NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	89		Excitement	4.6 [898]		MVP	Jason Kapono (MIA): +12.8%
Chicago Bulls	107		Comeback	1.1 [948]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -11.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Kapono	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.05	-0.01	8	69%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.03	-0.04	7	65%	0.14	3	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	-0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	-0.01	0.02	8	61%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Eddie Jones	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	5	60%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.09	0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	0.00	-0.01	14	52%	0.03	7	-0.12	5	100%	0.02
Jason Williams	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	0.00	7	25%	-0.08	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Dwyane Wade	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.12,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.03	-0.02	19	48%	0.02	7	-0.13	6	50%	-0.04

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.02	-0.03	19	71%	0.22	6	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.07	-0.00	12	58%	0.14	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.01	7	67%	0.09	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Luol Deng	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.03	0.02	19	62%	0.12	3	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	6	64%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.01	6	71%	0.09	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	0.00	0.03	5	90%	0.02	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	2	29%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.6	2.7	29.2	19.4	29.1	2.8	30.3	142.0
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +51.6%

MIA -12.0%

CHI +3.6%

CHI +6.5%

CHI +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHI	NBA	MIA	CHI	NBA
this game	16.6	14.4	15.4	96.7	113.8	104.5
season	16.0	14.5		102.4	103.1
opponent	15.9	15.6		98.1	104.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.0	16.3	16.5	17.7	16.6
CHI	12.3	15.0	14.2	16.6	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Posey	58	59	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.09	1	-19	20	16.1	17.4	-1.35	15.2	13.1	2.06
Jason Kapono	62	63	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.02	-3	-15	12	16.1	17.5	-1.40	15.4	12.3	3.11
Alonzo Mourning	23	22	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.07	-6	-12	6	14.9	17.1	-2.23	14.9	14.3	0.60
Antoine Walker	46	47	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.03	-4	-14	10	16.4	16.8	-0.39	15.1	13.7	1.40
Udonis Haslem	42	43	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	0.03	-13	-5	-8	17.2	16.1	1.11	13.5	15.1	-1.60
Eddie Jones	35	36	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.05	-14	-4	-10	16.5	16.6	-0.16	12.3	15.7	-3.36
Dwyane Wade	78	80	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.08	-11	-7	-4	16.7	16.1	0.61	14.2	15.4	-1.20
Shaquille O'Neal	56	59	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.10	-19	1	-20	17.8	14.7	3.06	15.0	13.4	1.60
Jason Williams	60	61	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	0.07	-21	3	-24	16.7	16.3	0.42	13.4	16.3	-2.88

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
P.J. Brown	59	59	0.63	-0.13	0.76	-0.13	26	-8	34	14.0	15.0	-0.99	17.6	14.7	2.95
Ben Gordon	85	84	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.05	19	-1	20	14.6	12.4	2.17	17.1	11.5	5.57
Luol Deng	77	76	0.49	0.01	0.48	-0.10	20	-2	22	14.4	14.4	0.06	16.6	16.5	0.11
Ben Wallace	74	72	0.41	0.09	0.31	-0.15	19	-1	20	14.8	13.1	1.66	16.9	15.6	1.26
Kirk Hinrich	54	54	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.06	10	8	2	13.6	15.5	-1.95	16.9	16.2	0.64
Thabo Sefolosha	26	24	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.14	11	7	4	15.0	14.2	0.77	16.2	16.7	-0.57
Tyrus Thomas	15	14	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.08	-2	20	-22	14.9	14.3	0.55	14.1	17.0	-2.97
Chris Duhon	36	35	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.08	-2	20	-22	14.6	14.3	0.34	16.2	16.8	-0.58
Adrian Griffin	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	20	-22	15.3	14.4	0.96	12.0	16.7	-4.69
Malik Allen	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	20	-22	15.3	14.4	0.96	12.0	16.7	-4.69
Andres Nocioni	38	38	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.10	-7	25	-32	14.1	14.6	-0.55	14.9	17.7	-2.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.7,0.64,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.85,0.84,0.91,0.88,0.89,0.9,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.93,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.92,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 105, CHI 119	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.91,0.88,0.9,0.85,0.92,0.92,0.97,0.94,0.9,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%
DET 80, SEA 93	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.55,0.65,0.68,0.6,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.58,0.65,0.77,0.82,0.85,0.87,0.84,0.85,0.84,0.87,0.89,0.95,0.95,0.9,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.96,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%
NYK 92, TOR 115	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.47,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.66,0.72,0.78,0.89,0.9,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.93,0.93,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%