NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	94		Excitement	6.4 [501]		MVP	Chris Mills (GSW): +6.0%
Denver Nuggets	89		Comeback	1.7 [717]		LVP	Rodney White (DEN): -22.7%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Mills	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	9	64%	0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Adonal Foyle	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	5	73%	0.05	1	-0.01	5	100%	0.03
Bob Sura	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0,-0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	10	54%	0.07	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Antawn Jamison	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	5	56%	0.01	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Earl Boykins	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	6	64%	0.04	3	-0.05	10	70%	-0.01
Mike Dunleavy	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	-0.04	7	29%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	6	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	9	25%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Gilbert Arenas	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12	-0.12	-0.00	0.01	16	50%	0.02	6	-0.15	6	100%	0.04
Troy Murphy	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.12	-0.01	0.00	8	17%	-0.11	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.00	0.01	6	71%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	5	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Juwan Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	22	55%	0.02	3	-0.08	9	78%	0.02
Vincent Yarbrough	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Junior Harrington	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	5	40%	-0.00	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.04	0.01	7	54%	-0.08	1	-0.02	12	50%	-0.10
Donnell Harvey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	11	38%	-0.04	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	0.01	9	40%	-0.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	3	10%	-0.08	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.05
Shammond Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.18,-0.22,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.22	-0.22	-0.18	-0.05	-0.01	9	28%	-0.06	6	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Rodney White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.23	-0.23	-0.17	-0.06	-0.00	9	11%	-0.13	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.4	28.4	15.6	28.3	1.8	37.3	136.9
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +23.9%

GSW +14.7%

DEN -12.8%

GSW +26.5%

DEN -2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DEN	NBA	GSW	DEN	NBA
this game	14.4	13.0	15.5	89.5	84.8	101.6
season	14.6	15.7		105.3	90.4
opponent	15.3	15.1		99.4	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.4	12.4	16.0	14.9	14.4
DEN	11.7	14.7	13.4	12.3	13.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Mills	60	61	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.26	16	-11	27	13.7	15.3	-1.67	13.4	12.6	0.79
Earl Boykins	57	58	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.21	16	-11	27	13.7	15.2	-1.56	13.1	13.0	0.05
Bob Sura	57	57	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.24	15	-10	25	13.1	15.9	-2.83	13.1	13.0	0.09
Adonal Foyle	63	65	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.09	13	-8	21	12.7	16.9	-4.17	13.6	12.2	1.37
Mike Dunleavy	47	48	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.04	13	-8	21	12.6	15.8	-3.19	13.6	12.6	0.99
Gilbert Arenas	65	64	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.32	-12	17	-29	15.3	12.9	2.43	12.3	14.1	-1.80
Jason Richardson	46	45	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.15	-8	13	-21	15.8	13.3	2.57	13.3	12.9	0.38
Troy Murphy	58	56	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.26	-12	17	-29	15.5	13.0	2.46	12.3	13.9	-1.52
Erick Dampier	29	28	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.09	-7	12	-19	17.3	13.3	4.00	12.5	13.2	-0.70
Antawn Jamison	43	43	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.11	-9	14	-23	16.0	13.2	2.78	13.2	13.0	0.23

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Junior Harrington	60	61	0.16	-0.66	0.83	-0.33	17	-22	39	12.2	14.2	-1.94	15.1	13.4	1.67
Ryan Bowen	36	37	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.10	5	-10	15	13.4	12.9	0.56	16.1	13.4	2.67
Vincent Yarbrough	43	42	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-7	9	13.7	12.6	1.06	15.6	13.6	1.98
Juwan Howard	89	90	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.42	9	-14	23	12.6	15.6	-3.04	14.7	12.3	2.47
Donnell Harvey	45	44	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.28	3	-8	11	12.3	13.6	-1.29	14.6	14.2	0.40
Nene	52	53	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.19	-2	-3	1	13.6	12.5	1.12	16.1	12.6	3.50
Marcus Camby	53	51	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.16	-3	-2	-1	12.5	13.6	-1.12	12.9	15.8	-2.95
Chris Andersen	16	15	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.06	-14	9	-23	15.6	12.6	3.04	12.3	14.7	-2.47
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	21	22	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.05	-14	9	-23	14.7	12.6	2.08	12.2	15.0	-2.72
Shammond Williams	63	63	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.09	-16	11	-27	12.7	13.5	-0.79	12.5	17.3	-4.80
Rodney White	47	47	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.26	-12	7	-19	13.6	12.6	1.07	14.1	14.6	-0.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.63,0.6,0.51,0.45,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.22,0.14,0.13,0.18,0.14,0.19,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.26,0.14,0.24,0.19,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 98, VAN 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.54,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.29,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.2,0.18,0.12,0.16,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.17,0.09,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.16,0.22,0.13,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.6%
MIA 100, ATL 92	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.33,0.32,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.17,0.2,0.16,0.19,0.17,0.18,0.11,0.12,0.09,0.2,0.16,0.11,0.16,0.29,0.19,0.16,0.12,0.13,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.5%
WAS 88, PHX 79	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.28,0.21,0.21,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.12,0.16,0.2,0.17,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.28,0.23,0.14,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.04,0.01,0,0	93.5%