NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	102		Excitement	3.8 [1080]		MVP	James Harden (HOU): +11.2%
San Antonio Spurs	91		Comeback	1.3 [825]		LVP	Dejounte Murray (SAS): -10.7%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0.11	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.14	0.00	0.03	20	65%	0.15	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Ryan Anderson	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.13	0.00	0.03	6	93%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Clint Capela	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.00	-0.01	10	64%	0.09	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Luc Mbah a Moute	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.02	-0.00	-0.06	10	45%	0.04	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Green	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.01	13	48%	0.03	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
PJ Tucker	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.06	0.00	0.04	7	62%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nene	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	3	37%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Paul	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.12	0.02	-0.06	14	34%	0.02	3	-0.07	1	0%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bryn Forbes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	6	69%	0.07	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Danny Green	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.10	-0.01	0.03	18	59%	0.07	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Darrun Hilliard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.01	2	67%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brandon Paul	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Joffrey Lauvergne	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	7	47%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	0.02	15	53%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Davis Bertans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	0.01	5	30%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.08	-0.00	-0.04	8	25%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.10	-0.01	-0.03	8	31%	-0.02	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	0.02	1	75%	0.01	4	-0.09	6	100%	0.02
Dejounte Murray	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.01	0.00	6	43%	-0.02	4	-0.09	2	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	3.5	27.3	15.5	28.0	3.5	27.7	127.6
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +34.2%

HOU +1.3%

SAS -2.9%

HOU +17.2%

HOU +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	SAS	NBA	HOU	SAS	NBA
this game	15.6	15.7	14.7	109.7	100.0	107.5
season	14.6	15.5		112.8	106.7
opponent	14.5	14.8		104.1	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	12.4	15.1	17.5	17.8	15.6
SAS	18.9	14.3	11.8	18.2	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Harden	70	68	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.02	18	-7	25	15.6	15.7	-0.14	16.0	14.6	1.42
Clint Capela	67	66	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.13	10	1	9	16.1	14.4	1.68	16.5	13.6	2.85
PJ Tucker	60	58	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.14	9	2	7	15.2	16.5	-1.32	15.3	16.3	-0.99
Ryan Anderson	55	54	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.10	17	-6	23	16.1	15.0	1.03	16.1	15.1	0.95
Gerald Green	58	58	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.12	8	3	5	14.9	16.9	-1.96	16.1	14.9	1.24
Luc Mbah a Moute	68	66	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.26	-2	13	-15	15.8	15.1	0.76	16.0	14.7	1.31
Chris Paul	61	60	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.27	-6	17	-23	16.2	14.5	1.73	14.4	18.1	-3.63
Nene	26	25	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.05	1	10	-9	14.4	16.1	-1.68	13.6	16.5	-2.85

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darrun Hilliard	15	16	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.17	9	-20	29	13.3	16.1	-2.80	18.3	15.1	3.23
Brandon Paul	2	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-14	17	8.0	15.8	-7.84	20.7	15.5	5.20
Joffrey Lauvergne	2	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-14	17	8.0	15.8	-7.84	20.7	15.5	5.20
Tony Parker	34	34	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.10	1	-12	13	14.7	16.2	-1.49	15.5	15.7	-0.21
Bryn Forbes	35	36	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.07	-2	-9	7	15.1	16.0	-0.95	15.2	15.9	-0.76
Manu Ginobili	38	39	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.07	-8	-3	-5	15.4	15.8	-0.43	15.4	15.8	-0.47
Pau Gasol	40	41	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.06	-4	-7	3	16.0	15.4	0.59	14.6	16.5	-1.88
Davis Bertans	23	23	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.11	-4	-7	3	17.6	15.0	2.59	15.5	15.7	-0.15
Patty Mills	44	46	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.07	-7	-4	-3	15.1	16.2	-1.08	16.4	14.9	1.58
Dejounte Murray	48	49	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.03	-11	0	-11	15.4	15.9	-0.49	15.0	16.3	-1.34
Danny Green	54	54	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.07	-10	-1	-9	16.5	14.5	1.95	15.5	15.8	-0.32
Kyle Anderson	56	57	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.11	-9	-2	-7	16.0	15.1	0.95	15.9	15.2	0.76
LaMarcus Aldridge	64	64	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	0.01	-16	5	-21	16.3	14.1	2.22	15.5	16.0	-0.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.43,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.31,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.27,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.28,0.23,0.16,0.19,0.17,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.18,0.13,0.12,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 109, CHH 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.27,0.22,0.25,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.25,0.29,0.28,0.27,0.21,0.14,0.15,0.12,0.06,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0	96.5%
UTA 92, CHI 80	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.14,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.04,0.03,0.05,0,0,0	96.1%
DAL 98, MEM 83	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.32,0.36,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.26,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	96.1%