NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	73		Excitement	4.5 [912]		MVP	Tony Parker (SAS): +10.8%
San Antonio Spurs	93		Comeback	1.8 [1035]		LVP	Troy Murphy (GSW): -14.4%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Guy Rucker	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	-0.01	-0.05	9	61%	0.09	5	-0.10	5	80%	0.02
Erick Dampier	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	5	67%	0.01	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Oscar Torres	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dean Oliver	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jiri Welsch	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	4	30%	-0.03	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Dunleavy	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.10	-0.00	-0.06	4	0%	-0.04	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	-0.06	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	14	44%	-0.05	1	-0.01	8	100%	0.03
Jason Richardson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	15	41%	-0.08	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Troy Murphy	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.12	-0.05	-0.02	15	33%	-0.06	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.01	-0.01	15	68%	0.13	2	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.02	11	52%	0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	2	67%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	6	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Steve Kerr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	5	40%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	-0.04	2	0%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	9	50%	0.03	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	11	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	0.00	13	43%	-0.03	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Bruce Bowen	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	5	80%	0.09	4	-0.16	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.7	2.6	28.2	16.8	27.2	1.8	25.2	128.5
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +51.7%

GSW -6.7%

SAS +12.9%

GSW -6.5%

GSW -1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	SAS	NBA	GSW	SAS	NBA
this game	15.9	14.6	15.5	76.8	98.9	101.6
season	14.6	15.7		105.3	102.5
opponent	15.4	15.1		96.9	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	15.5	14.2	19.8	14.1	15.9
SAS	13.3	16.4	12.0	16.6	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Oscar Torres	13	15	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.07	3	-23	26	15.7	15.9	-0.22	19.5	13.7	5.81
Guy Rucker	5	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-20	20	13.6	16.0	-2.41	11.8	14.8	-2.94
Mike Dunleavy	40	41	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.06	0	-20	20	16.3	15.6	0.72	13.6	15.4	-1.77
Erick Dampier	45	47	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.14	-8	-12	4	15.1	16.6	-1.47	15.1	14.1	1.00
Dean Oliver	22	22	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.03	-3	-17	14	14.2	16.4	-2.16	15.3	14.4	0.96
Jiri Welsch	22	21	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.24	-13	-7	-6	15.0	16.2	-1.21	13.1	15.0	-1.86
Troy Murphy	72	71	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	0.14	-17	-3	-14	15.9	15.8	0.08	14.7	14.2	0.54
Gilbert Arenas	73	72	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	0.11	-17	-3	-14	16.4	14.2	2.16	14.4	15.3	-0.96
Adonal Foyle	50	47	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.05	-12	-8	-4	16.6	15.1	1.47	14.1	15.1	-1.00
Jason Richardson	61	58	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	0.05	-17	-3	-14	15.8	16.0	-0.23	15.5	13.1	2.39
Antawn Jamison	72	70	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.04	-16	-4	-12	16.2	15.0	1.22	13.9	16.6	-2.68

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	69	71	0.53	-0.03	0.56	-0.09	21	-1	22	14.5	14.8	-0.29	16.4	14.5	1.91
Tony Parker	63	65	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.22	25	-5	30	15.3	13.2	2.03	16.6	14.3	2.36
David Robinson	48	49	0.35	0.15	0.19	-0.03	13	7	6	14.3	14.8	-0.51	16.8	14.9	1.93
Bruce Bowen	42	44	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.08	9	11	-2	14.7	14.5	0.28	17.6	14.4	3.14
Manu Ginobili	45	47	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.10	14	6	8	14.9	14.3	0.67	15.4	16.4	-1.03
Stephen Jackson	51	50	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.06	6	14	-8	14.8	14.3	0.44	16.4	15.3	1.13
Danny Ferry	37	36	0.13	0.37	-0.25	-0.02	5	15	-10	13.6	15.2	-1.68	14.5	16.7	-2.23
Malik Rose	53	52	0.07	0.43	-0.35	-0.07	5	15	-10	14.9	14.2	0.69	15.3	16.6	-1.27
Kevin Willis	18	18	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.02	1	19	-18	14.7	14.6	0.10	13.1	16.5	-3.42
Devin Brown	6	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	20	-20	11.8	14.8	-2.94	13.6	16.0	-2.41
Steve Kerr	38	38	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.06	1	19	-18	14.1	14.9	-0.89	14.2	17.0	-2.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.71,0.79,0.83,0.83,0.8,0.9,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 76, LAL 102	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.57,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.64,0.73,0.8,0.74,0.84,0.77,0.88,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
CHI 87, NOH 105	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.36,0.46,0.4,0.49,0.64,0.67,0.56,0.7,0.8,0.85,0.82,0.9,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%
CHA 92, ORL 108	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.62,0.6,0.51,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.64,0.71,0.8,0.78,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%