NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	99		Excitement	3.3 [1140]		MVP	Fred Jones (POR): +13.5%
Portland Trail Blazers	95		Comeback	1.1 [1175]		LVP	Travis Outlaw (POR): -7.8%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy McGrady	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.04	0.04	-0.03	25	50%	0.12	1	-0.01	14	71%	-0.01
Rafer Alston	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12	0.11	0.01	-0.00	13	68%	0.13	2	-0.01	8	62%	0.00
Yao Ming	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11	0.04	0.04	-0.03	18	55%	0.13	3	-0.03	13	85%	0.02
Luther Head	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.02	5	58%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Charles Hayes	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	3	87%	0.04	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
John Lucas III	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Shane Battier	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	3	50%	0.03	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	0.00	-0.04	4	0%	-0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Fred Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.12	0.01	-0.00	13	67%	0.14	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Brandon Roy	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	18	54%	0.06	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Luke Schenscher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.05	0.00	0.04	4	67%	0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0	-0.00	0.05	-0.00	0.05	6	65%	0.01	1	-0.01	8	87%	0.01
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	8	42%	-0.00	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.01
Dan Dickau	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	6	31%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Sergio Rodriguez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Martell Webster	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	0.00	6	33%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	0.02	8	28%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	0.06	14	53%	-0.02	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.5	27.3	14.7	29.0	1.8	40.3	137.8
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +36.4%

HOU +4.9%

HOU +2.8%

HOU +4.7%

HOU +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	POR	NBA	HOU	POR	NBA
this game	14.2	16.4	15.4	106.5	100.0	104.5
season	15.6	16.7		103.6	103.1
opponent	15.4	15.7		108.3	99.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	11.2	17.4	14.1	14.3	14.2
POR	21.0	15.4	15.3	14.5	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rafer Alston	86	88	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.20	15	-11	26	13.7	20.6	-6.91	16.2	19.7	-3.54
Yao Ming	74	76	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.17	13	-9	22	13.7	15.9	-2.15	16.1	17.8	-1.76
Charles Hayes	63	62	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.24	8	-4	12	12.9	16.9	-4.01	16.8	15.8	0.94
Tracy McGrady	72	73	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.22	5	-1	6	14.4	13.5	0.85	17.2	14.0	3.16
Shane Battier	74	75	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.36	-1	5	-6	14.2	14.1	0.16	16.9	14.6	2.26
Luther Head	52	55	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.35	-6	10	-16	14.8	13.4	1.37	15.3	17.9	-2.58
John Lucas III	0	1	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.05	2	2	0	0.0	14.2	-14.18	0.0	16.6	-16.61
Juwan Howard	32	32	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.34	-12	16	-28	17.4	12.5	4.91	16.1	16.6	-0.46
Dikembe Mutombo	12	13	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.08	-4	8	-12	14.8	14.1	0.75	18.5	16.1	2.35

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Schenscher	28	27	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.23	8	-12	20	16.9	16.2	0.65	16.0	13.4	2.56
Dan Dickau	32	31	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.57	19	-23	42	14.4	17.5	-3.10	15.5	13.5	1.90
Sergio Rodriguez	17	15	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.04	-5	1	-6	18.1	16.1	2.05	14.1	14.2	-0.06
Travis Outlaw	61	59	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.42	9	-13	22	15.0	18.9	-3.86	14.5	13.7	0.75
Fred Jones	56	55	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.50	11	-15	26	15.8	17.4	-1.57	14.6	13.5	1.11
Raef LaFrentz	34	34	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.04	-13	9	-22	18.9	15.0	3.86	13.7	14.5	-0.75
Jarrett Jack	44	44	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.08	-15	11	-26	17.2	15.8	1.44	14.0	14.4	-0.39
Brandon Roy	78	78	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.37	-1	-3	2	16.2	17.4	-1.12	13.5	17.8	-4.31
Martell Webster	58	56	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	0.18	-21	17	-38	17.4	14.9	2.43	14.2	14.2	-0.01
Jamaal Magloire	67	66	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.16	-12	8	-20	16.2	16.9	-0.65	13.4	16.0	-2.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.34,0.36,0.27,0.26,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.11,0.07,0.14,0.02,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 83, POR 68	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.31,0.3,0.28,0.26,0.31,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.23,0.17,0.18,0.1,0.14,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.5%
LAC 94, LAL 84	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.31,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.22,0.14,0.22,0.26,0.15,0.2,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.01,0.02,0,0	96.2%
LAC 126, MEM 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.31,0.27,0.25,0.24,0.29,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.21,0.18,0.19,0.17,0.22,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.1%