NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	105		Excitement	4.8 [829]		MVP	Jamal Crawford (CHI): +12.8%
Chicago Bulls	119		Comeback	1.0 [540]		LVP	Erick Dampier (GSW): -14.9%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gilbert Arenas	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.08	0.02	0.06	16	72%	0.11	4	-0.07	7	86%	0.01
Chris Mills	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	0.00	0.03	6	69%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	7	71%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.00	0.01	12	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Dunleavy	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	5	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bob Sura	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	-0.01	-0.04	10	41%	-0.01	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Antawn Jamison	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	0.00	0.05	17	55%	-0.00	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Earl Boykins	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	3	14%	-0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jason Richardson	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	8	28%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Erick Dampier	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.13	-0.03	-0.00	4	0%	-0.08	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.11	0.04	0.02	9	83%	0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eddy Curry	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.02	0.01	16	63%	0.11	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Trenton Hassell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	6	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jay Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	5	75%	0.07	4	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Fred Hoiberg	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lonny Baxter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	56%	0.03	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	18	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.01
Donyell Marshall	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	14	44%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	0.03	15	66%	0.07	5	-0.10	5	60%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	525.1	1.7	27.8	14.8	26.2	1.8	29.3	626.7
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +51.0%

GSW -0.8%

CHI +9.3%

GSW -8.5%

GSW -1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	CHI	NBA	GSW	CHI	NBA
this game	14.5	14.6	15.5	107.1	119.0	101.6
season	14.6	15.0		105.3	98.3
opponent	15.1	15.1		103.3	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	15.2	15.8	13.5	13.6	14.5
CHI	12.5	14.8	15.9	15.2	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Dunleavy	40	40	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.23	10	-24	34	15.0	14.1	0.91	14.6	14.5	0.12
Earl Boykins	23	23	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.13	5	-19	24	16.4	13.9	2.46	14.1	14.7	-0.58
Bob Sura	47	49	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.17	6	-20	26	14.6	14.4	0.25	14.5	14.6	-0.10
Erick Dampier	18	20	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.04	-1	-13	12	15.6	14.3	1.28	14.9	14.5	0.46
Chris Mills	40	41	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.04	-4	-10	6	14.2	14.7	-0.48	14.9	14.4	0.55
Adonal Foyle	57	56	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.09	-9	-5	-4	14.7	14.2	0.50	14.4	14.8	-0.43
Troy Murphy	68	70	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.03	-12	-2	-10	14.4	14.8	-0.47	14.8	14.0	0.78
Gilbert Arenas	75	77	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	0.04	-19	5	-24	13.9	16.4	-2.46	14.7	14.1	0.58
Jason Richardson	55	55	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	0.07	-21	7	-28	14.9	14.0	0.83	14.3	14.9	-0.56
Antawn Jamison	67	69	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	0.18	-25	11	-36	13.7	16.4	-2.70	14.4	15.0	-0.61

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Crawford	66	65	0.58	-0.08	0.66	-0.10	23	-9	32	14.2	15.4	-1.26	14.5	14.5	0.08
Tyson Chandler	82	81	0.56	-0.06	0.62	-0.06	21	-7	28	14.5	15.2	-0.72	14.5	14.6	-0.17
Jalen Rose	95	93	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.06	16	-2	18	14.6	14.4	0.19	14.5	14.4	0.12
Donyell Marshall	86	83	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.03	17	-3	20	14.5	14.9	-0.41	14.4	15.0	-0.58
Eddy Curry	71	70	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.04	16	-2	18	14.4	15.0	-0.64	14.9	13.6	1.31
Fred Hoiberg	5	5	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.03	-2	16	-18	14.4	14.6	-0.19	14.4	14.5	-0.12
Trenton Hassell	42	41	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.14	-6	20	-26	15.0	14.3	0.77	14.2	14.8	-0.58
Lonny Baxter	19	19	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.11	-6	20	-26	15.1	14.5	0.65	14.4	14.5	-0.18
Jay Williams	34	33	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.18	-9	23	-32	15.4	14.2	1.26	14.5	14.5	-0.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.91,0.88,0.9,0.85,0.92,0.92,0.97,0.94,0.9,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 89, CHI 107	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.7,0.64,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.85,0.84,0.91,0.88,0.89,0.9,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.93,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.92,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.8%
ATL 89, CLE 111	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.73,0.77,0.73,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.69,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.79,0.8,0.87,0.91,0.89,0.93,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%
LAC 87, DEN 114	0.5,0.49,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.68,0.7,0.68,0.68,0.76,0.75,0.73,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.72,0.7,0.74,0.84,0.89,0.83,0.82,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%