16.3	16.0	0.27	15.6	18.6	-3.07
DeMar DeRozan	76	75	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.38	0	-2	2	16.2	15.3	0.94	17.8	13.3	4.44
Greivis Vasquez	30	30	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.12	-10	8	-18	18.5	14.9	3.59	16.1	17.7	-1.67
John Salmons	42	44	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.46	-1	-1	0	16.6	15.7	0.96	16.7	17.6	-0.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.31,0.31,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.22,0.23,0.27,0.34,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.12,0.18,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.18,0.19,0.13,0.21,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.04,0.28,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 113, PHX 110	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.21,0.23,0.31,0.24,0.27,0.34,0.25,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.28,0.15,0.17,0.1,0.13,0.09,0.16,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.17,0.24,0.23,0.04,0.07,0.17,0.15,0.16,0.1,0.27,0	93.9%
IND 110, WAS 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.35,0.31,0.28,0.25,0.24,0.29,0.23,0.28,0.31,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.22,0.25,0.33,0.34,0.33,0.25,0.2,0.25,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.12,0.26,0.2,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.11,0.12,0.26,0.19,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.09,0	93.0%
MIL 89, DET 87	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.35,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.26,0.23,0.19,0.26,0.3,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.27,0.26,0.14,0.13,0.22,0.27,0.29,0.22,0.09,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.17,0.27,0.13,0.12,0.13,0.29,0.22,0.09,0.1,0	93.0%