NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	86		Excitement	6.7 [459]		MVP	Adonal Foyle (GSW): +15.9%
Memphis Grizzlies	79		Comeback	2.0 [645]		LVP	Danny Fortson (GSW): -30.2%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Adonal Foyle	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.03	0.13	-0.00	7	57%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Mills	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08	0.01	0.06	-0.01	12	63%	0.15	3	-0.08	3	33%	-0.03
Mookie Blaylock	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.02	3	75%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Jason Richardson	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	6	67%	0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	0.01	-0.02	3	37%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	7	25%	-0.06	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Bob Sura	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	11	43%	-0.01	3	-0.09	6	50%	-0.02
Antawn Jamison	-0.11	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	7	29%	-0.04	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Larry Hughes	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	0.00	9	22%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	-0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.12,-0.16,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.23,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3	-0.13	-0.15	0.02	13	61%	0.03	9	-0.34	7	86%	0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Grant Long	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.03	0.00	5	67%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	10	52%	0.05	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Will Solomon	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.03	10	62%	0.01	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Tony Massenburg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Nick Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	7	55%	0.04	3	-0.11	6	67%	-0.02
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2	-0.20	-0.07	-0.11	0.01	20	45%	-0.10	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.02
Jason Williams	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.27,-0.27,-0.25,-0.27,-0.27,-0.28	-0.28	-0.20	-0.09	-0.00	15	34%	-0.17	4	-0.11	8	50%	-0.06
Brevin Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.21,-0.21,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.28	-0.28	-0.20	-0.09	-0.01	6	0%	-0.12	5	-0.16	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	1.8	27.2	16.7	29.1	1.8	39.3	142.1
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +51.4%

MEM -8.5%

GSW +22.4%

MEM -18.1%

GSW +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	MEM	NBA	GSW	MEM	NBA
this game	15.1	14.7	15.6	87.8	83.2	102.3
season	14.7	15.7		100.7	96.0
opponent	15.2	15.1		103.8	106.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.9	14.7	16.0	14.9	15.1
MEM	11.8	17.4	15.3	15.1	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Mills	53	50	0.78	-0.28	1.05	0.31	16	-9	25	15.4	14.7	0.72	16.2	13.1	3.05
Adonal Foyle	38	40	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.08	19	-12	31	15.7	14.7	0.95	16.2	13.7	2.53
Bob Sura	53	51	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.28	12	-5	17	15.4	14.7	0.68	16.2	13.1	3.11
Mookie Blaylock	55	54	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.25	11	-4	15	15.4	14.7	0.72	16.3	12.6	3.70
Danny Fortson	75	75	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.13	5	2	3	15.2	14.8	0.42	14.3	16.4	-2.17
Troy Murphy	27	24	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.10	5	2	3	12.7	16.0	-3.36	15.0	14.6	0.41
Larry Hughes	43	41	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.04	-4	11	-15	14.7	15.4	-0.72	12.6	16.3	-3.70
Jason Richardson	45	44	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.01	-5	12	-17	14.7	15.4	-0.68	13.1	16.2	-3.11
Erick Dampier	56	51	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.28	-15	22	-37	15.7	14.2	1.51	14.1	15.5	-1.34
Antawn Jamison	45	45	-0.28	0.78	-1.05	-0.01	-9	16	-25	14.7	15.4	-0.72	13.1	16.2	-3.05

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Will Solomon	2	3	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.02	-1	-6	5	8.5	14.9	-6.37	0.3	15.6	-15.24
Pau Gasol	59	62	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.28	9	-16	25	13.8	16.2	-2.35	15.5	14.3	1.22
Grant Long	57	57	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.08	0	-7	7	13.5	16.6	-3.03	15.5	14.6	0.93
Tony Massenburg	15	13	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.08	-8	1	-9	15.1	14.7	0.47	10.7	15.8	-5.08
Nick Anderson	12	11	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.08	-10	3	-13	17.4	14.3	3.07	9.8	15.8	-5.95
Shane Battier	81	83	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.24	0	-7	7	14.6	15.6	-0.98	15.5	12.7	2.80
Jason Williams	85	89	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.36	2	-9	11	14.7	14.7	0.04	15.7	9.2	6.47
Lorenzen Wright	80	85	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.38	1	-8	9	14.7	15.1	-0.47	15.8	10.7	5.08
Stromile Swift	35	34	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.09	-13	6	-19	16.4	13.7	2.68	15.2	15.1	0.11
Brevin Knight	49	53	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.23	-15	8	-23	15.8	13.6	2.27	14.4	16.0	-1.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.44,0.43,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.25,0.32,0.43,0.39,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.63,0.56,0.44,0.38,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.21,0.15,0.1,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 100, UTA 87	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.59,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.42,0.42,0.29,0.29,0.32,0.14,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.02,0,0,0	93.1%
GSW 113, LAC 105	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.43,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.4,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.31,0.31,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.27,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.52,0.62,0.63,0.51,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.3,0.24,0.23,0.11,0.12,0.17,0.05,0.04,0.01,0,0	93.1%
PHI 78, CHH 66	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.36,0.32,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.34,0.26,0.26,0.27,0.33,0.33,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.45,0.4,0.52,0.52,0.38,0.41,0.4,0.48,0.38,0.3,0.25,0.33,0.27,0.17,0.11,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.0%