NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	92		Excitement	3.7 [1060]		MVP	Andrei Kirilenko (UTA): +14.0%
Chicago Bulls	80		Comeback	1.3 [428]		LVP	Antonio Davis (CHI): -10.8%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrei Kirilenko	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.01	0.01	13	81%	0.17	2	-0.03	6	100%	0.03
DeShawn Stevenson	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.10	0.00	0.03	11	82%	0.09	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0	100%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Jarron Collins	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Sasha Pavlovic	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	6	36%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Carlos Arroyo	-0.02	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.12	0.01	-0.09	8	64%	0.04	8	-0.06	6	100%	0.01
Raul Lopez	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	7	57%	0.04	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Raja Bell	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	4	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Greg Ostertag	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.14	-0.00	-0.06	4	20%	-0.03	4	-0.06	2	0%	-0.02
Matt Harpring	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	16	42%	-0.03	3	-0.06	4	75%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Jefferies	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	2	83%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Rick Brunson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	-0.04	8	48%	-0.00	2	-0.02	7	100%	0.02
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.03	13	41%	-0.03	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.02
Corie Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	7	52%	-0.02	1	-0.01	9	67%	-0.02
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	-0.05	12	46%	0.02	4	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Linton Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kendall Gill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	11	41%	-0.07	0	0.00	10	70%	-0.02
Marcus Fizer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	-0.01	-0.03	8	25%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Davis	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.12	-0.01	-0.02	10	38%	-0.05	3	-0.06	6	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.3	1.8	32.1	15.4	26.4	2.4	32.5	131.8
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +36.5%

UTA +5.2%

UTA +16.2%

CHI -10.1%

UTA +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	CHI	NBA	UTA	CHI	NBA
this game	16.3	15.5	15.7	101.1	88.9	100.5
season	17.2	15.2		99.4	94.6
opponent	15.4	15.2		101.3	100.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	15.8	18.3	17.1	14.2	16.3
CHI	17.7	13.0	16.4	15.2	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carlos Arroyo	56	55	0.55	-0.05	0.60	-0.13	23	-11	34	15.6	17.4	-1.82	17.2	12.9	4.34
Greg Ostertag	72	69	0.49	0.01	0.49	-0.00	17	-5	22	16.1	17.0	-0.87	16.2	13.3	2.84
Andrei Kirilenko	68	67	0.46	0.04	0.41	-0.01	16	-4	20	16.4	16.0	0.41	16.0	14.0	2.03
DeShawn Stevenson	60	58	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.08	18	-6	24	15.1	18.6	-3.50	16.3	14.1	2.15
Matt Harpring	65	65	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.11	10	2	8	16.3	16.3	-0.05	16.2	13.7	2.54
Sasha Pavlovic	49	48	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.20	-2	14	-16	16.2	16.5	-0.27	13.8	17.4	-3.60
Raja Bell	31	32	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.23	-6	18	-24	18.6	15.1	3.50	14.1	16.3	-2.15
Jarron Collins	19	21	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.15	-5	17	-22	17.0	16.1	0.87	13.3	16.2	-2.84
Raul Lopez	30	31	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.19	-7	19	-26	18.0	15.5	2.57	13.2	16.7	-3.58
Mo Williams	5	4	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.09	-4	16	-20	13.8	16.5	-2.65	10.5	15.7	-5.24

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Jefferies	4	4	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-10	8	12.7	15.6	-2.89	2.2	17.0	-14.70
Eddie Robinson	30	32	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.22	6	-18	24	14.2	16.2	-1.97	14.4	17.3	-2.88
Jamal Crawford	49	51	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.27	7	-19	26	16.2	14.7	1.43	15.5	17.3	-1.73
Corie Blount	37	38	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.26	6	-18	24	14.3	16.4	-2.11	17.2	15.7	1.50
Linton Johnson	16	15	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.01	-4	-8	4	12.3	16.2	-3.89	17.9	16.0	1.95
Marcus Fizer	35	37	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.15	-1	-11	10	15.5	15.5	-0.04	15.8	16.7	-0.88
Jerome Williams	53	52	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.03	-8	-4	-4	15.5	15.5	-0.00	17.0	15.3	1.71
Rick Brunson	56	55	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.01	-13	1	-14	14.7	16.8	-2.11	15.4	17.7	-2.39
Antonio Davis	49	49	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	0.05	-16	4	-20	16.7	14.1	2.55	16.8	15.8	1.01
Kirk Hinrich	65	67	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.04	-14	2	-16	16.0	14.1	1.93	17.4	13.3	4.04
Kendall Gill	56	55	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	0.10	-21	9	-30	16.7	13.5	3.28	17.0	15.3	1.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.14,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.04,0.03,0.05,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 102, SAS 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.43,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.31,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.27,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.28,0.23,0.16,0.19,0.17,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.18,0.13,0.12,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	96.1%
ORL 109, CHH 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.27,0.22,0.25,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.25,0.29,0.28,0.27,0.21,0.14,0.15,0.12,0.06,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0	96.0%
HOU 99, POR 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.34,0.36,0.27,0.26,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.11,0.07,0.14,0.02,0,0,0	95.9%