NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	98		Excitement	5.7 [717]		MVP	Damon Stoudamire (POR): +5.3%
Portland Trail Blazers	110		Comeback	4.4 [560]		LVP	Mike James (MIL): -11.9%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.07	-0.02	0.04	20	66%	0.08	4	-0.08	4	75%	-0.01
Marcus Fizer	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	62%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Joe Smith	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	13	48%	-0.00	1	-0.02	1	100%	-0.00
Desmond Mason	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	22	45%	0.01	1	-0.04	5	80%	0.02
Erick Strickland	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	1	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Dan Gadzuric	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	7	41%	-0.03	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.02
Keith Van Horn	-0.06	0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	11	45%	-0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.05	-0.04	5	43%	-0.02	4	-0.10	4	50%	-0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.09	0.01	0.05	21	65%	0.13	3	-0.07	9	100%	0.04
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darius Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	7	57%	0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.01	-0.03	12	65%	0.10	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Travis Outlaw	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Anderson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	10	58%	0.09	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.00
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.02	-0.01	6	69%	0.04	5	-0.07	4	75%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.15,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.14	-0.02	-0.05	18	44%	-0.00	3	-0.10	14	86%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	1.0	30.8	14.8	30.2	1.6	36.0	137.8
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +30.6%

POR +18.3%

POR +13.9%

MIL -10.7%

MIL -2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	POR	NBA	MIL	POR	NBA
this game	15.9	14.5	15.5	103.2	117.0	104.0
season	16.0	15.8		104.4	101.2
opponent	15.6	15.0		105.4	107.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	17.5	16.0	16.8	13.7	15.9
POR	16.8	15.3	12.7	14.0	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Erick Strickland	10	11	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.03	3	-15	18	19.0	15.6	3.44	14.0	14.6	-0.61
Dan Gadzuric	58	56	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.08	-3	-9	6	16.6	14.8	1.83	16.1	12.3	3.78
Mo Williams	46	43	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.04	-3	-9	6	15.8	16.0	-0.15	16.6	12.8	3.72
Michael Redd	75	73	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.13	-4	-8	4	14.7	20.5	-5.79	14.9	13.4	1.50
Marcus Fizer	31	32	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.13	-4	-8	4	18.0	14.9	3.08	13.6	15.0	-1.39
Keith Van Horn	68	66	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.03	-13	1	-14	15.2	17.8	-2.59	14.8	13.9	0.93
Joe Smith	70	70	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.20	-8	-4	-4	15.9	15.9	0.06	14.4	14.8	-0.39
Mike James	49	51	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.19	-9	-3	-6	16.0	15.8	0.15	12.8	16.6	-3.72
Desmond Mason	68	68	-0.70	0.20	-0.91	-0.15	-19	7	-26	16.0	15.8	0.21	13.3	17.8	-4.57

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damon Stoudamire	84	86	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.12	17	-5	22	14.6	14.3	0.27	15.7	18.2	-2.54
Darius Miles	54	54	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.19	14	-2	16	12.8	16.9	-4.15	16.1	15.7	0.34
Zach Randolph	83	84	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.11	12	0	12	14.7	13.2	1.54	15.5	19.0	-3.48
Derek Anderson	83	83	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.18	9	3	6	14.8	12.6	2.16	16.1	15.0	1.06
Ruben Patterson	45	46	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.11	7	5	2	12.8	16.1	-3.26	14.9	16.9	-2.05
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	57	58	0.19	0.31	-0.11	-0.07	9	3	6	15.7	12.7	3.03	17.0	14.3	2.67
Joel Przybilla	4	4	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.05	0	12	-12	17.0	14.4	2.57	18.2	15.8	2.43
Nick Van Exel	21	21	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.00	-2	14	-16	13.4	14.9	-1.43	16.4	15.8	0.58
Travis Outlaw	1	1	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.00	-2	14	-16	9.0	14.6	-5.60	20.0	15.9	4.12
Theo Ratliff	38	38	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.05	-4	16	-20	16.8	13.0	3.73	15.9	15.9	0.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.53,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.54,0.63,0.66,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.4,0.37,0.27,0.3,0.19,0.29,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.63,0.64,0.74,0.74,0.78,0.86,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 91, MEM 110	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.42,0.49,0.37,0.29,0.23,0.25,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.45,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.72,0.78,0.85,0.85,0.86,0.94,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.5%
WAS 88, ATL 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.41,0.47,0.49,0.57,0.58,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.48,0.44,0.34,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.31,0.3,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.45,0.41,0.52,0.7,0.64,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.94,0.88,0.86,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1	92.9%
GSW 95, DAL 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.5,0.55,0.63,0.66,0.62,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.34,0.43,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.74,0.85,0.88,0.93,0.94,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	92.8%