NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	109		Excitement	3.5 [1064]		MVP	Pat Garrity (ORL): +17.5%
Charlotte Hornets	99		Comeback	1.2 [965]		LVP	David Wesley (CHH): -10.3%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pat Garrity	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.16	0.00	-0.02	11	86%	0.18	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.00	0.01	12	78%	0.11	3	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Tracy McGrady	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.00	0.01	-0.04	21	52%	0.07	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Horace Grant	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	6	76%	0.04	2	-0.02	5	60%	-0.00
Troy Hudson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jud Buechler	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Ewing	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Andrew DeClercq	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	12	52%	0.02	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	7	67%	0.05	5	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Steven Hunter	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.11	0.00	-0.06	3	10%	-0.04	1	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Elden Campbell	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.10	-0.00	0.03	12	82%	0.13	3	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Stacey Augmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	4	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	0.00	0.03	6	65%	-0.01	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.02
Matt Bullard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lee Nailon	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	12	42%	-0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Bryce Drew	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	-0.04	5	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	0.01	0.05	25	51%	-0.00	5	-0.09	3	67%	0.00
David Wesley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.00	0.00	17	38%	-0.08	2	-0.02	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.9	2.4	27.3	14.8	24.6	1.8	27.4	123.3
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +49.0%

ORL +2.3%

CHH -4.4%

ORL +3.4%

CHH -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	CHH	NBA	ORL	CHH	NBA
this game	13.9	15.7	15.6	111.2	102.1	102.3
season	14.6	15.9		104.6	102.2
opponent	15.6	15.8		101.1	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	10.6	13.2	15.7	16.5	13.9
CHH	17.1	14.5	16.4	14.8	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Miller	57	56	0.50	-0.00	0.51	-0.05	19	-9	28	13.7	14.0	-0.33	16.2	15.0	1.24
Tracy McGrady	79	78	0.50	0.00	0.49	-0.00	17	-7	24	13.3	16.1	-2.72	16.3	13.1	3.28
Horace Grant	61	60	0.48	0.02	0.47	-0.01	17	-7	24	13.4	14.5	-1.10	15.7	15.6	0.16
Pat Garrity	55	55	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.07	10	0	10	13.3	14.6	-1.25	16.2	15.0	1.18
Grant Hill	62	63	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.06	10	0	10	14.1	13.5	0.56	16.6	14.1	2.51
Darrell Armstrong	81	79	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.16	5	5	0	13.4	16.0	-2.59	15.6	15.9	-0.31
Patrick Ewing	33	32	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.10	-1	11	-12	13.4	14.1	-0.74	17.1	15.0	2.14
Andrew DeClercq	8	8	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.06	-2	12	-14	17.7	13.5	4.24	11.6	16.1	-4.43
Troy Hudson	10	10	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	15	-20	18.0	13.4	4.61	11.6	16.2	-4.56
Steven Hunter	28	28	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.17	-7	17	-24	14.9	13.4	1.45	13.5	16.6	-3.03
Jud Buechler	16	16	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.32	-13	23	-36	16.6	13.3	3.23	11.1	16.6	-5.54

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bryce Drew	21	20	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.19	5	-15	20	13.1	16.4	-3.25	15.4	13.4	2.00
Matt Bullard	30	29	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.07	-4	-6	2	15.6	15.7	-0.18	13.8	13.9	-0.04
Elden Campbell	58	58	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.12	-4	-6	2	16.4	14.6	1.80	13.9	13.7	0.22
Lee Nailon	61	61	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.18	-2	-8	6	15.6	15.9	-0.36	13.9	13.9	-0.01
Jamaal Magloire	39	40	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.09	-6	-4	-2	14.6	16.4	-1.80	13.7	13.9	-0.22
Stacey Augmon	44	44	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.06	-8	-2	-6	15.7	15.7	0.07	13.7	14.0	-0.32
P.J. Brown	54	56	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.01	-11	1	-12	16.6	14.5	2.12	13.2	14.8	-1.62
Baron Davis	86	88	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.16	-10	0	-10	15.8	14.5	1.29	14.0	12.9	1.07
David Wesley	79	81	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.02	-15	5	-20	16.3	13.1	3.24	13.4	15.8	-2.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.27,0.22,0.25,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.25,0.29,0.28,0.27,0.21,0.14,0.15,0.12,0.06,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 102, SAS 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.43,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.31,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.27,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.28,0.23,0.16,0.19,0.17,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.18,0.13,0.12,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	96.5%
DET 83, POR 68	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.31,0.3,0.28,0.26,0.31,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.23,0.17,0.18,0.1,0.14,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%
LAL 93, DET 81	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.47,0.39,0.43,0.35,0.34,0.25,0.26,0.28,0.22,0.25,0.23,0.29,0.26,0.21,0.13,0.14,0.15,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%