NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	106		Excitement	9.0 [144]		MVP	Speedy Claxton (GSW): +9.4%
Golden State Warriors	110		Comeback	2.1 [841]		LVP	Mark Blount (BOS): -26.6%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Allen	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.04	-0.00	3	75%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Al Jefferson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Raef LaFrentz	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.00	8	56%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jiri Welsch	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.04	-0.07	0.02	14	65%	0.03	2	-0.07	9	44%	-0.13
Paul Pierce	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,-0.04	0.08	-0.12	-0.00	16	67%	0.01	2	-0.05	7	100%	0.09
Gary Payton	-0.08	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	11	46%	-0.03	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.04
Marcus Banks	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	3	29%	-0.05	3	-0.06	1	0%	-0.01
Ricky Davis	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.13,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.16	-0.01	-0.04	13	31%	-0.05	3	-0.09	6	83%	0.03
Mark Blount	-0.27	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.14	-0.12	0.01	9	50%	-0.02	7	-0.25	2	100%	0.01

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Speedy Claxton	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.06	0.01	8	65%	0.09	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.03	-0.01	20	59%	0.14	1	-0.05	11	91%	0.02
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.07	0.07	-0.02	0.09	-0.00	8	54%	0.10	1	-0.04	8	62%	-0.03
Ansu Sesay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.02	0.00	3	83%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.00	0.06	-0.01	7	62%	0.10	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.02	-0.02	2	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.03	0.01	10	45%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dale Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	3	37%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Richardson	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.18,-0.16	-0.16	-0.13	-0.03	-0.00	19	40%	-0.08	4	-0.09	4	50%	-0.02
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.23	-0.23	-0.04	-0.18	0.01	9	44%	-0.02	2	-0.21	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	2.3	31.4	16.5	24.7	2.0	41.0	140.5
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +45.8%

BOS -20.6%

BOS -9.5%

GSW +18.3%

GSW +16.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	GSW	NBA	BOS	GSW	NBA
this game	12.7	14.9	15.5	101.0	105.8	104.0
season	14.4	15.0		104.7	102.3
opponent	15.2	16.0		104.7	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	12.1	13.1	14.0	11.7	12.7
GSW	15.1	13.1	16.7	15.0	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Jefferson	35	32	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.02	-5	1	-6	12.2	13.0	-0.76	15.4	14.6	0.83
Raef LaFrentz	68	69	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.16	1	-5	6	13.5	11.3	2.13	14.5	15.6	-1.06
Marcus Banks	36	36	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.11	-2	-2	0	10.7	13.7	-2.97	14.4	15.1	-0.69
Tony Allen	35	33	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.14	-3	-1	-2	10.9	13.6	-2.69	15.0	14.8	0.24
Jiri Welsch	72	71	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.29	1	-5	6	13.3	11.5	1.78	15.3	13.9	1.40
Mark Blount	64	64	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.09	-7	3	-10	13.6	11.3	2.28	14.7	15.2	-0.54
Gary Payton	79	78	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.40	3	-7	10	13.0	11.8	1.24	14.8	15.2	-0.38
Paul Pierce	67	69	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.51	2	-6	8	12.3	13.5	-1.25	15.0	14.5	0.53
Ricky Davis	69	68	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.25	-10	6	-16	12.8	12.5	0.35	14.8	15.0	-0.25

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derek Fisher	57	56	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.20	13	-9	22	14.8	14.9	-0.05	12.1	13.4	-1.28
Calbert Cheaney	61	60	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.33	3	1	2	15.3	14.2	1.08	12.3	13.2	-0.91
Jason Richardson	83	84	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.37	0	4	-4	15.3	13.2	2.10	12.9	11.8	1.12
Speedy Claxton	66	66	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.47	-5	9	-14	15.0	14.6	0.45	12.6	12.8	-0.18
Troy Murphy	73	74	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.31	-4	8	-12	14.7	15.2	-0.47	13.2	11.5	1.73
Dale Davis	36	38	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.03	7	-3	10	14.9	14.8	0.08	12.4	12.9	-0.53
Mickael Pietrus	23	24	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.03	4	0	4	12.7	15.5	-2.73	12.3	12.8	-0.48
Mike Dunleavy	36	38	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.15	-1	5	-6	15.2	14.7	0.50	13.4	12.3	1.08
Eduardo Najera	11	10	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.14	8	-4	12	14.5	14.9	-0.36	14.8	12.5	2.32
Ansu Sesay	13	14	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.07	4	0	4	13.8	15.0	-1.25	12.7	12.7	0.01
Clifford Robinson	61	61	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.28	-9	13	-22	14.7	15.1	-0.35	12.4	13.2	-0.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.35,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.41,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.63,0.69,0.76,0.73,0.83,0.79,0.92,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 91, MIA 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.66,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.69,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.63,0.91,0.84,1	93.3%
MEM 128, WAS 135	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.46,0.4,0.34,0.29,0.38,0.33,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.68,0.63,0.76,0.87,0.86,0.85,0.97,0.91,1	93.0%
CHA 92, PHI 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.26,0.25,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.63,0.57,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.65,0.73,0.89,0.78,0.95,0.96,1	92.6%