NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	100		Excitement	4.4 [900]		MVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): +6.3%
Atlanta Hawks	92		Comeback	1.7 [830]		LVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): -11.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	0.01	0.03	9	75%	0.09	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.00
A.C. Green	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	7	78%	0.06	2	-0.01	4	100%	0.01
Cedric Ceballos	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	3	75%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brian Grant	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	11	62%	0.06	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Bruce Bowen	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.01	0.01	5	71%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Anthony Carter	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	8	55%	0.05	2	-0.06	4	25%	-0.06
Duane Causwell	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	5	40%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	8	48%	-0.01	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.00	13	42%	0.01	5	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hanno Mottola	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.00	0.02	5	100%	0.09	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	19	53%	0.06	1	-0.03	5	80%	-0.00
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Larry Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.06	-0.01	0.07	8	62%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dion Glover	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DerMarr Johnson	0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	0.04	7	84%	0.07	6	-0.13	5	80%	0.00
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	6	17%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alan Henderson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	0.04	9	68%	0.02	4	-0.10	4	75%	-0.00
Matt Maloney	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	7	14%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	1.7	27.1	15.5	25.6	2.4	31.6	127.8
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +28.0%

MIA +4.2%

MIA +14.9%

MIA +2.6%

MIA +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ATL	NBA	MIA	ATL	NBA
this game	17.5	15.6	15.5	113.6	107.0	100.9
season	16.3	15.4		98.4	96.0
opponent	15.1	16.1		101.6	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	20.2	17.1	17.8	15.3	17.5
ATL	15.8	16.3	15.7	14.7	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bruce Bowen	69	66	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.22	9	-1	10	16.5	21.2	-4.72	15.0	17.6	-2.65
Anthony Carter	53	50	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.13	11	-3	14	15.6	20.4	-4.84	15.1	16.2	-1.07
A.C. Green	40	39	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.12	11	-3	14	15.0	19.6	-4.56	15.7	15.5	0.22
Brian Grant	61	60	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.09	8	0	8	19.3	13.4	5.92	16.0	14.6	1.42
Tim Hardaway	51	51	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.10	6	2	4	19.8	14.4	5.36	15.6	15.5	0.14
Cedric Ceballos	15	14	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.06	11	-3	14	16.9	17.6	-0.78	17.5	15.2	2.31
Anthony Mason	69	68	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.28	-3	11	-14	17.6	17.3	0.25	15.4	16.2	-0.83
Duane Causwell	32	31	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.13	-3	11	-14	19.4	16.4	3.03	15.8	15.5	0.32
Eddie Jones	50	51	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.32	-10	18	-28	17.3	17.8	-0.44	15.7	15.3	0.38

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Crawford	9	9	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.04	-1	-7	6	13.7	15.8	-2.13	17.2	17.5	-0.32
Anthony Johnson	18	18	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.03	-3	-5	2	13.2	16.2	-2.97	16.1	17.9	-1.83
Dion Glover	8	8	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.06	-6	-2	-4	20.6	15.1	5.57	14.5	17.8	-3.31
Alan Henderson	52	55	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.21	1	-9	10	15.8	15.3	0.50	18.0	16.6	1.40
Hanno Mottola	32	32	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.20	0	-8	8	12.6	17.4	-4.79	15.2	18.8	-3.60
Larry Robinson	41	42	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.19	-1	-7	6	14.9	16.2	-1.28	15.7	19.2	-3.53
Lorenzen Wright	35	34	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.01	-9	1	-10	15.3	15.7	-0.43	16.4	18.2	-1.74
Jason Terry	72	74	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.30	1	-9	10	15.0	18.4	-3.33	17.7	16.6	1.12
Matt Maloney	53	55	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.13	-6	-2	-4	17.4	12.6	4.81	19.0	15.0	3.97
Dikembe Mutombo	53	55	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.11	-8	0	-8	17.4	12.7	4.66	19.0	15.1	3.92
DerMarr Johnson	57	58	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.16	-8	0	-8	15.4	16.0	-0.65	18.1	16.3	1.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.33,0.32,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.17,0.2,0.16,0.19,0.17,0.18,0.11,0.12,0.09,0.2,0.16,0.11,0.16,0.29,0.19,0.16,0.12,0.13,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 115, SAC 113	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.65,0.6,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.27,0.3,0.25,0.31,0.23,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.16,0.18,0.22,0.17,0.21,0.18,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.25,0.3,0.16,0.14,0.24,0.12,0.1,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.08,0	95.2%
UTA 111, DEN 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.65,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.12,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.07,0.1,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.15,0.1,0.18,0.12,0.17,0.12,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.09,0	94.8%
NOP 119, CHA 109	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.44,0.43,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.25,0.22,0.17,0.14,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.6%