NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	92		Excitement	3.4 [1103]		MVP	Gilbert Arenas (GSW): +10.5%
Golden State Warriors	135		Comeback	1.5 [302]		LVP	Shawn Kemp (ORL): -8.8%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ryan Humphrey	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.01	0.01	-0.06	8	50%	0.07	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Garrity	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	5	57%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Olumide Oyedeji	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0	100%	0.00	1	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	3	33%	0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	1	25%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Jeryl Sasser	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	0.02	18	59%	-0.01	2	-0.02	20	80%	0.01
Grant Hill	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	9	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Pat Burke	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	0.00	12	38%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.10	-0.00	-0.03	9	46%	-0.06	3	-0.02	8	75%	-0.01
Shawn Kemp	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.12	-0.00	-0.03	11	25%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	-0.00	-0.02	14	66%	0.11	1	-0.01	7	100%	0.03
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.01	-0.04	8	65%	0.07	2	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.12	-0.00	0.05	11	75%	0.07	0	0.00	10	80%	-0.01
Erick Dampier	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	8	50%	0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	11	67%	0.04	4	-0.05	5	80%	-0.00
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	2	62%	-0.01	0	0.00	9	67%	-0.01
Antawn Jamison	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.10	-0.00	0.11	15	67%	0.01	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.00
Oscar Torres	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.10	0.00	0.11	6	86%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Dean Oliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jiri Welsch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.04	5	80%	0.00	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.5	2.6	29.7	16.0	29.3	2.6	29.2	136.8
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +33.1%

GSW +4.7%

GSW +10.5%

GSW +1.2%

GSW +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	GSW	NBA	ORL	GSW	NBA
this game	13.5	15.5	15.5	92.0	136.4	101.6
season	14.6	14.6		102.7	105.3
opponent	15.1	15.8		106.8	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	11.6	13.8	14.7	14.1	13.5
GSW	14.7	16.2	15.3	15.9	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Olumide Oyedeji	20	20	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.26	-9	-34	25	13.0	13.6	-0.58	16.4	15.3	1.20
Ryan Humphrey	29	29	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.30	-12	-31	19	14.6	13.0	1.59	15.2	15.6	-0.41
Pat Burke	46	45	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.64	-24	-19	-5	13.3	13.6	-0.21	14.9	16.0	-1.03
Andrew DeClercq	32	32	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.02	-3	-40	37	13.9	13.3	0.61	16.6	15.0	1.67
Darrell Armstrong	44	44	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.39	-20	-23	3	13.1	13.7	-0.66	15.2	15.7	-0.44
Jeryl Sasser	52	50	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.80	-35	-8	-27	13.3	13.6	-0.24	15.1	15.9	-0.84
Jacque Vaughn	63	62	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.73	-34	-9	-25	13.8	12.9	0.90	15.0	16.2	-1.19
Grant Hill	51	51	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.01	-13	-30	17	13.5	13.4	0.02	16.4	14.5	1.93
Pat Garrity	50	51	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.08	-16	-27	11	13.2	13.7	-0.44	15.1	16.0	-0.90
Shawn Kemp	51	49	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	0.49	-31	-12	-19	13.6	13.3	0.34	15.5	15.5	-0.05
Tracy McGrady	62	62	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	0.09	-18	-25	7	13.0	14.2	-1.21	15.7	15.1	0.57

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Troy Murphy	77	76	0.50	0.00	0.50	-0.53	35	8	27	16.2	13.0	3.27	13.7	12.5	1.21
Gilbert Arenas	79	79	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.55	35	8	27	15.8	14.4	1.37	13.5	13.1	0.40
Jason Richardson	67	68	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.44	27	16	11	15.2	16.1	-0.84	13.6	13.1	0.54
Erick Dampier	47	46	0.30	0.20	0.11	-0.02	11	32	-21	15.8	15.2	0.56	12.8	14.0	-1.13
Mike Dunleavy	53	55	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.26	18	25	-7	16.1	14.8	1.33	12.9	14.2	-1.31
Adonal Foyle	50	53	0.20	0.30	-0.11	-0.71	31	12	19	15.1	15.9	-0.84	14.1	12.8	1.27
Jiri Welsch	31	32	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.28	14	29	-15	14.8	15.8	-0.96	13.2	13.6	-0.40
Oscar Torres	15	13	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.20	11	32	-21	15.3	15.5	-0.27	13.6	13.4	0.18
Antawn Jamison	51	52	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.56	23	20	3	15.3	15.7	-0.41	13.9	13.0	0.84
Dean Oliver	16	15	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.22	9	34	-25	14.2	15.7	-1.56	13.0	13.5	-0.54
Danny Fortson	9	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	42	-41	12.1	15.8	-3.72	11.7	13.7	-1.95

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.74,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.77,0.82,0.9,0.93,0.95,0.9,0.96,0.95,0.92,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 73, MIL 92	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.57,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.77,0.76,0.77,0.77,0.84,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.1%
NJN 69, DET 90	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.75,0.8,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.88,0.88,0.93,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.6%
NJN 95, SAC 108	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.69,0.61,0.7,0.75,0.76,0.78,0.81,0.78,0.8,0.84,0.9,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.5%