NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	91		Excitement	4.3 [938]		MVP	John Wallace (MIA): +9.2%
Golden State Warriors	101		Comeback	1.4 [983]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -25.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Wallace	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.10	0.04	0.04	7	87%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Lamar Odom	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.00	-0.01	11	74%	0.13	3	-0.07	5	80%	0.01
Tyrone Hill	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.01	3	100%	0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	10	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Samaki Walker	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Loren Woods	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Caron Butler	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.01	-0.05	5	20%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	7	44%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Eddie Jones	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.03	-0.02	13	29%	-0.09	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Dwyane Wade	-0.25	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.17,-0.21,-0.23,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.24,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.18	-0.06	0.02	17	34%	-0.15	4	-0.10	4	75%	-0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	-0.01	-0.01	13	66%	0.12	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	10	55%	0.05	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.01	-0.02	21	62%	0.10	5	-0.07	5	80%	-0.01
Speedy Claxton	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	9	57%	0.04	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Cherokee Parks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Sean Lampley	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Cardinal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	4	50%	0.00	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.02	-0.04	13	46%	-0.06	2	-0.00	9	67%	-0.02
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	-0.03	5	20%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	586.2	1.6	26.4	16.3	-693.7	2.0	32.3	-28.8
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +24.0%

GSW +5.0%

GSW +16.8%

GSW +3.4%

GSW +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	GSW	NBA	MIA	GSW	NBA
this game	15.2	15.5	15.7	95.8	108.6	100.5
season	16.2	16.1		99.3	100.8
opponent	15.3	15.9		101.6	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.0	15.1	16.4	14.1	15.2
GSW	15.0	15.5	14.9	16.5	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Caron Butler	22	21	0.08	-0.58	0.67	-0.21	10	-20	30	13.4	15.7	-2.29	16.1	15.3	0.87
Loren Woods	19	19	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.20	7	-17	24	13.8	15.5	-1.66	16.8	15.1	1.72
Samaki Walker	8	9	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.18	6	-16	22	12.5	15.4	-2.91	16.2	15.4	0.83
Rafer Alston	70	68	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.19	4	-14	18	14.8	16.3	-1.51	15.8	14.6	1.25
John Wallace	36	34	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.17	1	-11	12	14.6	15.5	-0.90	15.6	15.4	0.14
Tyrone Hill	20	20	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.00	-6	-4	-2	15.5	15.1	0.48	16.0	15.3	0.67
Brian Grant	56	54	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.01	-11	1	-12	15.5	14.7	0.76	14.8	16.4	-1.61
Dwyane Wade	66	66	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.08	-11	1	-12	15.3	15.0	0.29	15.4	15.7	-0.38
Udonis Haslem	42	42	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.07	-18	8	-26	16.0	14.5	1.41	15.2	15.7	-0.52
Eddie Jones	56	55	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.00	-17	7	-24	16.3	13.6	2.72	15.4	15.6	-0.18
Lamar Odom	80	77	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.06	-15	5	-20	15.2	14.7	0.52	15.2	16.9	-1.77

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Richardson	81	83	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.12	16	-6	22	15.0	18.6	-3.57	15.2	14.9	0.29
Speedy Claxton	67	69	0.54	-0.04	0.59	-0.10	22	-12	34	14.9	17.0	-2.17	16.0	12.9	3.14
Clifford Robinson	56	57	0.52	-0.02	0.53	-0.01	18	-8	26	15.1	16.0	-0.92	15.9	14.1	1.73
Erick Dampier	63	64	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.10	14	-4	18	15.4	15.6	-0.19	15.3	14.9	0.44
Mike Dunleavy	74	76	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.27	5	5	0	15.6	15.2	0.40	15.4	14.4	0.93
Cherokee Parks	18	19	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.11	-2	12	-14	15.6	15.5	0.10	14.0	15.5	-1.46
Sean Lampley	8	8	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	9	-8	13.0	15.7	-2.71	18.6	14.9	3.77
Brian Cardinal	37	38	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.22	-8	18	-26	16.0	15.1	0.92	14.1	15.9	-1.73
Avery Johnson	28	27	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.25	-10	20	-30	16.9	14.9	2.03	13.2	16.0	-2.77
Calbert Cheaney	33	34	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.10	-6	16	-22	17.1	14.6	2.55	14.1	15.8	-1.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.67,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.46,0.51,0.58,0.59,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.67,0.79,0.84,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 74, OKC 99	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.6,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.7,0.82,0.93,0.91,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%
NOP 106, DEN 122	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.63,0.68,0.63,0.66,0.73,0.73,0.65,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.76,0.82,0.83,0.92,0.98,0.96,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%
DEN 97, SAC 119	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.72,0.7,0.71,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.41,0.58,0.7,0.7,0.79,0.89,0.92,0.86,0.85,0.9,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%