NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	115		Excitement	6.2 [552]		MVP	DeMarcus Cousins (SAC): +20.0%
Sacramento Kings	113		Comeback	1.9 [458]		LVP	Toney Douglas (SAC): -9.8%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Jennings	0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15	0.04	0.10	-0.01	11	53%	0.17	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.07
Mike Dunleavy	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14	0.05	0.09	-0.00	10	67%	0.20	2	-0.05	4	50%	0.02
Gustavo Ayon	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.01	0.00	9	67%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.05	-0.02	0.07	-0.00	24	48%	0.13	3	-0.08	12	92%	0.08
Luc Mbah a Moute	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.00	6	58%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samuel Dalembert	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	6	62%	0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Ekpe Udoh	0.02	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	7	56%	0.03	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.02
John Henson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	5	43%	0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Marquis Daniels	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	8	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Drew Gooden	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMarcus Cousins	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.20	0.01	0.02	12	86%	0.20	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Jason Thompson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.05	0.02	13	64%	0.12	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jimmer Fredette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03	0.03	0.15	-0.02	0.09	6	87%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.03
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyreke Evans	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	0.01	0.04	17	53%	0.03	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Marcus Thornton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.01	9	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cole Aldrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	0.03	3	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	-0.00
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	6	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Isaiah Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.04,0,0,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.09	0.01	-0.03	16	37%	-0.02	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	8	28%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Toney Douglas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	1	0%	-0.03	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	1.5	28.7	14.8	29.2	2.4	37.0	137.1
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +25.0%

MIL +28.9%

SAC -9.0%

SAC -1.7%

MIL +7.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	SAC	NBA	MIL	SAC	NBA
this game	15.3	13.5	15.4	115.0	113.0	104.1
season	14.7	15.0		101.6	104.7
opponent	15.2	15.3		109.4	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.3	13.6	18.1	14.6	15.3
SAC	12.4	14.1	13.2	14.2	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Monta Ellis	88	86	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.41	5	-3	8	15.2	16.2	-1.07	13.6	12.7	0.90
Mike Dunleavy	57	57	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.33	7	-5	12	14.6	16.2	-1.54	13.8	13.1	0.61
Gustavo Ayon	30	31	0.47	0.03	0.44	-0.09	19	-17	36	13.9	15.9	-2.01	13.5	13.5	0.08
John Henson	34	33	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.02	14	-12	26	14.7	15.6	-0.96	15.0	12.7	2.25
Marquis Daniels	57	58	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.37	-4	6	-10	14.0	17.0	-3.05	13.3	13.8	-0.55
Brandon Jennings	77	77	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.46	-8	10	-18	15.8	13.6	2.27	13.1	14.9	-1.85
Samuel Dalembert	53	52	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.37	-7	9	-16	16.5	14.0	2.51	13.7	13.2	0.50
Ekpe Udoh	49	51	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.27	-9	11	-20	16.6	14.1	2.47	13.0	14.0	-0.96
Drew Gooden	21	19	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.06	-4	6	-10	13.5	15.8	-2.26	12.6	13.7	-1.06
Luc Mbah a Moute	34	36	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.01	-3	5	-8	17.1	14.4	2.69	13.4	13.5	-0.16

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cole Aldrich	7	7	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.24	10	-12	22	11.0	13.7	-2.68	13.1	15.5	-2.33
Toney Douglas	25	27	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.16	5	-7	12	13.6	13.5	0.15	14.2	15.7	-1.54
DeMarcus Cousins	58	59	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.16	3	-5	8	12.7	14.6	-1.86	15.9	14.4	1.56
Jimmer Fredette	20	20	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.37	8	-10	18	12.4	13.8	-1.36	13.7	15.7	-1.95
Travis Outlaw	6	5	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.08	-8	6	-14	18.8	13.1	5.68	11.4	15.5	-4.12
Tyreke Evans	65	64	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.46	9	-11	20	13.2	14.0	-0.74	15.5	14.9	0.66
Isaiah Thomas	71	70	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.05	-7	5	-12	13.9	12.6	1.27	16.3	13.0	3.30
Charles Hayes	10	9	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.09	-12	10	-22	16.2	13.2	3.01	13.4	15.5	-2.05
Patrick Patterson	33	33	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.01	-10	8	-18	15.2	12.6	2.62	15.3	15.3	-0.06
Jason Thompson	76	77	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.30	-1	-1	0	13.4	13.6	-0.18	15.6	14.3	1.25
John Salmons	76	76	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.34	0	-2	2	12.7	16.1	-3.47	15.4	15.1	0.24
Marcus Thornton	53	53	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.29	-7	5	-12	13.9	13.0	0.88	14.7	16.0	-1.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.65,0.6,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.27,0.3,0.25,0.31,0.23,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.16,0.18,0.22,0.17,0.21,0.18,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.25,0.3,0.16,0.14,0.24,0.12,0.1,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 100, ATL 92	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.33,0.32,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.17,0.2,0.16,0.19,0.17,0.18,0.11,0.12,0.09,0.2,0.16,0.11,0.16,0.29,0.19,0.16,0.12,0.13,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	95.2%
SAC 123, MIL 116	0.5,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.4,0.31,0.26,0.31,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.19,0.21,0.23,0.19,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.19,0.18,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,0	94.3%
WAS 88, PHX 79	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.28,0.21,0.21,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.12,0.16,0.2,0.17,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.28,0.23,0.14,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.04,0.01,0,0	94.1%